Impacts of Ageing Population on Monetary and Exchange Rate Managements in Singapore

This paper finds that the ageing of the population in Singapore will cause a reversal of the current net Central Provident Fund (CPF) contribution into a substantial net CPF withdrawal from 2025, with a peak occurring at 2035. The result is qualitatively robust to changes in the underlying assumptions of the projection. The paper then highlights the implications of this change on the exchange rate and monetary managements in Singapore. First, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)’s ability to influence Singapore’s exchange rate will be greatly hampered. Second, the net CPF withdrawal will mean sustained liquidity injection into (instead of the usual liquidity drain from) the economy. To avoid unnecessary inflation, the MAS has to find a sustainable way to mob up the excess liquidity due to the sustained liquidity injection. As a simple reversal of MAS’s current foreign exchange market operation will result in substantial shrinkage of foreign reserves, the paper proposes the issuance of government bonds to achieve the dual objectives of mobbing up the excess liquidity and avoiding the shrinkage of foreign reserves. This measure will also help the bond market development in Singapore. Finally, the paper proposes two other measures that can help maintain MAS’s influence on Singapore’s exchange rate to a reasonable level in the longer future.Ageing Population, Central Provident Fund, Exchange Rate System, Monetary Policy, Singapore.

Estimating the number of errors in a system using a Martingale approach

A new, efficient procedure estimates the number of errors in a system. A known number of seeded errors are inserted into a system. The failure intensities of the seeded and real errors are allowed to be different and time dependent. When an error is detected during the test, it is removed from the system. The testing process is observed for a fixed amount of time τ. Martingale theory is used to derive a class of estimators for the number of seeded errors in a continuous time setting. Some of the estimators and their associated standard deviations have explicit expressions. An optimal estimator among the class of estimators is obtained. A simulation study assesses the performance of the proposed estimators.published_or_final_versio

The spatial pattern of premature mortality in Hong Kong: how does it relate to public housing?

Research into understanding the relationship between access to housing, health and wellbeing in cities has yielded mixed evidence to date and has been limited to case studies from Western countries. Many studies appear to highlight the negative effects of public housing in influencing the health of its residents. Current trends in the urban housing markets in cities of advanced Asian economies and debates surrounding the role of government in providing housing underscore the need for more focused research into housing and health. In this paper, we investigate Hong Kong as an example of a thriving Asian city by exploring and comparing the intra-urban geographies of premature mortality and public housing provision in the city. Using a fully Bayesian spatial structural model, we estimate associations between public housing provision and different types of premature mortality. We find significant geographic variations in premature mortality within Hong Kong during the five-year period 2005–2009, with positive associations between the residents of public housing and premature mortality risk. But the associations attenuate or are even reversed for premature mortality of injuries and non-communicable diseases after controlling for local deprivation, housing instability, access to local amenities and other neighbourhood characteristics. The results indicate that public housing may have a protective effect on community health, which contradicts the findings of similar studies carried out in Western cities. We suggest reasons why the association between public housing and health differs in Hong Kong and discuss the implications for housing policy in Hong Kong and other Asian cities

A Markov chain model for studying suicide dynamics: an illustration of the Rose theorem

Background: High-risk strategies would only have a modest effect on suicide prevention within a population. It is best to incorporate both high-risk and population-based strategies to prevent suicide. This study aims to compare the effectiveness of suicide prevention between high-risk and population-based strategies. Methods: A Markov chain illness and death model is proposed to determine suicide dynamic in a population and examine its effectiveness for reducing the number of suicides by modifying certain parameters of the model. Assuming a population with replacement, the suicide risk of the population was estimated by determining the final state of the Markov model. Results: The model shows that targeting the whole population for suicide prevention is more effective than reducing risk in the high-risk tail of the distribution of psychological distress (i.e. the mentally ill). Conclusions: The results of this model reinforce the essence of the Rose theorem that lowering the suicidal risk in the population at large may be more effective than reducing the high risk in a small population

Molecular Dynamics Computer Simulation of the Dynamics of Supercooled Silica

We present the results of a large scale computer simulation of supercooled silica. We find that at high temperatures the diffusion constants show a non-Arrhenius temperature dependence whereas at low temperature this dependence is also compatible with an Arrhenius law. We demonstrate that at low temperatures the intermediate scattering function shows a two-step relaxation behavior and that it obeys the time temperature superposition principle. We also discuss the wave-vector dependence of the nonergodicity parameter and the time and temperature dependence of the non-Gaussian parameter.Comment: 5 pages, Latex, 6 postscript figure

Validation of a Multivariate Serum Profile for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Using a Prospective Multi-Site Collection

In previous studies we described the use of a retrospective collection of ovarian cancer and benign disease samples, in combination with a large set of multiplexed immunoassays and a multivariate pattern recognition algorithm, to develop an 11-biomarker classification profile that is predictive for the presence of epithelial ovarian cancer. In this study, customized, Luminex-based multiplexed immunoassay kits were GMP-manufactured and the classification profile was refined from 11 to 8 biomarkers (CA-125, epidermal growth factor receptor, CA 19-9, C-reactive protein, tenascin C, apolipoprotein AI, apolipoprotein CIII, and myoglobin). The customized kits and the 8-biomarker profile were then validated in a double-blinded manner using prospective samples collected from women scheduled for surgery, with a gynecologic oncologist, for suspicion of having ovarian cancer. The performance observed in model development held in validation, demonstrating 81.1% sensitivity (95% CI 72.6 – 87.9%) for invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 85.4% specificity (95% CI 81.1 – 88.9%) for benign ovarian conditions. The specificity for normal healthy women was 95.6% (95% CI 83.6 – 99.2%). These results have encouraged us to undertake a second validation study arm, currently in progress, to examine the performance of the 8-biomarker profile on the population of women not under the surgical care of a gynecologic oncologist

Does the Axillary Lymph Node Ratio Have Any Added Prognostic Value over pN Staging for South East Asian Breast Cancer Patients?

