THE SIGNIFICANCE OF INTERCEPTIONS OF FRESH PRODUCE FROM LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE UNITED STATES

This paper develops a method to examine data on fresh produce imports from Latin America and the Caribbean into the United States from 1993-1999 to determine: 1) if there are significant differences in frequency of interceptions for a specific product for the region or a specific country within the region, and 2) whether significant changes in trade flows for specific products have occurred between points of origin and ports of entry. The results show that there are indeed differences between countries with respect to interception frequency, however current data on the fumigation frequency for a commodity/country or commodity/port of entry is not sufficient to determine the causes that underlie differences in frequencies between countries.International Relations/Trade,

Association of Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events in Mobility-Limited Older Adults: The LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) Study.

BACKGROUND:Data are sparse regarding the value of physical activity (PA) surveillance among older adults-particularly among those with mobility limitations. The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between objectively measured daily PA and the incidence of cardiovascular events among older adults in the LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) study. METHODS AND RESULTS:Cardiovascular events were adjudicated based on medical records review, and cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for in the analysis. Home-based activity data were collected by hip-worn accelerometers at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months postrandomization to either a physical activity or health education intervention. LIFE study participants (n=1590; age 78.9±5.2 [SD] years; 67.2% women) at baseline had an 11% lower incidence of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event per 500 steps taken per day based on activity data (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.96; P=0.001). At baseline, every 30 minutes spent performing activities ≥500 counts per minute (hazard ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.65-0.89 [P=0.001]) were also associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events. Throughout follow-up (6, 12, and 24 months), both the number of steps per day (per 500 steps; hazard ratio, 0.90, confidence interval, 0.85-0.96 [P=0.001]) and duration of activity ≥500 counts per minute (per 30 minutes; hazard ratio, 0.76; confidence interval, 0.63-0.90 [P=0.002]) were significantly associated with lower cardiovascular event rates. CONCLUSIONS:Objective measurements of physical activity via accelerometry were associated with cardiovascular events among older adults with limited mobility (summary score >10 on the Short Physical Performance Battery) both using baseline and longitudinal data. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01072500

MODEL VALIDATION AND THE NET TRADE MODEL

The article discusses processes of validating structural forecasting models It summarizes methods of evaluating the goodness of fit of model Simulations over historical periods and methods of comparing the forecasting behavior of structural models with that of Simple time series models The net trade model provides a case study for these two validation processe

The Effect of an Echange Rate Change on Commodity Trade

A theoretical model is developed and used to evaluate the effects of either a devaluation or revaluation upon production, consumption, trade and price of a particular commodity in both exporting and importing countries. This model is used to analyze the theoretical effects of a devaluation on the agricultural sector of an economy. One concludes that a devaluation will have only a small impact on agricultural trade. What effect there is will be primarily a price effect rather than a quantity effect. Therefore a country cannot necessarily look to its agricultural sector for the major contribution to improving the balance of payments position via a devaluation

The Agricultural Component in Macroeconomic Models

Many of the operational macroeconomic models examined either ignore or treat the agricultural sector as exogenous When the sector is treated as endogenous, it is most likely structurally misspecified and/or too small to provide much information about agriculture Given the increased awareness about economic interdependence among sectors, the importance of agriculture, the growing demand for more detailed forecasts, and the growing elaboration of econometric models, both agricultural economists and macroeconomists should direct more attention to making agricultural sectors of macroeconomic models endogenou

EFFECTS OF AN EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL TRADE

A theoretical model is reviewed and used to evaluate the effects of currency devaluation or revaluation on production, consumption, trade, and price in both exporting and importing countries. The model is applied to the effects of devaluation on the agricultural sector, when supply and demand are inelastic. Based on the analysis, devaluation will have only a small impact on agricultural trade. What effect there is will be primarily on price rather than quantity

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF INTERCEPTIONS OF FRESH PRODUCE FROM LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE UNITED STATES

This paper develops a method to examine data on fresh produce imports from Latin America and the Caribbean into the United States from 1993-1999 to determine: 1) if there are significant differences in frequency of interceptions for a specific product for the region or a specific country within the region, and 2) whether significant changes in trade flows for specific products have occurred between points of origin and ports of entry. The results show that there are indeed differences between countries with respect to interception frequency, however current data on the fumigation frequency for a commodity/country or commodity/port of entry is not sufficient to determine the causes that underlie differences in frequencies between countries