Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research

Association of Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events in Mobility-Limited Older Adults: The LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) Study.

BACKGROUND:Data are sparse regarding the value of physical activity (PA) surveillance among older adults-particularly among those with mobility limitations. The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between objectively measured daily PA and the incidence of cardiovascular events among older adults in the LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) study. METHODS AND RESULTS:Cardiovascular events were adjudicated based on medical records review, and cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for in the analysis. Home-based activity data were collected by hip-worn accelerometers at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24&nbsp;months postrandomization to either a physical activity or health education intervention. LIFE study participants (n=1590; age 78.9±5.2 [SD] years; 67.2% women) at baseline had an 11% lower incidence of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event per 500&nbsp;steps taken per day based on activity data (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.96; P=0.001). At baseline, every 30&nbsp;minutes spent performing activities ≥500&nbsp;counts per minute (hazard ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.65-0.89 [P=0.001]) were also associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events. Throughout follow-up (6, 12, and 24&nbsp;months), both the number of steps per day (per 500&nbsp;steps; hazard ratio, 0.90, confidence interval, 0.85-0.96 [P=0.001]) and duration of activity ≥500&nbsp;counts per minute (per 30&nbsp;minutes; hazard ratio, 0.76; confidence interval, 0.63-0.90 [P=0.002]) were significantly associated with lower cardiovascular event rates. CONCLUSIONS:Objective measurements of physical activity via accelerometry were associated with cardiovascular events among older adults with limited mobility (summary score &gt;10 on the Short Physical Performance Battery) both using baseline and longitudinal data. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01072500

Mortality impacts of sulphur concetrations in 20 European cities in the APHEKOM Project

The implementation of three EU directives to reduce sulphur content in fuel was assessed for mortality impacts in 20 European cities, between 1990 and 2007 in the APHEKOM project. This specific study aimed to examine whether different lag structures apply to the relationships between cardiovascular and respiratory events and SO2 concentrations, which will therefore result in differences in mortality impacts from regulation implementation. Prior evidence has shown that cardiovascular mortality is more likely to be affected by SO2 concentrations on the same or the previous day of the event, while respiratory mortality more likely to show a delayed effect of exposure to the same pollutant

Relationship between blood pressure values, depressive symptoms and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with cardiometabolic disease

We studied joint effect of blood pressure-BP and depression on risk of major adverse cardiovascular outcome in patients with existing cardiometabolic disease. A cohort of 35537 patients with coronary heart disease, diabetes or stroke underwent depression screening and BP was recorded concurrently. We used Cox’s proportional hazards to calculate risk of major adverse cardiovascular event-MACE (myocardial infarction/heart failure/stroke or cardiovascular death) over 4 years associated with baseline BP and depression. 11% (3939) had experienced MACE within 4 years. Patients with very high systolic BP-SBP (160-240) hazard ratio-HR 1.28 and with depression (HR 1.22) at baseline had significantly higher adjusted risk. Depression had significant interaction with SBP in risk prediction (p=0.03). Patients with combination of SBP and depression at baseline had 83% higher adjusted risk of MACE, as compared to patients with reference SBP and without depression. Patients with cardiometabolic disease and comorbid depression may benefit from closer monitoring of SBP

Intensive Medical Care and Cardiovascular Disease Disability Reductions

There is little empirical evidence to explain why disability declined among the elderly over the past 20 years. In this paper, we explore the role of improved medical care for cardiovascular disease on health status improvements over time. We show that the incidence of cardiovascular disease hospitalizations remained relatively constant between 1984 and 1999 at the same time that post-event survival improved and disability declined. We find that use of appropriate therapies, including pharmaceuticals such as beta-blockers, aspirin, and ace-inhibitors, and invasive procedures, explains up to 50% and 70% of the reductions in disability and death over time, respectively. Elderly patients living in regions with high use of appropriate medical therapies had better health outcomes than patients living in low-use areas. Finally, we estimate that preventing disability after an acute event can add as much as 3.7 years of quality-adjusted life expectancy, or $316,000 of value.

Determination of Pericardial Adipose Tissue Increases the Prognostic Accuracy of Coronary Artery Calcification for Future Cardiovascular Events

Objectives: Pericardial adipose tissue (PAT) is associated with coronary artery plaque accumulation and the incidence of coronary heart disease. We evaluated the possible incremental prognostic value of PAT for future cardiovascular events. Methods: 145 patients (94 males, age 60 10 years) with stable coronary artery disease underwent coronary artery calcification (CAC) scanning in a multislice CT scanner, and the volume of pericardial fat was measured. Mean observation time was 5.4 years. Results: 34 patients experienced a severe cardiac event. They had a significantly higher CAC score (1,708 +/- 2,269 vs. 538 +/- 1,150, p 400, 3.5 (1.9-5.4; p = 0.007) for scores > 800 and 5.9 (3.7-7.8; p = 0.005) for scores > 1,600. When additionally a PAT volume > 200 cm(3) was determined, there was a significant increase in the event rate and relative risk. We calculated a relative risk of 2.9 (1.9-4.2; p = 0.01) for scores > 400, 4.0 (2.1-5.0; p = 0.006) for scores > 800 and 7.1 (4.1-10.2; p = 0.005) for scores > 1,600. Conclusions:The additional determination of PAT increases the predictive power of CAC for future cardiovascular events. PAT might therefore be used as a further parameter for risk stratification. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base