Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on the Aboveground Carbon Sequestration Rate of a Temperate Forest in Northeastern China

<div><p>The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species.</p></div

The spatial distribution of forest total biomass under different climates.

<p>CC: Current climate, B1S: B1 scenario, A1B: A1B scenario, A2: A2 scenario. Unit: t ha⁻¹.</p

Results of multiple comparisons of the influences on species aboveground carbon sequestration rate.

<p>A: Korean pine in 2060–2100, B: Korean pine in 2160–2200, C: Spruce in 21260–2200, D: Khingan fir in 2160–2200, E: Larch in 2160–2200, F: Amur cork in 2060–2100, G: Amur cork in 2160–2200, H: Mongolia oak in 2160–2200, I: Black birch in 2060–2100, and J: Black birch in 2160–2200.</p

Species vital attributes in the Lesser Khingan mountains area, Northeastern China.

<p>LONG: longevity (years); MTR: age of maturity (years); ST: shade tolerance (1–5); FT: fire tolerance (1–5); ESD: effective seeding distance (m); MSD: maximum seeding distance (m); VP: vegetative production probability (0–1); MVP: minimum age of vegetative reproduction (years); MD: maximum diameter at breast height (cm); CCC: carbon content coefficient (0–1).</p

The variation values of average annual precipitation and temperature in 2100 modeled by CGCM3.

<p>ΔP:Increment of precipitation in 2100 modeled by CGCM3; ΔT: Increment of temperature in 2100 modeled by CGCM3.</p

ANOVA results of differences among various climate scenarios effect on forest aboveground carbon sequestration rate.

<p>df = 4; Bold P values mean the effect of treatment is significant (α = 0.05).</p

Total forest carbon sequestrations and its rate under various climate scenarios in simulation time.

<p>A: Forest total ACSR of different future climates. B: Forest aboveground carbon storage of different future climates. The black line means the average aboveground carbon storage of all possible future climates, and the grey lines indicate the forecasting interval of aboveground carbon storage with the confidence level of 95%.</p

Results of multiple comparisons of the influences on communities’ aboveground carbon sequestration rate.

<p>A: Mixed Korean pine hardwood forests in 2060–2100, B: Mixed Korean pine hardwood forests in 2110–2150, and C: Spruce-fir forests in 2160–2200.</p

Forest aboveground carbon sequestration rates of different forest communities.

<p>A: Mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, B: Spruce-fir forests, C: Mixed larch hardwood forests, and D: Aspen-white birch forests.</p

Location of the study area and the distribution of the forest communities.

<p>A: Heilongjiang Province in Northeast China; B: study area in Heilongjiang Province; C: The distribution of forest communities in Lesser Khingan Mountains. NF: no forest zone, BKF: Broad-leaved Korean pine forest, LF: Larch conifer forest, SFKF: Spruce-fir Korean pine forest, PKF: Pinus sylvestris-Korean pine conifer forest, SFBF: Spruce-fir broad-leaved forest, PPF: Planted pinus sylvestris forest, AWF: Aspen-white birch forest, WSF: White birch softwood forest, ASF: Aspen softwood forest, OSF: Oak softwood forest, MBF: Mixed broad-leaved forest.</p