10.1371/journal.pone.0045809PLoS ONE79

Cross Sectional and Longitudinal Associations between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Age Related Macular Degeneration in the EPIC-Norfolk Eye Study.

PURPOSE: To examine the cross sectional and longitudinal relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a large British cohort study. METHODS: The EPIC Norfolk Eye study is nested in a larger prospective cohort study. Data on cardiovascular risk factors were collected at baseline (1993-1997) and follow up (2006-2011) via clinical examination, validated lifestyle questionnaires and serum blood samples. AMD was ascertained using standardised grading of fundus photographs at the follow up. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between baseline and follow up risk factors with AMD. RESULTS: 5,344 pairs (62.0% of total 8623) of fundus photographs were of sufficient quality for grading of AMD in participants with mean age of 67.4 years old (range 44-91) at diagnosis. There were 28 cases of late AMD (0.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.3-0.8%) and 645 cases of early AMD (12.1%, 95%CI=11.2-13.0.%). In multivariable analysis, older people with higher levels of baseline high density lipoprotein- cholesterol (HDL-C ) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were more likely to have any signs of AMD, after adjusting for sex, education, smoking, and systolic blood pressure. In cross sectional analysis, only older age and higher HDL were significantly associated with AMD. CONCLUSIONS: We have found that older age and higher levels of CRP and HDL-C were associated with increased odds of AMD in this population in the longitudinal analysis, but older age and HDL-C, not CRP was significantly associated with AMD in the cross sectional analysis. The prevalence of AMD in this cohort was low compared to other cohorts in Europe, the US and Australia, and probably reflects the some selection biases in follow up participation as well as the low rate of smoking among our healthy participants.EPIC-Norfolk infrastructure and core functions are supported by grants from the Medical Research Council (G0401527) and Cancer Research UK (C864/A8257). The clinic for the third health examination was funded by Age UK Research into Ageing grant (262). Dr Yip is a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Lecturer. Dr Khawaja is a Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Fellow. Michelle Chan is an MRC/RCOphth Clinical Training Fellow and has received additional support from the International Glaucoma Association. Professor Foster has received additional support from the Richard Desmond Charitable Trust (via Fight for Sight). Professor Foster and Tunde Peto received funding from the Department for Health through the award made by the NIHR to Moorfields Eye Hospital and the UCL Institute of Ophthalmology for a specialist Biomedical Research Centre for Ophthalmology.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from PLoS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.013256

Topical Beta-Blockers and Cardiovascular Mortality: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis with Data from the EPIC-Norfolk Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: To determine if topical beta-blocker use is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality, particularly among people with self-reported glaucoma. METHODS: All participants who participated in the first health check (N = 25,639) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC) Norfolk cohort (1993-2013) were included in this prospective cohort study, with a median follow-up of 17.0 years. We determined use of topical beta-blockers at baseline through a self-reported questionnaire and prescription check at the first clinical visit. Cardiovascular mortality was ascertained through data linkage with the Office for National Statistics mortality database. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models. Meta-analysis of the present study's results together with other identified literature was performed using a random effects model. RESULTS: We did not find an association between the use of topical beta-blockers and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.93, 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.67-1.30). In the 514 participants with self-reported glaucoma, no association was found between the use of topical beta-blockers and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.56-1.40). In the primary meta-analysis of four publications, there was no evidence of an association between the use of topical beta-blockers and cardiovascular mortality (pooled HR estimate 1.10, 95% CI 0.84-1.36). CONCLUSION: Topical beta-blockers do not appear to be associated with excess cardiovascular mortality. This evidence does not indicate that a change in current practice is warranted, although clinicians should continue to assess individual patients and their cardiovascular risk prior to commencing topical beta-blockers.EPIC-Norfolk infrastructure and core functions are supported by grants from the Medical Research Council (G1000143) and Cancer Research UK (C864/A14136). The clinic for the third health examination was funded by Age UK Research into Ageing (262). Mr Khawaja is a Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Fellow. Mr Foster has received additional support from the Richard Desmond Charitable Trust (via Fight for Sight) and the Department for Health through the award made by the National Institute for Health Research to Moorfields Eye Hospital and the UCL Institute of Ophthalmology for a specialist Biomedical Research Centre for Ophthalmology.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Taylor & Francis via http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09286586.2016.1213301

On the Maintenance Costs and Exit Costs of the Peg in Hong Kong

This paper attempts to pioneer a discussion on the exit and maintenance costs of the Currency Board System (CBS) in Hong Kong, and hopes to invite more debate on the issue. It suggests that the exit costs will depend on the timing of an exit, whether there are supplementary packages to mitigate the exit costs, and the choice of an alternative exchange rate system. In particular, it suggests that the monitoring band system favored by Williamson (2000) could help to reduce the exit costs. In addition, the paper points out that there are ways to reduce both the exit and maintenance costs. It then proposes a reform that could benefit the economy regardless of whether the policy maker eventually chooses to continue with or abandon the peg. The study is not only crucial to Hong Kong, but also important to other economies with a CBS as well as to the debate on the choice of exchange rate system.currency board, monitoring band, exchange rate policy, Hong Kong, Singapore.