Stock returns and inflation expectations: Evidence from 20 major countries

We examine the relation between stock market returns and inflation expectations using data for 20 advanced countries. Evidence reveals that a negative relation presents in each of 18 countries; the exceptions are Brazil and Russia. The uncertainty hypothesis is established via evidence that U.S. inflation positively increases equity market volatility (EMV), which has a negative impact on U.S. and global stock returns. Evidence leads to the conclusion that both expected domestic inflation and EMV have adverse impacts on stock returns. The model is robust with different formations of inflation expectations and whether the test equations are examined using nominal or real stock returns

Downside risk and stock returns: An empirical analysis of the long-run and short-run dynamics from the G-7 Countries

This paper presents presents presents a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression (FCVAR) (FCVAR) (FCVAR) (FCVAR) model to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine various relations between stock returns and downside risk. Evidence from major advanced markets markets markets markets supports the supports the notion that notion that notion that downside risk measured by value value value-at -risk ( risk (VaRVaRVaR) has significant information content content that reflects that reflects that reflects that reflects that reflects lagged long-run variance and higher moments of risk for for predict redict ing stock returns. stock returns. stock returns. stock returns. The e The e vidence vidence vidence supports the positive tradeoff hypothesis and and the leverage effect leverage effect leverage in the long in the long in the long run and and for markets in the short run. We find that US downside risk accounts for 54.36% of price discovery, whereas the whereas the whereas the whereas the own effect from own effect from the country itself only 27.06%

Prominent Midlatitude Circulation Signature in High Asia's Surface Climate During Monsoon

©2017. American Geophysical UnionHigh Asia has experienced strong environmental changes in recent decades, as evident in records of glaciers, lakes, tree rings, and vegetation. The multiscale understanding of the climatic drivers, however, is still incomplete. In particular, few systematic assessments have evaluated to what degree, if at all, the midlatitude westerly circulation modifies local surface climates in the reach of the Indian Summer Monsoon. This paper shows that a southward shift of the upper‐tropospheric westerlies contributes significantly to climate variability in the core monsoon season (July–September) by two prominent dipole patterns at the surface: cooling in the west of High Asia contrasts with warming in the east, while moist anomalies in the east and northwest occur with drying along the southwestern margins. Circulation anomalies help to understand the dipoles and coincide with shifts in both the westerly wave train and the South Asian High, which imprint on air mass advection and local energy budgets. The relation of the variabilities to a well‐established index of midlatitude climate dynamics allows future research on climate proxies to include a fresh hypothesis for the interpretation of environmental changes

Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: evidence from Asian markets

Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(7): pp. 1206-1228.We apply a dynamic conditional correlation model to nine Asian daily stock-return data from 1996 to 2003. The empirical evidence confirms a contagion effect. By analyzing the correlation-coefficient series, we identify two phases of the Asian crisis. The first shows an increase in correlation (contagion), and the second shows a continued high correlation (herding). Statistical analysis of the correlation coefficients shows shift in variance during the crisis period, casting doubt on the benefit of international portfolio diversification. Evidence shows that international sovereign credit-rating agencies play a significant role in shaping the structure of dynamic correlations in the Asian markets

Relationship Between Foveal Cone Specialization and Pit Morphology in Albinism

Purpose.Albinism is associated with disrupted foveal development, though intersubject variability is becoming appreciated. We sought to quantify this variability, and examine the relationship between foveal cone specialization and pit morphology in patients with a clinical diagnosis of albinism. Methods. We recruited 32 subjects with a clinical diagnosis of albinism. DNA was obtained from 25 subjects, and known albinism genes were analyzed for mutations. Relative inner and outer segment (IS and OS) lengthening (fovea-to-perifovea ratio) was determined from manually segmented spectral domain-optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) B-scans. Foveal pit morphology was quantified for eight subjects from macular SD-OCT volumes. Ten subjects underwent imaging with adaptive optics scanning light ophthalmoscopy (AOSLO), and cone density was measured. Results. We found mutations in 22 of 25 subjects, including five novel mutations. All subjects lacked complete excavation of inner retinal layers at the fovea, though four subjects had foveal pits with normal diameter and/or volume. Peak cone density and OS lengthening were variable and overlapped with that observed in normal controls. A fifth hyper-reflective band was observed in the outer retina on SD-OCT in the majority of the subjects with albinism. Conclusions. Foveal cone specialization and pit morphology vary greatly in albinism. Normal cone packing was observed in the absence of a foveal pit, suggesting a pit is not required for packing to occur. The degree to which retinal anatomy correlates with genotype or visual function remains unclear, and future examination of larger patient groups will provide important insight on this issue

Exome sequencing of Finnish isolates enhances rare-variant association power.

