Discounting of reward sequences: a test of competing formal models of hyperbolic discounting

Humans are known to discount future rewards hyperbolically in time. Nevertheless, a formal recursive model of hyperbolic discounting has been elusive until recently, with the introduction of the hyperbolically discounted temporal difference (HDTD) model. Prior to that, models of learning (especially reinforcement learning) have relied on exponential discounting, which generally provides poorer fits to behavioral data. Recently, it has been shown that hyperbolic discounting can also be approximated by a summed distribution of exponentially discounted values, instantiated in the μAgents model. The HDTD model and the μAgents model differ in one key respect, namely how they treat sequences of rewards. The μAgents model is a particular implementation of a Parallel discounting model, which values sequences based on the summed value of the individual rewards whereas the HDTD model contains a non-linear interaction. To discriminate among these models, we observed how subjects discounted a sequence of three rewards, and then we tested how well each candidate model fit the subject data. The results show that the Parallel model generally provides a better fit to the human data

Frontal cortex function as derived from hierarchical predictive coding

Abstract The frontal lobes are essential for human volition and goal-directed behavior, yet their function remains unclear. While various models have highlighted working memory, reinforcement learning, and cognitive control as key functions, a single framework for interpreting the range of effects observed in prefrontal cortex has yet to emerge. Here we show that a simple computational motif based on predictive coding can be stacked hierarchically to learn and perform arbitrarily complex goal-directed behavior. The resulting Hierarchical Error Representation (HER) model simulates a wide array of findings from fMRI, ERP, single-units, and neuropsychological studies of both lateral and medial prefrontal cortex. By reconceptualizing lateral prefrontal activity as anticipating prediction errors, the HER model provides a novel unifying account of prefrontal cortex function with broad implications for understanding the frontal cortex across multiple levels of description, from the level of single neurons to behavior

Nicotine and cotinine exposure from electronic cigarettes: a population approach

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are a recent technology that has gained rapid acceptance. Still, little is known about them in terms of safety and effectiveness. A basic question is how effectively they deliver nicotine; however, the literature is surprisingly unclear on this point. Here, a population pharmacokinetic model was developed for nicotine and its major metabolite cotinine with the aim to provide a reliable framework for the simulation of nicotine and cotinine concentrations over time, based solely on inhalation airflow recordings and individual covariates [i.e., weight and breath carbon monoxide (CO) levels]. METHODS: This study included ten adults self-identified as heavy smokers (at least one pack of cigarettes per day). Plasma nicotine and cotinine concentrations were measured at regular 10-min intervals for 90 min while human subjects inhaled nicotine vapor from a modified e-cigarette. Airflow measurements were recorded every 200 ms throughout the session. A population pharmacokinetic model for nicotine and cotinine was developed based on previously published pharmacokinetic parameters and the airflow recordings. All of the analyses were performed with the non-linear mixed-effect modeling software NONMEM(®) version 7.2. RESULTS: The results show that e-cigarettes deliver nicotine effectively, although the pharmacokinetic profiles are lower than those achieved with regular cigarettes. Our pharmacokinetic model effectively predicts plasma nicotine and cotinine concentrations from the inhalation volume, and initial breath CO. CONCLUSION: E-cigarettes are effective at delivering nicotine. This new pharmacokinetic model of e-cigarette usage might be used for pharmacodynamic analysis where the pharmacokinetic profiles are not available

The sloppy model universality class and the Vandermonde matrix

In a variety of contexts, physicists study complex, nonlinear models with many unknown or tunable parameters to explain experimental data. We explain why such systems so often are sloppy; the system behavior depends only on a few `stiff' combinations of the parameters and is unchanged as other `sloppy' parameter combinations vary by orders of magnitude. We contrast examples of sloppy models (from systems biology, variational quantum Monte Carlo, and common data fitting) with systems which are not sloppy (multidimensional linear regression, random matrix ensembles). We observe that the eigenvalue spectra for the sensitivity of sloppy models have a striking, characteristic form, with a density of logarithms of eigenvalues which is roughly constant over a large range. We suggest that the common features of sloppy models indicate that they may belong to a common universality class. In particular, we motivate focusing on a Vandermonde ensemble of multiparameter nonlinear models and show in one limit that they exhibit the universal features of sloppy models.Comment: New content adde

