Dampak Alokasi Anggaran Pengeluaran Pembangunan terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia: suatu Analisis Simulasi Kebijakan

This study aims (1) to construct Econometric Input-Output Model for Indonesia,which emphasizes the linkage between sectors, and (2) to analyze the impact of budgetallocation policy of development expenditure on Indonesian economy.The model, which construct by combining the advantages of input-output modeland econometric model, is called Model Input-Output Ekonometrika Indonesia. Themodel consists of 112 dynamic simultaneous equations, and it uses secondary data from1980-2000. The equation\u27s parameters are estimated by using the combination of threeestimation methods: (1) Ordinary Least Squares, (2) First Order of Autoregressive, and(3) Second Order of Autoregressive. The model is validated by Gauss-Siedel Methodand it is used for policy simulation analysis of budget development expenditure.The study shows that the impact of budget reallocation of developmentexpenditure on Indonesian economy (final demand, output, income, and sectoralemployment) is better than the budget allocation of development expenditure inRAPBN (National Budgetary Plan) 2002. Plantation sector gave the highestcontribution in supporting the output multiplier and high income. Furthermore, the food,beverages, and tobacco industries gave the highest contribution in creating highemployment multiplier

Penggunaan Pangsa Pengeluaran Pangan sebagai Indikator Komposit Ketahanan Pangan

Many indicator can use for measuring food security, one of that is food expenditure share. The objective of this research are in order to: (1) account individual food expenditure share and (2) analyze the relation of food expenditure share and food security. The econometrics approach was used to analyze the available data. This analysis is using Susenas data for 1996, 1999, and 2002 and province PDRB data 2002. The result was indicated that food expenditure share is feasible as indicator for food security because had strong relation with some measuring of food security e.g. consumption, food diversivication, and income

Pemberdayaan dan Kegiatan Petani Multikomoditi di Pedesaan Propinsi Maluku: suatu Kajian Ekonomi Rumahtangga

This study aim to evaluate succession implementing the multicommodity farmers empowering programand to analysis, the impact of external factors change toward farmer's decision. The farmer's activity analyzedwith simultaneous econometrics equation approach in the household economic model. Result of the studynamely implementing of the empowering program only success technically, but not success increase thefarmer's welfare. Utilize and allocation of the labor, agricultural product and farmers disposible income haveincreased caused by increase of the commodity prices, wages and non agricultural income. The farmers shouldincrease the activity motivation and to utilize the effort opportunity available. Program owner need toimprovement the performance in implemented theirs program, in order always orientation to autonomy thefarmers

Estimasi Nilai Ekonomi Air Irigasi Dan Strategi Pemanfaatannya Dalam Penentuan Iuran Irigasi

The study is aimed to valuate irrigation water and to assess its prospect forwater pricing strategy, and implication of optimal cropping pattern on farm\u27s incomeand rice production. Mathematical programming is applied for the valuation. Strategyof water pricing based on the reconciling efficiency and equity concern. Results of thestudy show that shadow price of irrigation water were equal to zero on December–Mayand positive on June–November. Within the positive period, the lowest and highestprices were taken place on June and September respectively. Monthly average of theshadow price was Rp. 40 700/(l/sec), which is equivalent with Rp. 15.75/m3. It isfeasible to apply the shadow price for determining ceiling rate of irrigation watercharges. Potential method of water pricing is combination of per unit area in wet seasonand per crop pricing in dry season. Implementation of optimal cropping pattern as wellas water pricing was potential to improve both farm\u27s income and irrigation efficiency,but disincentive to increase rice production

Keterkaitan Sektor Ekonomi dan Distribusi Pendapatan di Jawa: Pendekatan Social Accounting Matrix

The objective of this study is to analyze economic sectors linkages, output multipliers, value added multipliers, and household income distribution in Java. The results of this study find that: (1) food, beverages, and tobacco industry sectors, and trade, hotel and restaurant sectors, tend to market oriented, so that less linkages with other sectors in backward to growth, (2) forestry and hunting sectors have small linkages vertically with wood and wood products industry, (3) economic injection of any sectors is in favor of household groups in the urban than household groups in the rural, (4) in general, distribution of the increase household income in Java is tend to divergent. If Indonesian government can reordering position of food, beverages and tobacco industry, and trade, hotel and restaurant sectors, it will increase output of other sectors, and then will reduce unemployment and poverty

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Perilaku Pasar Jagung Di Indonesia

