194 research outputs found
Calculating effective gun policies
Following recent shootings in the USA, a debate has erupted, one side
favoring stricter gun control, the other promoting protection through more
weapons. We provide a scientific foundation to inform this debate, based on
mathematical, epidemiological models that quantify the dependence of
firearm-related death rates of people on gun policies. We assume a shooter
attacking a single individual or a crowd. Two strategies can minimize deaths in
the model, depending on parameters: either a ban of private firearms
possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. In
particular, the outcome depends on the fraction of offenders that illegally
possess a gun, on the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and on
the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry
it with them when attacked, parameters that can be estimated from statistical
data. With the measured parameters, the model suggests that if the gun law is
enforced at a level similar to that in the United Kingdom, gun-related deaths
are minimized if private possession of firearms is banned. If such a policy is
not practical or possible due to constitutional or cultural constraints, the
model and parameter estimation indicate that a partial reduction in firearm
availability can lead to a reduction in gun-induced death rates, even if they
are not minimized. Most importantly, our analysis identifies the crucial
parameters that determine which policy reduces the death rates, providing
guidance for future statistical studies that will be necessary for more refined
quantitative predictions
Shape-specific characterization of colorectal adenoma growth and transition to cancer with stochastic cell-based models
Colorectal adenoma are precursor lesions on the pathway to cancer. Their removal in screening colonoscopies has markedly reduced rates of cancer incidence and death. Generic models of adenoma growth and transition to cancer can guide the implementation of screening strategies. But adenoma shape has rarely featured as a relevant risk factor. Against this backdrop we aim to demonstrate that shape influences growth dynamics and cancer risk. Stochastic cell-based models are applied to a data set of 197,347 Bavarian outpatients who had colonoscopies from 2006-2009, 50,649 patients were reported with adenoma and 296 patients had cancer. For multi-stage clonal expansion (MSCE) models with up to three initiating stages parameters were estimated by fits to data sets of all shapes combined, and of sessile (70% of all adenoma), peduncular (17%) and flat (13%) adenoma separately for both sexes. Pertinent features of adenoma growth present themselves in contrast to previous assumptions. Stem cells with initial molecular changes residing in early adenoma predominantly multiply within two-dimensional structures such as crypts. For these cells mutation and division rates decrease with age. The absolute number of initiated cells in an adenoma of size 1 cm is small around 10(3), related to all bulk cells they constitute a share of about 10(−5). The notion of very few proliferating stem cells with age-decreasing division rates is supported by cell marker experiments. The probability for adenoma transiting to cancer increases with squared linear size and shows a shape dependence. Compared to peduncular and flat adenoma, it is twice as high for sessile adenoma of the same size. We present a simple mathematical expression for the hazard ratio of interval cancers which provides a mechanistic understanding of this important quality indicator. We conclude that adenoma shape deserves closer consideration in screening strategies and as risk factor for transition to cancer
Differences in reactivation of tuberculosis induced from anti-tnf treatments are based on bioavailability in granulomatous tissue
The immune response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection is complex. Experimental evidence has revealed that tumor necrosis factor (TNF) plays a major role in host defense against Mtb in both active and latent phases of infection. TNF-neutralizing drugs used to treat inflammatory disorders have been reported to increase the risk of tuberculosis (TB), in accordance with animal studies. The present study takes a computational approach toward characterizing the role of TNF in protection against the tubercle bacillus in both active and latent infection. We extend our previous mathematical models to investigate the roles and production of soluble (sTNF) and transmembrane TNF (tmTNF). We analyze effects of anti-TNF therapy in virtual clinical trials (VCTs) by simulating two of the most commonly used therapies, anti-TNF antibody and TNF receptor fusion, predicting mechanisms that explain observed differences in TB reactivation rates. The major findings from this study are that bioavailability of TNF following anti-TNF therapy is the primary factor for causing reactivation of latent infection and that sTNF-even at very low levels-is essential for control of infection. Using a mathematical model, it is possible to distinguish mechanisms of action of the anti-TNF treatments and gain insights into the role of TNF in TB control and pathology. Our study suggests that a TNF-modulating agent could be developed that could balance the requirement for reduction of inflammation with the necessity to maintain resistance to infection and microbial diseases. Alternatively, the dose and timing of anti-TNF therapy could be modified. Anti-TNF therapy will likely lead to numerous incidents of primary TB if used in areas where exposure is likely. © 2007 Marino et al
Immune responses and viral phenotype: do replication rate and cytopathogenicity influence viral load
We use mathematical models to investigate the relationship between viral characteristics and virus load under the following immune responses: (a) CTL-mediated lysis, (b) CTLmediated inhibition of virus entry into target cells, (c) CTL-mediated inhibition of virion production and (d) antibody responses. We find that the rate of virus entry into target cells may generally only have a weak influence on virus load. The rate of virion production by infected cells only has a weak effect on the equilibrium number of infected cells while strongly influencing the number of free virus particles. On the other hand, viral cytopathogenicity may be a major determinant of virus load under certain types of immune responses. If there is no immune response, or if inunune mediators inhibit infection of target cells, non-cytopathic viruses may attain significantly higher abundances than cytopathic ones. On the other hand, immune mediators acting on infected cells control both types of viruses with similar efficiencies. These results are used to interpret data on perforin-knockout experiments in LCMV infection and provide the basis for understanding the suppression and rise of non-syncytium (NSI) and syncytium inducing (SI) HIV phenotypes during the disease process
