Analysis of the ensemble Kalman filter for inverse problems

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a widely used methodology for state estimation in partial, noisily observed dynamical systems, and for parameter estimation in inverse problems. Despite its widespread use in the geophysical sciences, and its gradual adoption in many other areas of application, analysis of the method is in its infancy. Furthermore, much of the existing analysis deals with the large ensemble limit, far from the regime in which the method is typically used. The goal of this paper is to analyze the method when applied to inverse problems with fixed ensemble size. A continuous-time limit is derived and the long-time behavior of the resulting dynamical system is studied. Most of the rigorous analysis is confined to the linear forward problem, where we demonstrate that the continuous time limit of the EnKF corresponds to a set of gradient flows for the data misfit in each ensemble member, coupled through a common pre-conditioner which is the empirical covariance matrix of the ensemble. Numerical results demonstrate that the conclusions of the analysis extend beyond the linear inverse problem setting. Numerical experiments are also given which demonstrate the benefits of various extensions of the basic methodology

The Bayesian Formulation of EIT: Analysis and Algorithms

We provide a rigorous Bayesian formulation of the EIT problem in an infinite dimensional setting, leading to well-posedness in the Hellinger metric with respect to the data. We focus particularly on the reconstruction of binary fields where the interface between different media is the primary unknown. We consider three different prior models - log-Gaussian, star-shaped and level set. Numerical simulations based on the implementation of MCMC are performed, illustrating the advantages and disadvantages of each type of prior in the reconstruction, in the case where the true conductivity is a binary field, and exhibiting the properties of the resulting posterior distribution.Comment: 30 pages, 10 figure

Gaussian Approximations of Small Noise Diffusions in Kullback-Leibler Divergence

We study Gaussian approximations to the distribution of a diffusion. The approximations are easy to compute: they are defined by two simple ordinary differential equations for the mean and the covariance. Time correlations can also be computed via solution of a linear stochastic differential equation. We show, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence, that the approximations are accurate in the small noise regime. An analogous discrete time setting is also studied. The results provide both theoretical support for the use of Gaussian processes in the approximation of diffusions, and methodological guidance in the construction of Gaussian approximations in applications

Inverse optimal transport

Discrete optimal transportation problems arise in various contexts in engineering, the sciences and the social sciences. Often the underlying cost criterion is unknown, or only partly known, and the observed optimal solutions are corrupted by noise. In this paper we propose a systematic approach to infer unknown costs from noisy observations of optimal transportation plans. The algorithm requires only the ability to solve the forward optimal transport problem, which is a linear program, and to generate random numbers. It has a Bayesian interpretation, and may also be viewed as a form of stochastic optimization. We illustrate the developed methodologies using the example of international migration flows. Reported migration flow data captures (noisily) the number of individuals moving from one country to another in a given period of time. It can be interpreted as a noisy observation of an optimal transportation map, with costs related to the geographical position of countries. We use a graph-based formulation of the problem, with countries at the nodes of graphs and non-zero weighted adjacencies only on edges between countries which share a border. We use the proposed algorithm to estimate the weights, which represent cost of transition, and to quantify uncertainty in these weights

Hyperparameter Estimation in Bayesian MAP Estimation: Parameterizations and Consistency

The Bayesian formulation of inverse problems is attractive for three primary reasons: it provides a clear modelling framework; means for uncertainty quantification; and it allows for principled learning of hyperparameters. The posterior distribution may be explored by sampling methods, but for many problems it is computationally infeasible to do so. In this situation maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators are often sought. Whilst these are relatively cheap to compute, and have an attractive variational formulation, a key drawback is their lack of invariance under change of parameterization. This is a particularly significant issue when hierarchical priors are employed to learn hyperparameters. In this paper we study the effect of the choice of parameterization on MAP estimators when a conditionally Gaussian hierarchical prior distribution is employed. Specifically we consider the centred parameterization, the natural parameterization in which the unknown state is solved for directly, and the noncentred parameterization, which works with a whitened Gaussian as the unknown state variable, and arises when considering dimension-robust MCMC algorithms; MAP estimation is well-defined in the nonparametric setting only for the noncentred parameterization. However, we show that MAP estimates based on the noncentred parameterization are not consistent as estimators of hyperparameters; conversely, we show that limits of finite-dimensional centred MAP estimators are consistent as the dimension tends to infinity. We also consider empirical Bayesian hyperparameter estimation, show consistency of these estimates, and demonstrate that they are more robust with respect to noise than centred MAP estimates. An underpinning concept throughout is that hyperparameters may only be recovered up to measure equivalence, a well-known phenomenon in the context of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.Comment: 36 pages, 8 figure

