Do survey-based expectations mimic inflation in Nigeria?

Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as well as the relationship between BES indicators and selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. The study employed the modified Kaminsky-Reinhart (KLR) Signal Approach, correlation and trend analyses. The results of the modified KLR approach showed that BES inflation index predicts inflation rate only between 5 to 20 per cent threshold, which corresponds with Nigeria inflation series covered by the study. The paper found a weak and statistically insignificant relationship between the BES indicators and the selected macroeconomic indicators (inflation rate, exchange rate and lending rate). The study recommended that BES confidence indicators should be employed with some level of caution in making decision since the precision of its predictive ability is only moderate

Detection of natural structures and classification of HCI-HPR data using robust forward search algorithm

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to proposes a forward search algorithm for detecting and identifying natural structures arising in human-computer interaction (HCI) and human physiological response (HPR) data. Design/methodology/approach – The paper portrays aspects that are essential to modelling and precision in detection. The methods involves developed algorithm for detecting outliers in data to recognise natural patterns in incessant data such as HCI-HPR data. The detected categorical data are simultaneously labelled based on the data reliance on parametric rules to predictive models used in classification algorithms. Data were also simulated based on multivariate normal distribution method and used to compare and validate the original data. Findings – Results shows that the forward search method provides robust features that are capable of repelling over-fitting in physiological and eye movement data. Research limitations/implications – One of the limitations of the robust forward search algorithm is that when the number of digits for residuals value is more than the expected size for stack flow, it normally yields an error caution; to counter this, the data sets are normally standardized by taking the logarithmic function of the model before running the algorithm. Practical implications – The authors conducted some of the experiments at individual residence which may affect environmental constraints. Originality/value – The novel approach to this method is the detection of outliers for data sets based on the Mahalanobis distances on HCI and HPR. And can also involve a large size of data with p possible parameters. The improvement made to the algorithm is application of more graphical display and rendering of the residual plot

Measuring respondent burden in Nigeria: A case study of Central Bank of Nigeria enterprise surveys

This paper uses diffusion indices, percentages and reported time spent to measure the respondent burden in survey of foreign assets and liabilities (SOFAL) and business expectations survey (BES). The results show that respondents found it easy but time consuming to complete the SOFAL questionnaire with an average of 24 hours spent in collecting information and over 2 hours to fill the questionnaire. In contrast, respondents found it much easier and quicker to complete the BES questionnaire, spending an average of 47 minutes to collect relevant information from their records and another 36 minutes to complete the questionnaire. The paper identified problems of documentation, cumbersomeness of the survey instruments and lack of motivation of the respondents as main issues of concern

Consumer confidence indicators and economic fluctuations in Nigeria

Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers, forecasters and the general public. Recent studies indicated the possibility of a slowdown in output, resulting from the pessimism of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria. The study applied the Granger Causality tests, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition to assess if CCI granger causes output growth as well as ascertain the magnitude of the change in GDP resulting from a change in CCI. Results from granger causality tests indicated a causal relationship between CCI indicators and real GDP growth in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study found that CCI explained the movements in economic activities, even though the magnitude was small. These results have important implications for the usefulness of CCI in planning and forecasting macroeconomic aggregates

THE PROSPECTS AND TRAVAILS OF BANK LOAN REPAYMENTS: EMERGING TRENDS AND CHALLENGES IN THE NIGERIAN BANKING INDUSTRY

Abstract Bank lending in every country of the world has almost become inevitable for the growth of the economy and the sustained stimulation of capital flight whether in a developed or developing economy. The banks and affiliated financial institutions have glaringly held forth in this area not only in Nigeria but is indeed an economic conventional global practice. Perennial challenges that have constantly bedeviled this practice of lending is the ugly incidences of huge debt profiles that are left either unpaid or not paid as at when due. This has in some cases, led to the painful collapse of some of these financial institutions and the economy in general like in Nigeria presently. This study has taken a doctrinal and intellectual exposition of many of these challenges, vis-à-vis a holistic examination of some of the legal frameworks establishing these institutions, and a careful review of the operational methodology of the legal system in general. The scope of this research is partly limited to the various ways some loans or lendings could be assessed against the background of some of the legal and operational handicaps that often go along with such practices and the travails of repayments. Researched findings and accompanying recommendations in view of the challenges identified are equally provided for in this wor

