La demanda de circulante y el tamaño de la economía oculta: revisión de un método de estimación con una ilustración para la Argentina

Este trabajo se concentra en el análisis crítico del uso del llamado método monetario, basado en la demanda de circulante para obtener una medida del tamaño de la economía oculta y aplica las conclusiones obtenidas a dos períodos de la economía argentina: 1930- 1983 y 1991-19994 . En la primera parte se resume la evolución que ha tenido el método monetario. En la segunda sección se expone la metodología que utiliza la estimación econométrica de la demanda de circulante como herramienta y se obtienen las condiciones que debe cumplir uno de los parámetros, la elasticidad–ingreso, para que los resultados sean consistentes. La tercera parte se dedica a obtener un método adecuado de cálculo del tamaño de la economía oculta cuando no se cumple la condición de consistencia obtenida en la sección anterior y se comprueba que la metodología propuesta incluye a la tradicional como un caso particular. En la cuarta sección se presentan, como ilustración, cálculos del tamaño de la economía oculta para Argentina, corregidos con la metodología propuesta en la sección anterior. La última sección se dedica a las conclusiones.Facultad de Ciencias Económica

Implications for driving based on the risk of seizures after ischaemic stroke

Background: In addition to other stroke-related deficits, the risk of seizures may impact driving ability after stroke. Methods: We analysed data from a multicentre international cohort, including 4452 adults with acute ischaemic stroke and no prior seizures. We calculated the Chance of Occurrence of Seizure in the next Year (COSY) according to the SeLECT$_{2.0}$prognostic model. We considered COSY<20% safe for private and <2% for professional driving, aligning with commonly used cut-offs. Results: Seizure risks in the next year were mainly influenced by the baseline risk-stratified according to the SeLECT$_{2.0}$score and, to a lesser extent, by the poststroke seizure-free interval (SFI). Those without acute symptomatic seizures (SeLECT$_{2.0}$0–6 points) had low COSY (0.7%–11%) immediately after stroke, not requiring an SFI. In stroke survivors with acute symptomatic seizures (SeLECT$_{2.0}$3–13 points), COSY after a 3-month SFI ranged from 2% to 92%, showing substantial interindividual variability. Stroke survivors with acute symptomatic status epilepticus (SeLECT$_{2.0}$7–13 points) had the highest risk (14%–92%). Conclusions: Personalised prognostic models, such as SeLECT$_{2.0}$, may offer better guidance for poststroke driving decisions than generic SFIs. Our findings provide practical tools, including a smartphone-based or web-based application, to assess seizure risks and determine appropriate SFIs for safe driving

Association of Mortality and Risk of Epilepsy With Type of Acute Symptomatic Seizure After Ischemic Stroke and an Updated Prognostic Model

IMPORTANCE: Acute symptomatic seizures occurring within 7 days after ischemic stroke may be associated with an increased mortality and risk of epilepsy. It is unknown whether the type of acute symptomatic seizure influences this risk. OBJECTIVE: To compare mortality and risk of epilepsy following different types of acute symptomatic seizures. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study analyzed data acquired from 2002 to 2019 from 9 tertiary referral centers. The derivation cohort included adults from 7 cohorts and 2 case-control studies with neuroimaging-confirmed ischemic stroke and without a history of seizures. Replication in 3 separate cohorts included adults with acute symptomatic status epilepticus after neuroimaging-confirmed ischemic stroke. The final data analysis was performed in July 2022. EXPOSURES: Type of acute symptomatic seizure. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause mortality and epilepsy (at least 1 unprovoked seizure presenting >7 days after stroke). RESULTS: A total of 4552 adults were included in the derivation cohort (2547 male participants [56%]; 2005 female [44%]; median age, 73 years [IQR, 62-81]). Acute symptomatic seizures occurred in 226 individuals (5%), of whom 8 (0.2%) presented with status epilepticus. In patients with acute symptomatic status epilepticus, 10-year mortality was 79% compared with 30% in those with short acute symptomatic seizures and 11% in those without seizures. The 10-year risk of epilepsy in stroke survivors with acute symptomatic status epilepticus was 81%, compared with 40% in survivors with short acute symptomatic seizures and 13% in survivors without seizures. In a replication cohort of 39 individuals with acute symptomatic status epilepticus after ischemic stroke (24 female; median age, 78 years), the 10-year risk of mortality and epilepsy was 76% and 88%, respectively. We updated a previously described prognostic model (SeLECT 2.0) with the type of acute symptomatic seizures as a covariate. SeLECT 2.0 successfully captured cases at high risk of poststroke epilepsy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, individuals with stroke and acute symptomatic seizures presenting as status epilepticus had a higher mortality and risk of epilepsy compared with those with short acute symptomatic seizures or no seizures. The SeLECT 2.0 prognostic model adequately reflected the risk of epilepsy in high-risk cases and may inform decisions on the continuation of antiseizure medication treatment and the methods and frequency of follow-up

Metropolization in Argentina

A partir de la regla de "orden-magnitud" el trabajo formula el concepto de "metropolización" (Smger) y explicita su relación con el índice de urbanización usual. Rastrea la evolución de la metropolización en Argentina a través de sus ocho censos, tanto para el conjunto de todos los centros urbanos como para tres subconjuntos: grandes, medianos y pequeños. El trabajo presenta después la idea de economías de "concentración geográfica" de las actividades (Lösch), explorando su relación -bajo supuestos restrictivos- con la metropolización. Finalmente, ilustra dicha relación con datos provenientes de los ocho censos, mostrando la tendencia hacia la concentración de roles económicos en las ciudades grandes.Starting from the "rank-size" rule the paper formulates the concept of "metropolization" (Singer) and unveils its relation with the conventional "urbanization" index. It taces the evolution of metrolization in Argentina through its eight censuses, both for the set of all urban centers and for three subsets: large, medium and small ones. The paper also introduces the idea of economies of "geographical concentration" of activities (Lösch) and explores -under restrictive assumptions- its relation with metropolization. It finally estimates such relation with data from tha Argentine censuses, showing the tendency towards the concentration of economic roles in larger cities.Instituto de Investigaciones Económica

Metropolization in Argentina

A partir de la regla de "orden-magnitud" el trabajo formula el concepto de "metropolización" (Smger) y explicita su relación con el índice de urbanización usual. Rastrea la evolución de la metropolización en Argentina a través de sus ocho censos, tanto para el conjunto de todos los centros urbanos como para tres subconjuntos: grandes, medianos y pequeños. El trabajo presenta después la idea de economías de "concentración geográfica" de las actividades (Lösch), explorando su relación -bajo supuestos restrictivos- con la metropolización. Finalmente, ilustra dicha relación con datos provenientes de los ocho censos, mostrando la tendencia hacia la concentración de roles económicos en las ciudades grandes.Starting from the "rank-size" rule the paper formulates the concept of "metropolization" (Singer) and unveils its relation with the conventional "urbanization" index. It taces the evolution of metrolization in Argentina through its eight censuses, both for the set of all urban centers and for three subsets: large, medium and small ones. The paper also introduces the idea of economies of "geographical concentration" of activities (Lösch) and explores -under restrictive assumptions- its relation with metropolization. It finally estimates such relation with data from tha Argentine censuses, showing the tendency towards the concentration of economic roles in larger cities.Instituto de Investigaciones Económica