Table_1_Spatial and temporal analysis of African swine fever front-wave velocity in wild boar: implications for surveillance and control strategies.DOCX

The front-wave velocity of African swine fever (ASF) virus spread is depicted through a retrospective spatial and temporal analyses of wild boar outbreaks from Jan. 2014 to Jan. 2022 in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Eastern Poland—regions responsible for more than 50% of all wild boar cases in the EU. The study uses empirical semivariograms in a universal kriging model to assess spatial autocorrelation in notification dates and identifies a discernable large-scale spatial trend. The critical parameter of ASF front-wave velocity was identified (Mean = 66.33 km/month, SD = 163.24) in the whole study area, and explored the variations across countries, wild boar habitat suitability, seasons, and the study period. Statistical differences in front-wave velocity values among countries and temporal clusters are explored, shedding light on potential factors influencing ASF transmission dynamics. The implications of these findings for surveillance and control strategies are discussed.</p

Description of the proxy indicators included in the risk assessment model for ASF release into the EU through illegal importation of pork and pork products for personal consumption.

*<p>proxy indicators are factors likely to influence the risk being assessed.</p

Structure of the release assessment model.

<p>Proxy indicators and their relative weights defined for the assessment of the release of ASF into EU via illegal importations of pork and pork products.</p

Results of the release assessment.

<p>Overall risk scores for the release of ASFV via illegal importation of pork and pork products into the European Union member states.</p

Values and corresponding preference statements used in the pairwise comparison (Malczewski J (1999) GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis. New York, Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. 408 p.).

<p>Values and corresponding preference statements used in the pairwise comparison (Malczewski J (1999) GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis. New York, Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. 408 p.).</p

Overall risk score values and corresponding risk categories used for the release and exposure assessment.

<p>Overall risk score values and corresponding risk categories used for the release and exposure assessment.</p

Structure of the exposure assessment model.

<p>Proxy indicators defined and their relative weights for the assessment of the exposure of ASF into the European Union via illegal importations of pork and pork products.</p

Description of the proxy indicators included in the risk assessment model for ASF release into the EU through illegal importation of pork and pork products for commercial purpose.

*<p>proxy indicators are factors likely to influence the risk being assessed.</p

Combined results of release and exposure assessments, and results of the sensitivity analysis on proxy indicators’ weights.

<p>Scatter plot of the overall release and exposure risk scores for the European Union member states, and the 80% central interquartile range of risk scores resulting from varying proxy indicators’ weights. Abbreviations – AT: Austria, BE: Belgium, BG: Bulgaria, CY: Cyprus, CZ: Czech Republic, DK: Denmark, EE: Estonia, FI: Finland, FR: France, DE: Germany, EL: Greece, HU: Hungary, IE: Ireland, IT: Italy, LV: Latvia, LT: Lithuania, LU: Luxembourg, MT: Malta, NL: Netherlands, PL: Poland, PT: Portugal, RO: Romania, SK: Slovakia, SI: Slovenia, ES: Spain, SE: Sweden, UK: United Kingdom.</p

Results of the exposure assessment.

<p>Overall risk scores for the exposure of the European Union member states if ASFV was released through illegal importation of pork and pork products.</p