Study of tau- --> V P- nu(tau) in the framework of resonance chiral theory

In this paper we study two kinds of tau decays: (a) tau- --> (rho pi-,omega pi-, phi pi-, K*0 K-) nu(tau), which belong to Delta S=0 processes and (b) Delta S = 1 processes, like tau- --> (rho K-, omega K-, phi K-, \bar{K*0} pi-) nu(tau), in the framework of resonance chiral theory. We fit the tau- --> omega pi- nu(tau) spectral function and the invariant mass distribution of omega K in the process of tau- --> omega K- nu(tau) to get the values of unknown resonance couplings. Then we make a prediction for branching ratios of all channels.Comment: Published version; References added. 20 pages, 3 figures, 2 table

Stock market dispersion and unemployment

Stock market ; Unemployment

Does stock market volatility forecast returns?

Stock - Prices

Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns

This paper develops and estimates a heteroskedastic variant of Campbell’s (1993) ICAPM, in which risk factors include a stock market return and variables forecasting stock market returns or variance. Our main innovation is the use of a new set of predictive variables, which not only have superior forecasting abilities for stock returns and variance, but also are theoretically motivated. In contrast with the early authors, we find that Campbell’s ICAPM performs significantly better than the CAPM. That is, the additional factors account for a substantial portion of the two CAPM-related anomalies, namely, the value premium and the momentum profit.Stock market ; Capital assets pricing model

Why are stock market returns correlated with future economic activities?

Stock price, because it is a forward-looking variable, forecasts economic activities. An unexpected increase in stock price reflects that (i) future dividend growth is higher and/or (ii) future discount rates are lower than previously anticipated; therefore, the increase predicts higher output and investment. As well, other studies argue for an important relation between the expected stock market return and investment. In this paper, Hui Guo analyzes the relative importance of these mechanisms by using Campbell and Shiller’s (1988) method to decompose stock market return into three parts: expected return, a shock to the expected future return, and a shock to the expected future dividend growth. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the author finds that dividend shocks are a rather weak predictor for future economic activities. Moreover, the expected return and shocks to the expected future return display different predictive patterns. The results shown here, collectively, explain why the forecasting power of stock market return is rather limited.Stock market

Foreign exchange rates are predictable!

Foreign exchange rates

Higher risk does bring higher returns in stock markets worldwide

Stock market ; Risk

The less volatile U.S. economy

Business cycles

Volatile firms, stable economy

Stocks ; Rate of return