TrES-2: The First Transiting Planet in the Kepler Field

We announce the discovery of the second transiting hot Jupiter discovered by the Trans-atlantic Exoplanet Survey. The planet, which we dub TrES-2, orbits the nearby star GSC 03549-02811 every 2.47063 days. From high-resolution spectra, we determine that the star has T_eff = 5960 +/- 100 K and log(g) = 4.4 +/- 0.2, implying a spectral type of G0V and a mass of 1.08 +0.11/-0.05 M_sun. High-precision radial-velocity measurements confirm a sinusoidal variation with the period and phase predicted by the photometry, and rule out the presence of line-bisector variations that would indicate that the spectroscopic orbit is spurious. We estimate a planetary mass of 1.28 +0.09/-0.04 M_Jup. We model B, r, R, and I photometric timeseries of the 1.4%-deep transits and find a planetary radius of 1.24 +0.09/-0.06 R_Jup. This planet lies within the field of view of the NASA Kepler mission, ensuring that hundreds of upcoming transits will be monitored with exquisite precision and permitting a host of unprecedented investigations.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJL. 15 pages, 2 figure

The PyCBC search for gravitational waves from compact binary coalescence

We describe the PyCBC search for gravitational waves from compact-object binary coalescences in advanced gravitational-wave detector data. The search was used in the first Advanced LIGO observing run and unambiguously identified two black hole binary mergers, GW150914 and GW151226. At its core, the PyCBC search performs a matched-filter search for binary merger signals using a bank of gravitational-wave template waveforms. We provide a complete description of the search pipeline including the steps used to mitigate the effects of noise transients in the data, identify candidate events and measure their statistical significance. The analysis is able to measure false-alarm rates as low as one per million years, required for confident detection of signals. Using data from initial LIGO's sixth science run, we show that the new analysis reduces the background noise in the search, giving a 30% increase in sensitive volume for binary neutron star systems over previous searches.Comment: 29 pages, 7 figures, accepted by Classical and Quantum Gravit

A First Comparison of Kepler Planet Candidates in Single and Multiple Systems

In this letter we present an overview of the rich population of systems with multiple candidate transiting planets found in the first four months of Kepler data. The census of multiples includes 115 targets that show 2 candidate planets, 45 with 3, 8 with 4, and 1 each with 5 and 6, for a total of 170 systems with 408 candidates. When compared to the 827 systems with only one candidate, the multiples account for 17 percent of the total number of systems, and a third of all the planet candidates. We compare the characteristics of candidates found in multiples with those found in singles. False positives due to eclipsing binaries are much less common for the multiples, as expected. Singles and multiples are both dominated by planets smaller than Neptune; 69 +2/-3 percent for singles and 86 +2/-5 percent for multiples. This result, that systems with multiple transiting planets are less likely to include a transiting giant planet, suggests that close-in giant planets tend to disrupt the orbital inclinations of small planets in flat systems, or maybe even to prevent the formation of such systems in the first place.Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures, submitted to ApJ Letter

2006 SQ372: A Likely Long-Period Comet from the Inner Oort Cloud

We report the discovery of a minor planet (2006 SQ372) on an orbit with a perihelion of 24 AU and a semimajor axis of 796 AU. Dynamical simulations show that this is a transient orbit and is unstable on a timescale of 200 Myrs. Falling near the upper semimajor axis range of the scattered disk and the lower semimajor axis range of the Oort Cloud, previous membership in either class is possible. By modeling the production of similar orbits from the Oort Cloud as well as from the scattered disk, we find that the Oort Cloud produces 16 times as many objects on SQ372-like orbits as the scattered disk. Given this result, we believe this to be the most distant long-period comet ever discovered. Furthermore, our simulation results also indicate that 2000 OO67 has had a similar dynamical history. Unaffected by the "Jupiter-Saturn Barrier," these two objects are most likely long-period comets from the inner Oort Cloud

Qatar-2: A K dwarf orbited by a transiting hot Jupiter and a more massive companion in an outer orbit

We report the discovery and initial characterization of Qatar-2b, a hot Jupiter transiting a V = 13.3 mag K dwarf in a circular orbit with a short period, P_ b = 1.34 days. The mass and radius of Qatar-2b are M_p = 2.49 M_j and R_p = 1.14 R_j, respectively. Radial-velocity monitoring of Qatar-2 over a span of 153 days revealed the presence of a second companion in an outer orbit. The Systemic Console yielded plausible orbits for the outer companion, with periods on the order of a year and a companion mass of at least several M_j. Thus Qatar-2 joins the short but growing list of systems with a transiting hot Jupiter and an outer companion with a much longer period. This system architecture is in sharp contrast to that found by Kepler for multi-transiting systems, which are dominated by objects smaller than Neptune, usually with tightly spaced orbits that must be nearly coplanar