Complex Spatial Dynamics of Oncolytic Viruses In Vitro: Mathematical and Experimental Approaches
Oncolytic viruses replicate selectively in tumor cells and can serve as targeted treatment agents. While promising results have been observed in clinical trials, consistent success of therapy remains elusive. The dynamics of virus spread through tumor cell populations has been studied both experimentally and computationally. However, a basic understanding of the principles underlying virus spread in spatially structured target cell populations has yet to be obtained. This paper studies such dynamics, using a newly constructed recombinant adenovirus type-5 (Ad5) that expresses enhanced jellyfish green fluorescent protein (EGFP), AdEGFPuci, and grows on human 293 embryonic kidney epithelial cells, allowing us to track cell numbers and spatial patterns over time. The cells are arranged in a two-dimensional setting and allow virus spread to occur only to target cells within the local neighborhood. Despite the simplicity of the setup, complex dynamics are observed. Experiments gave rise to three spatial patterns that we call “hollow ring structure”, “filled ring structure”, and “disperse pattern”. An agent-based, stochastic computational model is used to simulate and interpret the experiments. The model can reproduce the experimentally observed patterns, and identifies key parameters that determine which pattern of virus growth arises. The model is further used to study the long-term outcome of the dynamics for the different growth patterns, and to investigate conditions under which the virus population eliminates the target cells. We find that both the filled ring structure and disperse pattern of initial expansion are indicative of treatment failure, where target cells persist in the long run. The hollow ring structure is associated with either target cell extinction or low-level persistence, both of which can be viewed as treatment success. Interestingly, it is found that equilibrium properties of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics in local neighborhoods in the agent-based model can predict the outcome of the spatial virus-cell dynamics, which has important practical implications. This analysis provides a first step towards understanding spatial oncolytic virus dynamics, upon which more detailed investigations and further complexity can be built
Causal Graph ODE: Continuous Treatment Effect Modeling in Multi-agent Dynamical Systems
Real-world multi-agent systems are often dynamic and continuous, where the
agents co-evolve and undergo changes in their trajectories and interactions
over time. For example, the COVID-19 transmission in the U.S. can be viewed as
a multi-agent system, where states act as agents and daily population movements
between them are interactions. Estimating the counterfactual outcomes in such
systems enables accurate future predictions and effective decision-making, such
as formulating COVID-19 policies. However, existing methods fail to model the
continuous dynamic effects of treatments on the outcome, especially when
multiple treatments (e.g., "stay-at-home" and "get-vaccine" policies) are
applied simultaneously. To tackle this challenge, we propose Causal Graph
Ordinary Differential Equations (CAG-ODE), a novel model that captures the
continuous interaction among agents using a Graph Neural Network (GNN) as the
ODE function. The key innovation of our model is to learn time-dependent
representations of treatments and incorporate them into the ODE function,
enabling precise predictions of potential outcomes. To mitigate confounding
bias, we further propose two domain adversarial learning-based objectives,
which enable our model to learn balanced continuous representations that are
not affected by treatments or interference. Experiments on two datasets (i.e.,
COVID-19 and tumor growth) demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed
model
Towards Predictive Computational Models of Oncolytic Virus Therapy: Basis for Experimental Validation and Model Selection
Oncolytic viruses are viruses that specifically infect cancer cells and kill them, while leaving healthy cells largely intact. Their ability to spread through the tumor makes them an attractive therapy approach. While promising results have been observed in clinical trials, solid success remains elusive since we lack understanding of the basic principles that govern the dynamical interactions between the virus and the cancer. In this respect, computational models can help experimental research at optimizing treatment regimes. Although preliminary mathematical work has been performed, this suffers from the fact that individual models are largely arbitrary and based on biologically uncertain assumptions. Here, we present a general framework to study the dynamics of oncolytic viruses that is independent of uncertain and arbitrary mathematical formulations. We find two categories of dynamics, depending on the assumptions about spatial constraints that govern that spread of the virus from cell to cell. If infected cells are mixed among uninfected cells, there exists a viral replication rate threshold beyond which tumor control is the only outcome. On the other hand, if infected cells are clustered together (e.g. in a solid tumor), then we observe more complicated dynamics in which the outcome of therapy might go either way, depending on the initial number of cells and viruses. We fit our models to previously published experimental data and discuss aspects of model validation, selection, and experimental design. This framework can be used as a basis for model selection and validation in the context of future, more detailed experimental studies. It can further serve as the basis for future, more complex models that take into account other clinically relevant factors such as immune responses
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