End-Users Housing Requirements in Tumfure Housing Estate in Gombe Metropolis, Nigeria

One of the critical success indicators of projects is to meet the requirements of end-users on which their satisfaction depend upon. This study aimed to examine end-users housing requirements in a Tumfure housing estate in Gombe metropolis, Nigeria, to improve end-user satisfaction. The study objectives were: To identify end-users housing requirements in Tumfure housing estate in Gombe metropolis. The survey design was used to collect responses from occupants of the estate using a structured questionnaire that produced a 65 % response rate. The collected data was analysed using descriptive statistical tools of tables and means. The research found that end-users basic housing requirements in the Tumfure housing estate were the flow of natural ventilation and illumination, rooms suitable for a family unit, modern convenience, circulation spaces, and adequate security. The research recommended that end-users requirements and their peculiarities be the primary consideration in designing and developing public housing estate to ensure higher end-user residential satisfaction

Structural breaks, cointegration and demand for money in Nigeria

This paper estimates the money demand function in Nigeria in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis and examines whether its underlying properties has changed over the years. Specifically, the existence of a stable long-run demand for money function during the period 1991:Q1-2013:Q4, while accounting for the possibility of structural breaks is investigated. The Gregory-Hansen residual based test for cointegration detected both intercept and regime shifts in 2007:Q1 as the null of no cointegration is rejected at 1 per cent significance level, indicating that long run relationship exists between real money supply, real income, real monetary policy rate, exchange rate spread and movements in exchange rate in Nigeria. This estimation technique is robust to structural break, which ensures that the estimated parameters are unbiased. The CUSUMSQ test provides evidence of a stable money demand function before and after the crisis. The paper infers that since the relationship among the variables holds over a fairly long period of time, the estimated money demand model provides important foundations for monetary policy setting in Nigeria

Position of the Teaching Profession in Nigeria and Its Effects on Potential Business Teachers in the Country

The study investigated the stance of teaching profession and its effect on potential business teachers in Nigeria.  The study has six objectives and six null hypotheses.    Descriptive survey design was adopted in the study.  Data were collected from 224 business education student-teachers who did their teaching practice in 2012/2013 academic year in Zaria and Sabon Gari local government in Kaduna state.  Structured questionnaire titled Status of Teaching Profession and Future Teachers in Nigeria (STPFTN) was used to elicit data from the respondents.  Data collected were coded and analyzed through SPSS XII.  Chi-square was used to test all the six null hypotheses at significant level of 0.05.  The result revealed among others that the status f teaching profession has significant effect on the attitudes of potential teachers in Nigeria.  it was recommended among others that government should encourage the atmosphere of positive support for education, providing improved training and professional development, increasing teacher salaries, and installing outstanding facilities, this will help to encourage retained existing teachers and attract future teachers into the profession. Keywords: Stance, Teaching Profession, Potential Teachers

Assessment of Disposal and Management of Solid Waste in Damaturu, Yobe State, Nigeria (A Case Study of YOSEPA)

This research assesses the solid waste management problems and implication in Damaturu, Yobe State, Nigeria; the data was generated through primary and secondary sources. 50 questionnaires were administered to households, civil servants, and YOSEPA staff. Direct survey and public interview were conducted. The finding of the study revealed the following: 41 (82%) of the respondents were male while only 9(18%) were female, of which 31 (62%) have been living in Damaturu for more than 2 years. The type of soil wastes generated mostly were organic 30(60%) which are biodegradable, and 35(70%) of the solid waste is dispose of in open land by the inhabitants. Most houses contained 1-5 people 33(66%) 34(68%) respondents revealed that YOSEPA is managing their waste to some extent, 11 (22%), 5(10%) by confer and other organizations respectively. With only 2(4%) of respondents sorted their waste before disposal (which is the first step in proper waste management). Most of the respondents dispose their waste on daily basis 37(74%). Based on the interview, wastes in the environment have some implications to human health and aesthetic nature of the environment. Inadequate financing, low workforce and lack of adequate machinery are the major factors hindering the performance of the agency. The results have provided baseline information on one of the major environmental problems of Yobe State, recommendations were forwarded for addressing the solid waste management problems in the study area and the state. Keywords: Solid waste, Disposal, Management, Agency,     Environment, Damatur