11 research outputs found

    The Vicious Cycle of the Foreign Military Debt

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    This paper aims at estimating first the effects of defense spending on the main determinants of growth, and second the extent to and the channels through which the military debt of Greece influences the overall debt burden of the country, and consequently the critical determinants of economic growth and development. Increased imports of sophisticated weapons and military equipment can be financed at the cost of investment (guns v. ploughshares), or/and at the cost of human capital formation (guns v. butter and chalk), or at the cost of increasing the foreign debt of the country. It is this last case which is investigated in this paper. Our empirical results indicate that whatever the necessity and the benefits of the security aspect of defense, its economic costs are quite substantial. The military as a claimant of resources has a negative and non trivial effect on physical capital accumulation, and human capital formation. Moreover, financing increased military imports through borrowing from abroad has a negative and significant effect on the determinants of growth and development

    The vicious cycle of the foreign military debt

    Get PDF
    This paper aims at estimating first the effects of defense spending on the main determinants of growth, and second the extent to and the channels through which the military debt of Greece influences the overall debt burden of the country, and consequently the critical determinants of economic growth and development. Increased imports of sophisticated weapons and military equipment can be financed at the cost of investment (guns v. ploughshares), or/and at the cost of human capital formation (guns v. butter and chalk), or at the cost of increasing the foreign debt of the country. It is this last case which is investigated in this paper. Our empirical results indicate that whatever the necessity and the benefits of the security aspect of defense, its economic costs are quite substantial. The military as a claimant of resources has a negative and non trivial effect on physical capital accumulation, and human capital formation. Moreover, financing increased military imports through borrowing from abroad has a negative and significant effect on the determinants of growth and development.peer-reviewe

    The vicious cycle of the foreign military debt

    No full text
    This paper aims at estimating first the effects of defense spending on the main determinants of growth, and second the extent to and the channels through which the military debt of Greece influences the overall debt burden of the country, and consequently the critical determinants of economic growth and development. Increased imports of sophisticated weapons and military equipment can be financed at the cost of investment (guns v. ploughshares), or/and at the cost of human capital formation (guns v. butter and chalk), or at the cost of increasing the foreign debt of the country. It is this last case which is investigated in this paper. Our empirical results indicate that whatever the necessity and the benefits of the security aspect of defense, its economic costs are quite substantial. The military as a claimant of resources has a negative and non trivial effect on physical capital accumulation, and human capital formation. Moreover, financing increased military imports through borrowing from abroad has a negative and significant effect on the determinants of growth and development.peer-reviewe

    The Cyprus puzzle and the Greek - Turkish arms race: Forecasting developments using genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps

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    The scope of this paper is to forecast the extent to which a settlement of the Cyprus issue may be possible given the decisions taken during the Copenhagen EU summit. It aims, in addition, at investigating the possibilities of improvement in Greek-Turkish relations which may lead, in turn, to reducing the arms race between the two countries. The paper uses a Genetically Evolved Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive Map algorithm to consider a number of scenarios examining the possible reactions of all sides involved in the Cyprus issue, namely Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, the Turkish-Cypriot community and the international environment. All simulation exercises suggest that the Greek and the Cypriot side should not necessarily rely on the decisions taken during the Copenhagen summit conference. The forecasts point out, in addition, that the optimism of the Greek government concerning the outlook of its relations with Turkey, and a subsequent reduction of the arms race against it, is far from being justified.Arms Race, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Genetic Algorithms, Hybrid Modelling,

    The cyprus puzzle and the Greek - Turkish arms race: Forecasting developments using genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps

    No full text
    The scope of this paper is to forecast the extent to which a settlement of the Cyprus issue may be possible given the decisions taken during the Copenhagen EU summit. It aims, in addition, at investigating the possibilities of improvement in Greek-Turkish relations which may lead, in turn, to reducing the arms race between the two countries. The paper uses a Genetically Evolved Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive Map algorithm to consider a number of scenarios examining the possible reactions of all sides involved in the Cyprus issue, namely Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, the Turkish-Cypriot community and the international environment. All simulation exercises suggest that the Greek and the Cypriot side should not necessarily rely on the decisions taken during the Copenhagen summit conference. The forecasts point out, in addition, that the optimism of the Greek government concerning the outlook of its relations with Turkey, and a subsequent reduction of the arms race against it, is far from being justified

    In search of a warning strategy against exchange-rate attacks: Forecasting tactics using artificial neural networks

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    “Heart attacks and devaluations are not predictable and, certainly, are never preannounced”. (The usual remark made by government spokesmen shortly after a domestic currency devaluation has taken place.

    An alliance between Cyprus and Greece: assessing its partners' relative security contribution

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    The issue that this paper tackles is the assessment of the relative security benefits that Cyprus and Greece derive in the context of their cooperation on defence matters. This form of cooperation, known as the 'Integrated Defence Space Doctrine', aims at defending their interests in the Aegean Sea and the broader East Mediterranean theatre. The paper relies heavily on earlier research on this topic, which deals with the Greek-Cypriot alliance facing an arms race against Turkey, and uses a coefficient especially designed to assess the optimal levels of security and the associated defence expenditure of the two allies. A comparison of the relative security coefficient values for the two allies suggests that the security benefit that Greece derives thanks to its alliance with Cyprus exceeds the corresponding Cypriot benefit by far. Given the importance assigned to human resources by this index, in conjunction with the demographic problems of Greece, this conclusion justifies the recent Greek defence policy revision, emphasizing quality, capital equipment and flexibility of forces. This revision aims at satisfying the security requirements of the alliance and the increasing demands of an arms race against Turkey.Optimal control, Defence expenditure, Arms race, Relative military security, JEL codes: C61, H56,

    Optimal versus required defence expenditure: The case of the Greek-Turkish arms race

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    The aim of this paper is to indicate the extent to which the arms race against Turkey, in which Greece and Cyprus have been entangled, imposes a defence expenditure burden that is tough for the two allies to bear. To do so we have resorted to evaluating the optimal military expenditure for the two countries, allied in the context of the Integrated Defence Doctrine, which is compatible with the constraints imposed by the resources of their economies. All experiments and scenarios examined lead to the conclusion that the current defence burden of the two allies seems to be driving their economies beyond capacity limits. The fact remains, however, that under the circumstances, a one-sided disarmament policy like the one currently followed by Greece, is a risky choice given that the long-term armament programmes pursued by Turkey, whose role in this arms race has been proven as leading, leave very small room to the Greek and Cypriot sides to reduce their own defence expenditure.Optimal Control, Defence Expenditure, Arms Race, Relative Military Security,
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