De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies

This paper provides an empirical investigation on the discrepancies between official exchange rate regimes and de facto exchange rate policies in transition economies. Since official and de facto regime choices are not independent of each other, we adopt a bivariate probit model to describe the joint determination of the two regime choices. After finding the important determinants of both regime choices, we use a univariate probit model to describe the determination of regime discrepancies. We find that errors in the selection of official regimes as well as the macroeconomic developments calling for conflicting adjustments in exchange rate regimes are important determinants of regime discrepancies. --

Fear of floating and fear of pegging: An empirical anaysis of de facto exchange rate regimes in developing countries

This paper uses a panel probit model with simultaneous equations to explain the joint determination of de facto and de jure exchange rate regimes in developing countries since 1980. We also derive an ordered-choice panel probit model to explain the causes of discrepancies between the two regime choices. Both models are estimated using simulation-based maximum likelihood methodsl. The results of the simultaneous equations model suggest that the two regime choices are dependent of each other and exhibit considerable state dependence. The ordered probit model provides evidence that regime discrepancies reflect an error-correction mechanism, and the discrepancies are persistent over time. --de facto exchange rate regimes,developing countries,simultaneous equations model,simulated maximum likelihood

Stochastic Community Assembly: Does It Matter in Microbial Ecology?

Understanding the mechanisms controlling community diversity, functions, succession, and biogeography is a central, but poorly understood, topic in ecology, particularly in microbial ecology. Although stochastic processes are believed to play nonnegligible roles in shaping community structure, their importance relative to deterministic processes is hotly debated. The importance of ecological stochasticity in shaping microbial community structure is far less appreciated. Some of the main reasons for such heavy debates are the difficulty in defining stochasticity and the diverse methods used for delineating stochasticity. Here, we provide a critical review and synthesis of data from the most recent studies on stochastic community assembly in microbial ecology. We then describe both stochastic and deterministic components embedded in various ecological processes, including selection, dispersal, diversification, and drift. We also describe different approaches for inferring stochasticity from observational diversity patterns and highlight experimental approaches for delineating ecological stochasticity in microbial communities. In addition, we highlight research challenges, gaps, and future directions for microbial community assembly research

The choice of exchange rate regimes: An empirical analysis for transition economies

We analyze the choice of exchange rate regimes of the 25 transition economies in Europe and the CIS after 1990. The empirical results show that the traditional Optimum Currency Area considerations provide relevant guidance for the exchange rate regime choices in these countries. Moreover, regime choices are influenced by inflation rates, cumulative inflation differentials, and the availability of international reserves. That is, macroeconomic stabilization and the ability to commit to a credible exchange rate peg play important roles in the determination of exchange rate regime choices. Large government deficits have ambiguous effects; they increase the likelihood of moving from a flexible exchange rate to an intermediate peg as well as the likelihood of moving from a fixed to an intermediate peg. --

The unseen world: environmental microbial sequencing and identification methods for ecologists

Archaea, bacteria, microeukaryotes, and the viruses that infect them (collectively “microorganisms”) are foundational components of all ecosystems, inhabiting almost every imaginable environment and comprising the majority of the planet’s organismal and evolutionary diversity. Microorganisms play integral roles in ecosystem functioning; are important in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), sulfur (S), phosphorus (P), and various metals (eg Barnard et al. 2005); and may be vital to ecosystem responses to large-scale climatic change (Mackelprang et al. 2011). Rarely found alone, microorganisms often form complex communities that are dynamic in space and time (Martiny et al. 2006). For these and other reasons, ecologists and environmental scientists have become increasingly interested in understanding microbial dynamics in ecosystems. Ecological studies of microbes in the environment generally focus on determining which organisms are present and what functional roles they are playing or could play. Rapid advances in molecular and bioinformatic approaches over the past decade have dramatically reduced the difficulty and cost of addressing such questions (Figure 1; WebTable 1). Yet the range of methodologies currently in use and the rapid pace of their ongoing development can be daunting for researchers unaccustomed to these technologies

Fear of floating and fear of pegging: An empirical anaysis of de facto exchange rate regimes in developing countries

This paper uses a panel probit model with simultaneous equations to explain the joint determination of de facto and de jure exchange rate regimes in developing countries since 1980. We also derive an ordered-choice panel probit model to explain the causes of discrepancies between the two regime choices. Both models are estimated using simulation-based maximum likelihood methodsl. The results of the simultaneous equations model suggest that the two regime choices are dependent of each other and exhibit considerable state dependence. The ordered probit model provides evidence that regime discrepancies reflect an error-correction mechanism, and the discrepancies are persistent over time

De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies

This paper provides an empirical investigation on the discrepancies between official exchange rate regimes and de facto exchange rate policies in transition economies. Since official and de facto regime choices are not independent of each other, we adopt a bivariate probit model to describe the joint determination of the two regime choices. After finding the important determinants of both regime choices, we use a univariate probit model to describe the determination of regime discrepancies. We find that errors in the selection of official regimes as well as the macroeconomic developments calling for conflicting adjustments in exchange rate regimes are important determinants of regime discrepancies

The determination of capital controls: Which role do exchange rate regimes play?

This paper investigates the role of exchange rate regime choices in the determination of capital controls in transition economies. We first use a simultaneous equations model to allow direct interactions between decisions on capital controls and on exchange rate regimes. We find that exchange rate regime choices strongly influence the imposition or removal of capital controls, but the feed-back effect is weak. We further estimate a single equation model for capital controls with exchange rate regime choices as independent variables, and we find that there is a hump-shaped relationship between exchange rate regime flexibility and capital control intensity

The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A mulitnominal panal analysis

This paper analyses the choices of exchange rate regimes in developing countries since 1980. Static and dynamic random-effects multinominal panel models are estimated using simulation-based techniques. Explanatory variables include OCA fundamentals, stabilization considerations, currency crises factors, and political and institutional features. The results reveal strong state dependence in regime choices

The choice of exchange rate regimes: An empirical analysis for transition economies

We analyze the choice of exchange rate regimes of the 25 transition economies in Europe and the CIS after 1990. The empirical results show that the traditional Optimum Currency Area considerations provide relevant guidance for the exchange rate regime choices in these countries. Moreover, regime choices are influenced by inflation rates, cumulative inflation differentials, and the availability of international reserves. That is, macroeconomic stabilization and the ability to commit to a credible exchange rate peg play important roles in the determination of exchange rate regime choices. Large government deficits have ambiguous effects; they increase the likelihood of moving from a flexible exchange rate to an intermediate peg as well as the likelihood of moving from a fixed to an intermediate peg