309 research outputs found

    Assessing EU-10 Banking Sector's Resilience to Credit Losses

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    The article estimates the likely credit losses in the EU10 countries' banking sector, supposing that economic conditions were to deteriorate further, and that local currencies were depreciated. Factors that may affect the cumulative level of credit losses are discussed. The article concludes that even if the macroeconomic environment were to worsen, credit losses in the EU10 banking sector are likely to be substantial, but remain manageable.EU10, credit losses, banking sector, banking crisis

    Europe as a convergence engine -- heterogeneity and investment opportunities in emerging Europe

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    This paper provides empirical evidence that countries in emerging Europe reaped the benefits of international financial integration over the past 12 years by attracting sizeable foreign capital inflows and accelerating medium-term growth. But the aggregate pattern masks substantial heterogeneity across countries; namely, new European Union member states and the European Union candidate countries are different from the European Union neighborhood. The growth benefits are supported from both a flow and a stock perspective in terms of the link between foreign savings and growth. While foreign savings might in part substitute for national savings, the analysis finds that the channel to high growth in these countries is, primarily, through making possible the pursuit of investment opportunities that would otherwise remain unfunded; in turn, this seems to be intimately linked to the opportunities created by European Union membership. Although this conclusion does not disappear if the outlier observations of the credit boom period that preceded the financial crisis are dropped from the sample, it does suggest that these excesses did not play as positive a role for growth.Economic Theory&Research,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Achieving Shared Growth,Emerging Markets,Access to Finance

    Bank Flows and Basel III—Determinants and Regional Differences in Emerging Markets

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    The global financial crisis has led to a range of reform proposals concerning the regulatory framework governing the banking sector—collectively referred to as “Basel III.” Although the proposed reforms are expected to generate substantial benefits by reducing the frequency and intensity of banking crises, concerns have been raised that, in the short term, the costs of moving to higher capital ratios may lead banks to raise their lending rates and reduce lending. This note explores the near-term implications of Basel III capital regulations on bank flows to emerging markets, based on an analysis of the key determinants of these flows.Basel III, capital adequacy, financial crisis, financial regulation, financial reform, banking cirsis, lending, emerging markets, trade, financing, SMEs

    Finding a balance between growth and vulnerability trade-offs : lessons from emerging Europe and the CIS

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    This paper examines the growth patterns of emerging Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries prior to the global financial crisis. The aim is to draw lessons on what policies can best position these countries going forward to enjoy growth without a buildup in macro and financial vulnerability. Cluster analysis is used to classify these countries across the growth and vulnerability dimensions; namely, a classification into low or high growth outcomes, each of which may occur with low or high vulnerability features. The vulnerability indicators used are multifaceted, covering both the domestic and the external dimensions that have been identified in previous studies as being good indicators of likelihood of crisis -- itself understood as multidimensional. Based on multinomial logit regressions, the initial conditions and the economic policies that might affect the probabilities of being in each of the four possible cluster combinations are examined. Many (if not most) of the countries in the sample experienced very large capital inflows relative to their gross domestic product prior to the crisis, which can complicate macroeconomic management and lead to a buildup of vulnerability. These large inflows were partly due to the high liquidity in global markets and, at least for some countries in the country sample, the particular attractiveness of"new Europe and emerging countries in the region"in the eyes of foreign investors. Nonetheless, the analysis finds strong evidence that the macroeconomic and structural policies that over time influence the structure of the economy, can play a significant role in explaining (and, going forward, in influencing) the different growth and vulnerability patterns experienced by the countries covered in this paper.Currencies and Exchange Rates,Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Conditions and Volatility

    Banking flows and financial crisis -- financial interconnectedness and basel III effects

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    This paper examines the factors that determine banking flows from advanced economies to emerging markets. In addition to the usual determinants of capital flows in terms of global push and local pull factors, it examines the role of bilateral factors, such as growth differentials and economic size, as well as contagion factors and measures of the depth in financial interconnectedness between lenders and borrowers. The analysis finds profound differences across regions. In particular, in spite of the severe impact of the global financial crisis, banking flows in emerging Europe stand out as a more stable region than is the case in other developing regions. Assuming that the determinants of banking flows remain unchanged in the presence of structural changes, the authors use these results to explore the short-term implications of Basel III capital regulations on banking flows to emerging markets.Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Emerging Markets,Access to Finance,Economic Theory&Research

    La ficciĂłn interactiva: TelevisiĂłn y Web 2.0

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    La asociación entre televisión y web 2.0 inaugura nuevas modalidades de relación con el espectador definidas por la retroalimentación entre producción y recepción, que están modificando radicalmente los paradigmas de la textualidad y la interpretación. La falta de especificidad de los nuevos medios y la vocación social de Internet convierten las redes sociales en una caja de resonancia de la televisión. Sin embargo, el impacto de las nuevas alianzas intermediáticas contrasta con su escasa rentabilidad, lo que impulsa a los actores económicos a buscar nuevas formas de negocio abocadas a difuminar los confines entre lo público y lo privado.Association between television and Web 2.0 inaugurates new modalities of relation with the viewer, defined by the increasing feedback between production and reception. Consequently, Textual and Interpretative paradigms are being modified. The lack of specificity of new media and the strong social vocation of Internet are turning social networks into television’s sounding board. However, the impact of new inter-media alliances contrasts with its lack of profit, which impulses economic actors to seek new business models characterized by blurring the boundaries between private and public
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