Earthquake forecasting and its verification

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver) operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances

Earthquake detection capability of the Swiss Seismic Network

A reliable estimate of completeness magnitudes is vital for many seismicity- and hazard-related studies. Here we adopted and further developed the Probability-based Magnitude of Completeness (PMC) method. This method determines network detection completeness (MP) using only empirical data: earthquake catalogue, phase picks and station information. To evaluate the applicability to low- or moderate-seismicity regions, we performed a case study in Switzerland. The Swiss Seismic Network (SSN) at present is recording seismicity with one of the densest networks of broad-band sensors in Europe. Based on data from 1983 January 1 to 2008 March 31, we found strong spatio-temporal variability of network completeness: the highest value of MP in Switzerland at present is 2.5 in the far southwest, close to the national boundary, whereas MP is lower than 1.6 in high-seismicity areas. Thus, events of magnitude 2.5 can be detected in all of Switzerland. We evaluated the temporal evolution of MP for the last 20 yr, showing the successful improvement of the SSN. We next introduced the calculation of uncertainties to the probabilistic method using a bootstrap approach. The results show that the uncertainties in completeness magnitudes are generally less than 0.1 magnitude units, implying that the method generates stable estimates of completeness magnitudes. We explored the possible use of PMC: (1) as a tool to estimate the number of missing earthquakes in moderate-seismicity regions and (2) as a network planning tool with simulation computations of installations of one or more virtual stations to assess the completeness and identify appropriate locations for new station installations. We compared our results with an existing study of the completeness based on detecting the point of deviation from a power law in the earthquake-size distribution. In general, the new approach provides higher estimates of the completeness magnitude than the traditional one. We associate this observation with the difference in the sensitivity of the two approaches in periods where the event detectability of the seismic networks is low. Our results allow us to move towards a full description of completeness as a function of space and time, which can be used for hazard-model development and forecast-model testing, showing an illustrative example of the applicability of the PMC method to regions with low to moderate seismicit

Observation of Multi-Tev Gamma Rays from the Crab Nebula Using the Tibet Air Shower Array

The Tibet experiment, operating at Yangbajing (4,300 m above sea level), is the lowest energy air shower array and the new high density array constructed in 1996 has sensitivity to $\gamma$-ray air showers at energies as low as 3 TeV. With this new array, the Crab Nebula was observed in multi-TeV $\gamma$-rays and a signal was detected at the 5.5 $\sigma$ level. We also obtained the energy spectrum of $\gamma$-rays in the energy region above 3 TeV which partially overlaps those observed with imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. This is the first observation of $\gamma$-ray signals from point sources with a conventional air shower array using scintillation detectors.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Anomalous decrease in relatively large shocks and increase in the p and b values preceding the April 16, 2016, M7.3 earthquake in Kumamoto, Japan

Additional file 1. Appendix 1, figures A1–A4, and additional references

Observation of PeV Gamma Rays from the Monogem Ring with the Tibet Air Shower Array

We searched for steady PeV gamma-ray emission from the Monogem ring region with the Tibet air shower array from 1997 February to 2004 October. No evidence for statistically significant gamma-ray signals was found in a region 111\degr $\leq$ R.A. $<$ 114\degr, 12\fdg5 $\leq$ decl. $<$ 15\fdg5 in the Monogem ring where the MAKET-ANI experiment recently claimed a positive detection of PeV high-energy cosmic radiation, although our flux sensitivity is approximately 10 times better than MAKET-ANI's. We set the most stringent integral flux upper limit at a 99% confidence level of 4.0 $\times$ 10$^{-12}$ cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ sr$^{-1}$ above 1 PeV on diffuse gamma rays extended in the 3$^{\circ}$ $\times$ 3$^{\circ}$ region.Comment: 13 pages 3figures, 1 tabl

Observation of Multi-Tev Diffuse Gamma Rays from the Galactic Plane with the Tibet Air Shower Array

Data from the Tibet-III air shower array (with energies around 3 TeV) and from the Tibet-II array (with energies around 10 TeV) have been searched for diffuse gamma rays from the Galactic plane. These arrays have an angular resolution of about 0.9 degrees. The sky regions searched are the inner Galaxy, 20 degrees <= l <= 55 degrees, and outer Galaxy, 140 degrees <= l <= 225 degrees, and |b| <= 2 degrees or <= 5 degrees. No significant Galactic plane gamma-ray excess was observed. The 99% confidence level upper limits for gamma-ray intensity obtained are (for |b| <= 2 degrees) 1.1 times 10^{-15} cm^{-2}s^{-1}sr^{-1}MeV^{-1} at 3 TeV and 4.1 times 10^{-17} cm^{-2}s^{-1}sr^{-1}MeV^{-1} at 10 TeV for the inner Galaxy, and 3.6 times 10^{-16} cm^{-2}s^{-1}sr^{-1}MeV^{-1} at 3 TeV and 1.3 times 10^{-17} cm^{-2}s^{-1}sr^{-1}MeV^{-1} at 10 TeV for the outer Galaxy, assuming a differential spectral index of 2.4. The upper limits are significant in the multi-TeV region when compared to those from Cherenkov telescopes in the lower energy region and other air shower arrays in the higher energy region; however, the results are not sufficient to rule out the inverse Compton model with a source electron spectral index of 2.0.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figures, Accepted for publication in Ap