Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia

Against the background of the rapid inter- and intraregional integration of East Asia, we examine the extent and nature of synchronisation of business cycles in the region. We estimate various specifications of a dynamic common factor model for output growth of ten East Asian countries. A significant common factor is shared by all Asian countries considered, except China and Japan. The degree of synchronisation has fluctuated over time, with an upward trend particularly evident for the newly industrialised countries. Synchronisation appears to mainly reflect strong export synchronisation, rather than common consumption or investment dynamics. Cross-country spill-over effects explain only a small part of the comovement in the region. More importantly, a number of exogenous factors, such as the price of oil and the JPY-USD exchange rate, play an important role in synchronising activity. In addition, economic linkages with Europe and North America may also have contributed to the observed synchronisation. JEL Classification: E30, F00business cycles synchronisation, dynamic factor model, East Asia

Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia

Against the background of the rapid inter- and intraregional integration of East Asia, we examine the extent and nature of synchronisation of business cycles in the region. We estimate various specifications of a dynamic common factor model for output growth of ten East Asian countries. A significant common factor is shared by all Asian countries considered, except China and Japan. The degree of synchronisation has fluctuated over time, with an upward trend particularly evident for the newly industrialised countries. Synchronisation appears to mainly reflect strong export synchronisation, rather than common consumption or investment dynamics. Cross-country spill-over effects explain only a small part of the comovement in the region. More importantly, a number of exogenous factors, such as the price of oil and the JPY-USD exchange rate, play an important role in synchronising activity. In addition, economic linkages with Europe and North America may also have contributed to the observed synchronisation

Understanding the impact of the external dimension on the euro area - trade, capital flows and other international macroeconomic linkages

Overall, the paper underlines the difficulties in spelling out the transmission and the final effects of external shocks on the euro area, and highlights the complexity of the various direct and indirect mechanisms. We describe the main channels by which potential spillovers from external economic shocks may affect the euro area. Although the evidence is unclear on the extent to which the synchronisation of international cycles may have changed, the conclusion of the paper is that the “external dimension” of the euro area has a complex impact on economic developments in the euro area, while the relative importance of the various transmission channels may have changed rather substantially over time. Accordingly, this calls for continuous monitoring and further study of the evidence available. Finally, an efficient reaction to external shocks requires a flexible economy which allows an appropriate and rapid response to external shocks. Therefore, the continuation of structural reforms in the labour and product markets in the euro area countries is essential, and will encourage a better allocation and utilisation of capital and human resources, while enhancing the euro area’s growth potential

Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?

This paper studies the informational content of the slope of the yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro area. In particu-lar, the historical predictive power of ten yield spreads, for di®erent segments of the yield curve, is tested using a probit model. The yield spread between the ten-year government bond rate and the three-month interbank rate outperforms all the other spreads in predicting recessions in the euro area. The result is con¯rmed when the au-toregressive series of the state of the economy is added in the same model. The forecast accuracy of the spread between 10-year and 3-month interest rates is explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain information which goes beyond the information already available in the history of output, providing further evidence of the potential usefulness of this indicator for mon-etary policy purposes. JEL Classification: E44, E52, C53forecasting, probit model, recessions, yield curve

Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?

This paper studies the informational content of the slope of the yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro area. In particu-lar, the historical predictive power of ten yield spreads, for di®erent segments of the yield curve, is tested using a probit model. The yield spread between the ten-year government bond rate and the three-month interbank rate outperforms all the other spreads in predicting recessions in the euro area. The result is con¯rmed when the au-toregressive series of the state of the economy is added in the same model. The forecast accuracy of the spread between 10-year and 3-month interest rates is explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain information which goes beyond the information already available in the history of output, providing further evidence of the potential usefulness of this indicator for mon-etary policy purposes

Measuring Bond Mutual Fund Performance with Portfolio Characteristics

Thesis advisor: Pierluigi BalduzziEmploying a novel data set of portfolio weights from 1997 to 2006, the performance of taxable bond mutual funds is studied. The timing ability of fund managers is examined considering different asset allocation choices such as asset class, credit quality allocation, and portfolio maturity decisions. I show that active managers engage in strategies of rotating their portfolios across fixed-income sectors and bond characteristics. Some bond funds exhibit successful timing ability by adopting these strategies. Comparing fund returns plus expenses and transaction costs with the returns of a portfolio that is invested in the previously disclosed holdings, I document that active managers exhibit some ability to select securities that deliver better returns than the securities in the indices. In particular, on average, active managers generate gross returns of 1% per annum over the benchmark portfolio constructed using past holdings.Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2009.Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management.Discipline: Finance

Eeg frontal asymmetry related to pleasantness of olfactory stimuli in young subjects

It is widely known, in neuroscientific literature, that the brain prefrontal cortex activity asymmetry is closely linked with the pleasantness emotion experienced by the subject during a sensorial stimulation. Thus, from the electroencephalographic (EEG) signal it is possible to estimate the approach/withdrawal index, and this index has been largely investigated and validated in scientific literature, regarding visual and acoustic stimuli. In this work, we present an innovative study aimed to prove, in a systematic way, that such brain AW index is actually correlated with the “pleasant” or “no-pleasant” perception also of olfactory stimuli, conveniently produced by standardised methods in the sensory specific scientific literature. In particular, we recorded the electroencephalographic (EEG) signal from a group, gender balanced, of 24 healthy and no-smokers subjects during the perception of ten different smells, presented by means of the “Screening test-odour identification” set (Sniffin’ sticks, Burghart). The cerebral AW indexes of all the subjects, for each odorous stimulus, were compared with the appreciation numeric score assessed by the subject during the experiment, by performing a statistical correlation test. Findings show that it is possible to evaluate the pleasantness or no-pleasantness of odorous substances by means of the analysis of EEG signals collected during the presentation of such substances, making way for new applications of such measure kind in experimental environments more and more ecological, as the typical ones of the marketing research areas