15 research outputs found

    Supplementary appendices and figures from Implications of asymptomatic carriers for infectious disease transmission and control

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    A. Details of the literature review; B--D. Additional calculations; E. List of parameter values used for plots in each figure; Supplementary figures S1--S4

    Additional file 4: of Social encounter profiles of greater Melbourne residents, by location – a telephone survey

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    Additional Results. Additional results including details on number and duration of physical contact encounters, and duration of encounters for each household size by contact type (known/unknown) and location type (home/outside). (PDF 1275 kb

    Effect of improved health care system capacity.

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    <p>Starting with a baseline case ascertainment of 80% and a small health care system (0.1% of population are HCWs, 1:15 and 1:50 ratio of bed and contact-tracing capacities to HCWs, as above), this figure shows the effect of doubling both the health care capacity and the health care workforce at different times after the first detected case. This increase in capacity represents the transition from a small health care system to a medium health care system, as defined in <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005018#pntd.0005018.g005" target="_blank">Fig 5</a>. This clearly shows the importance of early detection; the time delay in delivering the additional capacity is less important over this timescale of 0–8 weeks, because the existing health care system is capable of accommodating patients in the early stage of the outbreak.</p

    Effect of increased case ascertainment.

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    <p>Starting with a baseline case ascertainment of 20%, this figure shows the effect of boosting ascertainment to 100% (i.e., perfect detection) at different times after the first detected case. This clearly shows the simultaneous importance of early detection and high ascertainment; provision of one is not a substitute for lack of the other.</p

    Effect of behavioural interventions in Southern region.

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    <p>The effect of reducing the force of infection in the community and/or from dead bodies by 25%, in the rural population of the Southern region where community transmission is low. When transmission is reduced in both settings, the overall force of infection is sufficiently low that uncontrolled outbreaks never occur.</p

    The Ebola model.

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    <p>The natural history of infection comprises susceptibility (S), exposure (E) at a rate determined by the force of infection β and the current prevalence of infectious individuals and unburied dead bodies. Exposed individuals progress to mild infectiousness prior to developing symptoms (I0) at rate σ, and symptomatic infection (I) at rate γ<sub>0</sub>, followed by either death (D) or recovery (R) at rate γ<sub>1</sub>. The proportion of infections leading to death or recovery is informed by estimates of the case fatality ratio (CFR). Dead bodies remain infectious prior to burial (B) at rate τ. Ascertainment of cases (with probability p<sub>asc</sub>) allows symptomatic individuals to be hospitalised in isolation wards (H), which reduces their contribution to transmission and increases their probability of recovery. Full equations describing the model are provided in Model description in <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005018#pntd.0005018.s001" target="_blank">S1 Methods</a>.</p
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