Gaussian approximations for transition paths in Brownian dynamics

This paper is concerned with transition paths within the framework of the overdamped Langevin dynamics model of chemical reactions. We aim to give an efficient description of typical transition paths in the small temperature regime. We adopt a variational point of view and seek the best Gaussian approximation, with respect to Kullback-Leibler divergence, of the non-Gaussian distribution of the diffusion process. We interpret the mean of this Gaussian approximation as the "most likely path" and the covariance operator as a means to capture the typical fluctuations around this most likely path. We give an explicit expression for the Kullback-Leibler divergence in terms of the mean and the covariance operator for a natural class of Gaussian approximations and show the existence of minimisers for the variational problem. Then the low temperature limit is studied via $\Gamma$-convergence of the associated variational problem. The limiting functional consists of two parts: The first part only depends on the mean and coincides with the $\Gamma$-limit of the Freidlin-Wentzell rate functional. The second part depends on both, the mean and the covariance operator and is minimized if the dynamics are given by a time-inhomogenous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process found by linearization of the Langevin dynamics around the Freidlin-Wentzell minimizer.Comment: 42 page

Bayesian Posterior Contraction Rates for Linear Severely Ill-posed Inverse Problems

We consider a class of linear ill-posed inverse problems arising from inversion of a compact operator with singular values which decay exponentially to zero. We adopt a Bayesian approach, assuming a Gaussian prior on the unknown function. If the observational noise is assumed to be Gaussian then this prior is conjugate to the likelihood so that the posterior distribution is also Gaussian. We study Bayesian posterior consistency in the small observational noise limit. We assume that the forward operator and the prior and noise covariance operators commute with one another. We show how, for given smoothness assumptions on the truth, the scale parameter of the prior can be adjusted to optimize the rate of posterior contraction to the truth, and we explicitly compute the logarithmic rate.Comment: 25 pages, 2 figure

MAP Estimators for Piecewise Continuous Inversion

We study the inverse problem of estimating a field $u$ from data comprising a finite set of nonlinear functionals of $u$, subject to additive noise; we denote this observed data by $y$. Our interest is in the reconstruction of piecewise continuous fields in which the discontinuity set is described by a finite number of geometric parameters. Natural applications include groundwater flow and electrical impedance tomography. We take a Bayesian approach, placing a prior distribution on $u$ and determining the conditional distribution on $u$ given the data $y$. It is then natural to study maximum a posterior (MAP) estimators. Recently (Dashti et al 2013) it has been shown that MAP estimators can be characterised as minimisers of a generalised Onsager-Machlup functional, in the case where the prior measure is a Gaussian random field. We extend this theory to a more general class of prior distributions which allows for piecewise continuous fields. Specifically, the prior field is assumed to be piecewise Gaussian with random interfaces between the different Gaussians defined by a finite number of parameters. We also make connections with recent work on MAP estimators for linear problems and possibly non-Gaussian priors (Helin, Burger 2015) which employs the notion of Fomin derivative. In showing applicability of our theory we focus on the groundwater flow and EIT models, though the theory holds more generally. Numerical experiments are implemented for the groundwater flow model, demonstrating the feasibility of determining MAP estimators for these piecewise continuous models, but also that the geometric formulation can lead to multiple nearby (local) MAP estimators. We relate these MAP estimators to the behaviour of output from MCMC samples of the posterior, obtained using a state-of-the-art function space Metropolis-Hastings method.Comment: 53 pages, 21 figure