Forecasting Class III and Class IV Milk Prices

Despite the growing volume, trading in milk remains small in comparison to grain and livestock. Part of the reason for limited trading volume is that dairy futures trading is very new compared to grain and livestock trading. There is less experience with risk management strategies and a much smaller research base with respect to basis relationships and price forecasting. Dairy farmers are still "feeling their way." The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic, user-friendly method for forecasting Class III and Class IV prices. The user is allowed to vary regional milk production and stocks of manufactured dairy products to evaluate the sensitivity of point estimates. A sequential process is developed to predict Class III milk prices up to 12 months in advance using widely-published outlook data as predictor variables. The first stage involves deriving monthly U.S. milk supply forecasts using trend extrapolations for regional milk cow numbers and milk production per cow. Users may modify trend values based on personal expectations. In the second stage, the projected monthly U.S. milk supply is allocated to Class III and Class IV manufactured products (butter, cheddar cheese, nonfat dry milk, and dry whey). Underlying these forecasts is a set of econometric relationships that estimate production of the manufactured products based on total milk production and other variables.

Regional Trends in U.S. Milk Production: Analysis and Projections

Livestock Production/Industries,

The intravascular volume effect of Ringer's lactate is below 20%: a prospective study in humans

Introduction: Isotonic crystalloids play a central role in perioperative fluid management. Isooncotic preparations of colloids (for example, human albumin or hydroxyethyl starch) remain nearly completely intravascular when infused to compensate for acute blood losses. Recent data were interpreted to indicate a comparable intravascular volume effect for crystalloids, challenging the occasionally suggested advantage of using colloids to treat hypovolemia. General physiological knowledge and clinical experience, however, suggest otherwise. Methods: In a prospective study, double-tracer blood volume measurements were performed before and after intended normovolemic hemodilution in ten female adults, simultaneously substituting the three-fold amount of withdrawn blood with Ringer's lactate. Any originated deficits were substituted with half the volume of 20% human albumin, followed by a further assessment of blood volume. To assess significance between the measurements, repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) according to Fisher were performed. If significant results were shown, paired t tests (according to Student) for the singular measurements were taken. P < 0.05 was considered to be significant. Results: A total of 1,097 +/- 285 ml of whole blood were withdrawn (641 +/- 155 ml/m2 body surface area) and simultaneously replaced by 3,430 +/- 806 ml of Ringer's lactate. All patients showed a significant decrease in blood volume after hemodilution (-459 +/- 185 ml; P < 0.05) that did not involve relevant hemodynamical changes, and a significant increase in interstitial water content (+ 2,157 +/- 606 ml; P < 0.05). The volume effect of Ringer's lactate was 17 +/- 10%. The infusion of 245 +/- 64 ml of 20% human albumin in this situation restored blood volume back to baseline values, the volume effect being 184 +/- 63%. Conclusions: Substitution of isolated intravascular deficits in cardiopulmonary healthy adults with the three-fold amount of Ringer's lactate impedes maintenance of intravascular normovolemia. The main side effect was an impressive interstitial fluid accumulation, which was partly restored by the intravenous infusion of 20% human albumin. We recommend to substitute the five-fold amount of crystalloids or to use an isooncotic preparation in the face of acute bleeding in patients where edema prevention might be advantageous

Conservation Genetics of the Philippine Tarsier: Cryptic Genetic Variation Restructures Conservation Priorities for an Island Archipelago Primate