EnglishThe study focused on factors affecting market behavior of corn in Indonesia, and market responses. Data of the study are time series for the period of 1980-2001. Model used in the study was Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS). The results revealed that production technology improvement should get priority as the means of increasing corn production. Rupiah exchange rate was the main variable affecting Indonesia\u27s import volume of corn. Demand for corn for feed production was determined by own price of corn rather than feed price. Corn is inferiod food to most Indonesians. In the long term, world prices of corn will be determined mainly by its supply and demand. On the other hand, domestic price of corn in long term will be determined mainly by world price of corn rather than domestic corn market power.IndonesianPenelitian ini difokuskan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku pasar jagung Indonesia, serta tingkat responsif pasar tersebut terhadap faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series periode 1980-2001. Pendekatan model ekonometrika persamaan simultan dengan metode pendugaan Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) telah digunakan untuk menjawab tujuan penelitian ini. Hasil pendugaan menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan produksi jagung sebaiknya diprioritaskan pada perbaikan teknologi produksi dibanding instrumen lainnya. Nilai tukar rupiah merupakan peubah utama yang berpengaruh terhadap volume impor jagung Indonesia. Permintaan jagung untuk pakan lebih banyak ditentukan oleh harga jagung itu sendiri dibanding harga pakan. Terutama dalam jangka panjang, harga jagung dunia secara kuat akan ditentukan oleh sisi penawaran dan permintaan. Sementara itu, harga jagung domestik dalam jangka panjang lebih banyak akan ditentukan oleh harga jagung dunia dibanding kekuatan pasar jagung domestik

Dampak Kebijakan Ekonomi di Sektor Agroindustri terhadap Distribusi Pendapatan Sektoral, Tenaga Kerja dan Rumahtangga di Indonesia: Analisis Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi

The research objective is to analyze the impact of government expenditure, export, investment and tax policy in agroindustry sector on sectoral, labor and household income distribution. The analysisi using Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model. Result of policy simulation in agroindustry sector is used for further analysis of income distribution using SAM and SUSENAS data. The result show that export, investment and tax insentive policy in agroindustry sector has positive impact to improve sectoral, labor and household income distribution. Export and investment policy in food agroindustry give a greater impact on income distribution compare to non food agroindustry. The most effective policy to improve income distribution is to increase investment in priority industries of agroindustry

Dampak Kebijakan Domestik dan Perubahan Faktor Eksternal terhadap Industri Minyak Goreng Indonesia

Minyak goreng merupakan salah satu komoditas penting penghasildevisa bagi Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji dampakkebijakan domestik dan Perubahan faktor eksternal terhadap industriminyak goreng Indonesia, dengan pendekatan sistem yang menggunakanmodel ekonometrika dalam bentuk persamaan simultan. Data yangdigunakan adalah data sekunder yang terkait dengan produksi, volume danharga perdagangan domestik, volume dan harga ekspor, dalam bentuk dataderet waktu tahun 1978-2001. Pendugaan parameter dilakukan denganmetode two stage least squares (2SLS). Untuk mengevaluasi dampakkebijakan domestik dan Perubahan faktor eksternal, dilakukan simulasimodel untuk periode 1992-1996 yang menggambarkan kondisi sebelumterjadi krisis ekonomi, dan 1998-2001 menggambarkan kondisi saat terjadikrisis ekonomi. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan hargaCPO di pasar dunia pada kedua periode menyebabkan peningkatan ekspor.Kebijakan pengenaan pajak ekspor minyak sawit mentah (CPO) danpeningkatan harga minyak goreng sawit domestik cukup efektif menekanekspor. Pada periode 1992-1996 kebijakan pengenaan pajak ekspor CPOmenyebabkan penurunan penerimaan devisa 1,114 persen (Rp 17,092miliar). Peningkatan harga minyak goreng domestik pada periode 1992-1996 menyebabkan penurunan penerimaan devisa 21,458 persen (Rp329,187 miliar) tetapi pada periode 1998-2001 dampak tersebut dinetralisiroleh penurunan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap US$. Implikasi dari kondisidemikian adalah perlunya optimalisasi pajak ekspor. Penetapan pajakekspor pada tingkat yang menyebabkan penurunan penerimaan devisasebaiknya tidak dilakukan. Dampak peningkatan ekspor terhadappenurunan ketersediaan bahan baku minyak goreng domestik dapatdiminimalkan dengan mendorong reorientasi pasar minyak kelapa mentah(CCO) dari ekspor ke pasar domestik. Langkah yang diperlukan adalahmenghidupkan kembali industri kelapa dengan pengembangan industripengolahan lanjut minyak goreng berbahan baku CCO, seperti oleokimia,sehingga meningkatkan nilai tambah dan memberi insentif bagi petani danpelaku industri kelapa