Critical Values for Cointegration Tests

This paper provides tables of critical values for some popular tests of cointegration and unit roots. Although these tables are necessarily based on computer simulations, they are much more accurate than those previously available. The results of the simulation experiments are summarized by means of response surface regressions in which critical values depend on the sample size. From these regressions, asymptotic critical values can be read off directly, and critical values for any finite sample size can easily be computed with a hand calculator. Added in 2010 version: A new appendix contains additional results that are more accurate and cover more cases than the ones in the original paper.unit root test, Dickey-Fuller test, Engle-Granger test, ADF test

Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics

There are many bootstrap methods that can be used for econometric analysis. In certain circumstances, such as regression models with independent and identically distributed error terms, appropriately chosen bootstrap methods generally work very well. However, there are many other cases, such as regression models with dependent errors, in which bootstrap methods do not always work well. This paper discusses a large number of bootstrap methods that can be useful in econometrics. Applications to hypothesis testing are emphasized, and simulation results are presented for a few illustrative cases.bootstrap, Monte Carlo test, wild bootstrap, sieve bootstrap, moving block bootstrap

Bootstrap Hypothesis Testing

This paper surveys bootstrap and Monte Carlo methods for testing hypotheses in econometrics. Several different ways of computing bootstrap P values are discussed, including the double bootstrap and the fast double bootstrap. It is emphasized that there are many different procedures for generating bootstrap samples for regression models and other types of model. As an illustration, a simulation experiment examines the performance of several methods of bootstrapping the supF test for structural change with an unknown break point.bootstrap test, supF test, wild bootstrap, pairs bootstrap, moving block bootstrap, residual bootstrap, bootstrap P value

Heteroskedasticity-robust tests for structural change

It is remarkably easy to test for structural change, of the type that the classic F or "Chow" test is designed to detect, in a manner that is robust to heteroskedasticity of possibly unknown form. This paper first discusses how to test for structural change in nonlinear regression models by using a variant of the Gauss-Newton regression. It then shows how to make these tests robust to heteroskedasticity of unknown form and discusses several related procedures for doing so. Finally, it presents the results of a number of Monte Carlo experiments designed to see how well the new tests perform in finite samples.Chow test, HCCME, heteroskedasticity, artificial regression, Gauss-Newton regression, GNR, structural break

Model Specification Tests Against Non-Nested Alternatives

Non-nested hypothesis tests provide a way to test the specification of an econometric model against the evidence provided by one or more non-nested alternatives. This paper surveys the recent literature on non-nested hypothesis testing in the context of regression and related models. Much of the purely statistical literature which has evolved from the fundamental work of Cox is discussed briefly or not at all. Instead, emphasis is placed on those techniques which are easy to employ in practice and are likely to be useful to applied workers.Cox test, nonnested hypotheses, J test, specification tests, nonnested hypothesis test

The Power of Bootstrap and Asymptotic Tests

We introduce the concept of the bootstrap discrepancy, which measures the difference in rejection probabilities between a bootstrap test based on a given test statistic and that of a (usually infeasible) test based on the true distribution of the statistic. We show that the bootstrap discrepancy is of the same order of magnitude under the null hypothesis and under non-null processes described by a Pitman drift. However, complications arise in the measurement of power. If the test statistic is not an exact pivot, critical values depend on which data-generating process (DGP) is used to determine the distribution under the null hypothesis. We propose as the proper choice the DGP which minimizes the bootstrap discrepancy. We also show that, under an asymptotic independence condition, the power of both bootstrap and asymptotic tests can be estimated cheaply by simulation. The theory of the paper and the proposed simulation method are illustrated by Monte Carlo experiments using the logit model.bootstrap test, bootstrap discrepancy, Pitman drift, drifting DGP, Monte Carlo, test power, power, asymptotic test

Regression-Based Methods for Using Control and Antithetic Variates in Monte Carlo Experiments

Methods based on linear regression provide a very easy way to use the information in control and antithetic variates to improve the efficiency with which certain features of the distributions of estimators and test statistics are estimated in Monte Carlo experiments. We propose a new technique that allows these methods to be used when the quantities of interest are quantiles. Ways to obtain approximately optimal control variates in many cases of interest are also proposed. These methods seem to work well in practice, and can greatly reduce the number of replications required to obtain a given level of accuracy.

Inflation and the Savings Rate

This paper examines two explanations of the observed positive relationship between inflation rates and saving rates in Canada and the United States. Several models are estimated using quarterly time series data from both countries, and the best of these are subjected to a variety of tests. One of the two explanations appears broadly consistent with the data. The observed relationship arises primarily because, in times of inflation, measured income and measured savings overstate the corresponding real and perceived quantities.inflation, savingsinflation, savings, income, wealth, mismeasurement

Some Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators with Improved Finite Sample Properties

We examine several modified versions of the heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator of Hinkley and White. On the basis of sampling experiments which compare the performance of quasi t statistics, we find that one estimator, based on the jackknife, performs better in small samples than the rest. We also examine finite-sample properties using modified critical values based on Edgeworth approximations, as proposed by Rothenberg. In addition, we compare the power of several tests for heteroskedasticity and find that it may be wise to employ the jackknife heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix even in the absence of detected heteroskedasticity.Jackknife, Heteroskedasticity, HCCME, Edgeworth approximations

Improving the Reliability of Bootstrap Tests with the Fast Double Bootstrap

We first propose two procedures for estimating the rejection probabilities of bootstrap tests in Monte Carlo experiments without actually computing a bootstrap test for each replication. These procedures are only about twice as expensive (per replication) as estimating rejection probabilities for asymptotic tests. We then propose a new procedure for computing bootstrap P values that will often be more accurate than ordinary ones. This "fast double bootstrap" is closely related to the double bootstrap, but it is far less computationally demanding. Simulation results for three different cases suggest that this procedure can be very useful in practice.bootstrap test, double bootstrap, Monte Carlo experiment, rejection frequency, fast double bootstrap, FDB