Product quality risk perceptions and decisions: contaminated pet food and lead-painted toys.

In the context of the recent recalls of contaminated pet food and lead-painted toys in the United States, we examine patterns of risk perceptions and decisions when facing consumer product-caused quality risks. Two approaches were used to explore risk perceptions of the product recalls. In the first approach, we elicited judged probabilities and found that people appear to have greatly overestimated the actual risks for both product scenarios. In the second approach, we applied the psychometric paradigm to examine risk perception dimensions concerning these two specific products through factor analysis. There was a similar risk perception pattern for both products: they are seen as unknown risks and are relatively not dread risks. This pattern was also similar to what prior research found for lead paint. Further, we studied people's potential actions to deal with the recalls of these two products. Several factors were found to be significant predictors of respondents' cautious actions for both product scenarios. Policy considerations regarding product quality risks are discussed. For example, risk communicators could reframe information messages to prompt people to consider total risks packed together from different causes, even when the risk message has been initiated due to a specific recall event

A Conceptual Framework for Multiple Stakeholder Educational Decision Making

The purpose of this paper is to construct a conceptual framework of educational decision making that accounts for critical factors in decision processes. Elements of the framework include multiple stakeholders’ objectives and influence, varying degrees of collaboration, the concept of coupling between decision makers and stakeholders, and feedback as decisions evolve. The theoretical and conceptual contributions of this paper help to fill in an important gap in the decision making and leadership literature by explaining the dynamics of multiple actors involved in a series of decisions over time. This conceptual framework is developed by presenting areas of inquiry that are not addressed in the current literature and responding to them in a step-wise fashion. A brief school district case is used for illustration. The paper concludes with research and practice applications of the conceptual framework

Examining predictive models among discounting models

Both descriptive and normative arguments claim that the discount rate to be applied to public projects should be elicited from individual intertemporal preferences. We present a methodology to analyze data from experimental surveys on intertemporal preferences. Focusing on the exponential and the hyperbolic discounting models, we model the experimental data published by Thaler (1981) by means of different specifications. Standard measures of goodness of prediction are then applied to fitted data to select among alternative specifications. We first present our approach by applying it to simulated data. We then present a procedure for statistical estimation of the sample discount rate, testing four specifications. The estimation procedure we adopt can be easily extended to other functional forms, allowing for non-linearity of the valuation function, inclusion of socio-economic individual characteristics as regressors, and different specifications for the discounting model

Decision Analysis with Geographically Varying Outcomes: Preference Models and Illustrative Applications

DRMI Working Paper SeriesThe series is intended to convey the preliminary results of [DRMI] ongoing research. The research described in these papers is preliminary and has not completed the usual review process for Institute publications. We welcome feedback from readers and encourage you to convey your comments and criticisms directly to the authors

Stellar over-densities in the halo: the extent of the Virgo over-density

We map the three dimensional extent of the Virgo Over-density by combining distance information from RR Lyrae variables and projected spatial information from SEKBO (Keller et al. 2008) and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR6 photometry. The Virgo Over-density is seen to comprise two filaments 14.5 x 3 degrees and 10 x 3 degrees and a circular structure 3 degrees in diameter. Together the three features span 38 degrees of right ascension and declinations of +2 to -15 degrees. RR Lyrae variables place the two filamentary features at heliocentric distances of 20 and 17 kpc respectively, with projected dimensions of 5 x 1 kpc and 3 x 1 kpc.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, MNRAS accepte

Mammography screening: views from women and primary care physicians in Crete

Background: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women and a leading cause of death from cancer in women in Europe. Although breast cancer incidence is on the rise worldwide, breast cancer mortality over the past 25 years has been stable or decreasing in some countries and a fall in breast cancer mortality rates in most European countries in the 1990s was reported by several studies, in contrast, in Greece have not reported these favourable trends. In Greece, the age-standardised incidence and mortality rate for breast cancer per 100.000 in 2006 was 81,8 and 21,7 and although it is lower than most other countries in Europe, the fall in breast cancer mortality that observed has not been as great as in other European countries. There is no national strategy for screening in this country. This study reports on the use of mammography among middleaged women in rural Crete and investigates barriers to mammography screening encountered by women and their primary care physicians. Methods: Design: Semi-structured individual interviews. Setting and participants: Thirty women between 45–65 years of age, with a mean age of 54,6 years, and standard deviation 6,8 from rural areas of Crete and 28 qualified primary care physicians, with a mean age of 44,7 years and standard deviation 7,0 serving this rural population. Main outcome measure: Qualitative thematic analysis. Results: Most women identified several reasons for not using mammography. These included poor knowledge of the benefits and indications for mammography screening, fear of pain during the procedure, fear of a serious diagnosis, embarrassment, stress while anticipating the results, cost and lack of physician recommendation. Physicians identified difficulties in scheduling an appointment as one reason women did not use mammography and both women and physicians identified distance from the screening site, transportation problems and the absence of symptoms as reasons for non-use. Conclusion: Women are inhibited from participating in mammography screening in rural Crete. The provision of more accessible screening services may improve this. However physician recommendation is important in overcoming women's inhibitions. Primary care physicians serving rural areas need to be aware of barriers preventing women from attending mammography screening and provide women with information and advice in a sensitive way so women can make informed decisions regarding breast caner screening

Extremely metal-poor stars from the cosmic dawn in the bulge of the Milky Way

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: L. M. Howes, et al, ‘Extremely metal-poor stars from the cosmic dawn in the bulge of the Milky Way’, Nature, Vol. 527, November 2015. This manuscript version is made available under the Nature Research’s Conditions of Use, http://www.nature.com/authors/policies/license.html#Self_archiving_policy. The final, published version is available online at DOI: http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature15747. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reservedThe first stars are predicted to have formed within 200 million years after the Big Bang, initiating the cosmic dawn. A true first star has not yet been discovered, although stars with tiny amounts of elements heavier than helium ('metals') have been found in the outer regions ('halo') of the Milky Way. The first stars and their immediate successors should, however, preferentially be found today in the central regions ('bulges') of galaxies, because they formed in the largest over-densities that grew gravitationally with time. The Milky Way bulge underwent a rapid chemical enrichment during the first 1-2 billion years, leading to a dearth of early, metal-poor stars. Here we report observations of extremely metal-poor stars in the Milky Way bulge, including one star with an iron abundance about 10,000 times lower than the solar value without noticeable carbon enhancement. We confirm that the most metal-poor bulge stars are on tight orbits around the Galactic Centre, rather than being halo stars passing through the bulge, as expected for stars formed at redshifts greater than 15. Their chemical compositions are in general similar to typical halo stars of the same metallicity although intriguing differences exist, including lower abundances of carbon.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Measurement of the cross-section and charge asymmetry of WW bosons produced in proton-proton collisions at s=8\sqrt{s}=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements of the $W^+ \rightarrow \mu^+\nu$ and $W^- \rightarrow \mu^-\nu$ cross-sections and the associated charge asymmetry as a function of the absolute pseudorapidity of the decay muon. The data were collected in proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC and correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 20.2~\mbox{fb^{-1}}. The precision of the cross-section measurements varies between 0.8% to 1.5% as a function of the pseudorapidity, excluding the 1.9% uncertainty on the integrated luminosity. The charge asymmetry is measured with an uncertainty between 0.002 and 0.003. The results are compared with predictions based on next-to-next-to-leading-order calculations with various parton distribution functions and have the sensitivity to discriminate between them.Comment: 38 pages in total, author list starting page 22, 5 figures, 4 tables, submitted to EPJC. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2017-13