Regional deposits and demographic changes

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between regional deposits and demographic changes. Using different types of deposit data from Japan which has experienced a sharp increase in the number of retirees, we provide clear evidence that an increase in the dependency ratio is negatively correlated with overall deposits but positively with the most liquid deposits.Regional deposits, Demographic changes, Panel cointegration, Panel DOLS

Commentary : demographic changes and international factor mobility

Population

Demographic Changes and Pension Finances in Vietnam

This paper aims to provide a long-term financial vision for the Vietnamese pension scheme using stochastic modeling for key variables under an actuarial framework. In particular, we project the pension fund balances in order to see whether the scheme will be financially sustainable. The median values of the status-quo projections show that the pension fund will be depleted in about 2052 with a 90-percent confidence interval range of 8 years. The estimated results from our sensitivity tests show that the retirement age, the indexation method for pension benefits, and the contribution rate are all crucial determinants of the pension fund balance in the long term. At the same time, some factors, including coverage rates, administrative costs, the long-term fertility rate, and the rate of return on pension fund assets play less important roles in determining the fund’s balance.aging, stochastic projections, pension finances, Vietnam

DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGES: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. AGRICULTURE

Public Economics,

Macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland : a computable general equilibrium analysis

This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small