Acknowledgments We thank the Philippine Department of Environment and Natural Resources for facilitating research, sample collection, and export permits (in particular T. M. Lim, C. Custodio, J. deLeon, and A. Tagtag) necessary for this and related research. Sampling protocols were approved by the University of Kansas Animal Care and Use Committee (IACUC 158-01 to RMB) and protocols to capture, sedate, and harvest ear biopsies from wild tarsiers were approved by the Dartmouth Animal Care and Use Committee (IACUC 10-11-12 and 11-06-06AT to NJD). Thanks are due to J. Quilang for assistance with data and comments on the manuscript. We thank N. Antoque, J. Cantil, and V. Yngente for assistance in the field and anonymous reviewers for comments on previous versions of the manuscript.Author Contributions Conceived and designed the experiments: RMB JAW CDS JAE MS MLD ACD. Performed the experiments: RMB MRMD LVD INA JAE NJD PSO AL MLD ACD CDS. Analyzed the data: KVO AJB CDS. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: RMB KVO AJB CDS JAE LVD GLM. Wrote the paper: RMB JAW CDS JAE MS GLM. Obtained permission and executed field surveys: RMB MRMD LVD MS INA JAE NJD PSO GLM AL MLD ACD CDS.Establishment of conservation priorities for primates is a particular concern in the island archipelagos of Southeast Asia, where rates of habitat destruction are among the highest in the world. Conservation programs require knowledge of taxonomic diversity to ensure success. The Philippine tarsier is a flagship species that promotes environmental awareness and a thriving ecotourism economy in the Philippines. However, assessment of its conservation status has been impeded by taxonomic uncertainty, a paucity of field studies, and a lack of vouchered specimens and genetic samples available for study in biodiversity repositories. Consequently, conservation priorities are unclear. In this study we use mitochondrial and nuclear DNA to empirically infer geographic partitioning of genetic variation and to identify evolutionarily distinct lineages for conservation action. The distribution of Philippine tarsier genetic diversity is neither congruent with expectations based on biogeographical patterns documented in other Philippine vertebrates, nor does it agree with the most recent Philippine tarsier taxonomic arrangement. We identify three principal evolutionary lineages that do not correspond to the currently recognized subspecies, highlight the discovery of a novel cryptic and range-restricted subcenter of genetic variation in an unanticipated part of the archipelago, and identify additional geographically structured genetic variation that should be the focus of future studies and conservation action. Conservation of this flagship species necessitates establishment of protected areas and targeted conservation programs within the range of each genetically distinct variant of the Philippine tarsier.Support for fieldwork was provided by the University of Kansas Biodiversity Institute and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology (to RMB, CDS, and JAE), the National Geographic Society (NGS 8446-08 to RMB, JAW, MS and INA), funds from the Primate Action Fund (to MS), Ewha Womans University (Ewha Global Top5 Grant 2013 to MS), the David and Lucile Packard Foundation (Fellowship in Science and Engineering no. 2007-31754, to NJD), and U.S. National Science Foundation (DEB 0743491 to RMB). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Yeshttp://www.plosone.org/static/editorial#pee

Mocash: A Computer Spreadsheet for Projecting Monthly Cash Flows

E.B. 2001-03This Excel worksheet is designed to assist in the development of monthly cash flow projections for the coming year (referred to as next year) based on the receipt and expense occurrences of the prior, or a base, year (referred to as this year). This is an historical base model, not a budget based model. Receipt and expense data for this year for the farm being projected must be available, broken down on a monthly basis for each category. Monthly cash flow projections for next year are an essential part of effective capital management in any business. They are used: (1) to develop a plan to avoid cash flow problems, (2) to plan for efficient use of capital, (3) to determine the operating, or line of credit, needs of the business for the year, (4) to identify expected term credit needs, and (5) as a basis for monitoring the business to identify issues that need management attention (management by exception). This program does not project cash flows. It provides the framework, does the arithmetic and transfers data from one worksheet to the next. A useful cash flow projection can be made only if considerable thought is given to the individual receipt and expense items and the expected operation of the business for next year. A cash flow projection that mindlessly changes each item by the planned change in herd size or acres will be of little value. Keep in mind that: (1) Budgeting is not an exact science and the idea is only to be in the ballpark with your projections of the coming year(s). Projected data will never exactly predict the future, but it should be close enough to provide a basis for management decisions and for evaluation of actual occurrences. (2) Miracles rarely occur. Do not to build large productivity changes or other unsubstantiated changes in the budget. The past performance of a business is usually a good predictor of the future. There is a cause for every financial result. Use causal logic in projecting cash flows. Think about what causes each expense and receipt item. See Table 1 for ideas

FORECASTING CLASS III AND CLASS IV MILK PRICES

Despite the growing volume, trading in milk remains small in comparison to grain and livestock. Part of the reason for limited trading volume is that dairy futures trading is very new compared to grain and livestock trading. There is less experience with risk management strategies and a much smaller research base with respect to basis relationships and price forecasting. Dairy farmers are still "feeling their way." The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic, user-friendly method for forecasting Class III and Class IV prices. The user is allowed to vary regional milk production and stocks of manufactured dairy products to evaluate the sensitivity of point estimates. A sequential process is developed to predict Class III milk prices up to 12 months in advance using widely-published outlook data as predictor variables. The first stage involves deriving monthly U.S. milk supply forecasts using trend extrapolations for regional milk cow numbers and milk production per cow. Users may modify trend values based on personal expectations. In the second stage, the projected monthly U.S. milk supply is allocated to Class III and Class IV manufactured products (butter, cheddar cheese, nonfat dry milk, and dry whey). Underlying these forecasts is a set of econometric relationships that estimate production of the manufactured products based on total milk production and other variables

Linking Manure Best Management Practices to Improved Compost Production

BACKGROUND: The Northern Forest Compost Collaborative (NFCC) project was conceived by several farmers located in central New York State. These farms were interested in improving the production and quality of farm composts. Cornell Waste Management Institute (CWMI) and WASTE NOT Resource Solutions (Waste Not) worked with the farms to develop a proposal that would facilitate the development and exploration of a collaborative that would share equipment, technical assistance, supplies and farmer-to-farmer knowledge with the intent of improving compost production and end-use practices.NYS Department of Economic Development, Environmental Services Uni