Exome-sequencing studies have generally been underpowered to identify deleterious alleles with a large effect on complex traits as such alleles are mostly rare. Because the population of northern and eastern Finland has expanded considerably and in isolation following a series of bottlenecks, individuals of these populations have numerous deleterious alleles at a relatively high frequency. Here, using exome sequencing of nearly 20,000 individuals from these regions, we investigate the role of rare coding variants in clinically relevant quantitative cardiometabolic traits. Exome-wide association studies for 64 quantitative traits identified 26 newly associated deleterious alleles. Of these 26 alleles, 19 are either unique to or more than 20 times more frequent in Finnish individuals than in other Europeans and show geographical clustering comparable to Mendelian disease mutations that are characteristic of the Finnish population. We estimate that sequencing studies of populations without this unique history would require hundreds of thousands to millions of participants to achieve comparable association power

Microscopic approach to pion-nucleus dynamics

Elastic scattering of pions from finite nuclei is investigated utilizing a contemporary, momentum--space first--order optical potential combined with microscopic estimates of second--order corrections. The calculation of the first--order potential includes:\ \ (1)~full Fermi--averaging integration including both the delta propagation and the intrinsic nonlocalities in the $\pi$-$N$ amplitude, (2)~fully covariant kinematics, (3)~use of invariant amplitudes which do not contain kinematic singularities, and (4)~a finite--range off--shell pion--nucleon model which contains the nucleon pole term. The effect of the delta--nucleus interaction is included via the mean spectral--energy approximation. It is demonstrated that this produces a convergent perturbation theory in which the Pauli corrections (here treated as a second--order term) cancel remarkably against the pion true absorption terms. Parameter--free results, including the delta--nucleus shell--model potential, Pauli corrections, pion true absorption, and short--range correlations are presented. (2 figures available from authors)Comment: 13 page

Multi-site genetic analysis of diffusion images and voxelwise heritability analysis : a pilot project of the ENIGMA–DTI working group

The ENIGMA (Enhancing NeuroImaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis) Consortium was set up to analyze brain measures and genotypes from multiple sites across the world to improve the power to detect genetic variants that influence the brain. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) yields quantitative measures sensitive to brain development and degeneration, and some common genetic variants may be associated with white matter integrity or connectivity. DTI measures, such as the fractional anisotropy (FA) of water diffusion, may be useful for identifying genetic variants that influence brain microstructure. However, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) require large populations to obtain sufficient power to detect and replicate significant effects, motivating a multi-site consortium effort. As part of an ENIGMA–DTI working group, we analyzed high-resolution FA images from multiple imaging sites across North America, Australia, and Europe, to address the challenge of harmonizing imaging data collected at multiple sites. Four hundred images of healthy adults aged 18–85 from four sites were used to create a template and corresponding skeletonized FA image as a common reference space. Using twin and pedigree samples of different ethnicities, we used our common template to evaluate the heritability of tract-derived FA measures. We show that our template is reliable for integrating multiple datasets by combining results through meta-analysis and unifying the data through exploratory mega-analyses. Our results may help prioritize regions of the FA map that are consistently influenced by additive genetic factors for future genetic discovery studies. Protocols and templates are publicly available at (http://enigma.loni.ucla.edu/ongoing/dti-working-group/)

Deep Chandra X-ray Imaging of a Nearby Radio Galaxy 4C+29.30: X-ray/Radio Connection

We report results from our deep Chandra X-ray observations of a nearby radio galaxy, 4C+29.30 (z=0.0647). The Chandra image resolves structures on sub-arcsec to arcsec scales, revealing complex X-ray morphology and detecting the main radio features: the nucleus, a jet, hotspots, and lobes. The nucleus is absorbed (N(H)=3.95 (+0.27/-0.33)x10^23 atoms/cm^2) with an unabsorbed luminosity of L(2-10 keV) ~ (5.08 +/-0.52) 10^43 erg/s characteristic of Type 2 AGN. Regions of soft (<2 keV) X-ray emission that trace the hot interstellar medium (ISM) are correlated with radio structures along the main radio axis indicating a strong relation between the two. The X-ray emission beyond the radio source correlates with the morphology of optical line-emitting regions. We measured the ISM temperature in several regions across the galaxy to be kT ~ 0.5 with slightly higher temperatures (of a few keV) in the center and in the vicinity of the radio hotspots. Assuming these regions were heated by weak shocks driven by the expanding radio source, we estimated the corresponding Mach number of 1.6 in the southern regions. The thermal pressure of the X-ray emitting gas in the outermost regions suggest the hot ISM is slightly under-pressured with respect to the cold optical-line emitting gas and radio-emitting plasma, which both seem to be in a rough pressure equilibrium. We conclude that 4C+29.30 displays a complex view of interactions between the jet-driven radio outflow and host galaxy environment, signaling feedback processes closely associated with the central active nucleus.Comment: ApJ in pres

Rhamnose is superior to mannitol as a monosaccharide in the dual sugar absorption test: A prospective randomized study in children with treatment-naïve celiac disease

BACKGROUND AND AIM: We sought to correlate two different measures of gut permeability [lactulose:mannitol (L:M) and lactulose:rhamnose (L:R)] to the severity of duodenal histopathology in children with and without elevated antibodies to tissue transglutaminase (tTG). A secondary objective was to correlate gut permeability with celiac disease (CD) serology and indices of inflammation and bacterial product translocation. METHODS: We prospectively randomized children undergoing endoscopy with abnormal ( RESULTS: Of the 54 cases with positive celiac serology, 31 and 69% had modified Marsh 0/1 scores or ≥3a, respectively. Circulating tTG IgA correlated with the modified Marsh score ( CONCLUSIONS: L:R, but not L:M, is associated with modified Marsh scores in children undergoing small bowel biopsy for suspected CD. Despite increased intestinal permeability, we see scant evidence of systemic exposure to gut microbes in these children. Gut permeability testing with L:R may predict which patients with abnormal celiac serology will have biopsy evidence for celiac disease and reduce the proportion of such patients undergoing endoscopy whose Marsh scores are ≤1. M should not be used as a monosaccharide for permeability testing in children