42 research outputs found
A Predictive Model for Financial Crises: An Exploratory Public Policy Tool
This paper aims to establish an early warning system for Malaysia to project future financial crises. We investigate the macroeconomic and financial factors in predicting financial crises using the logit econometric model and monthly data with the sample period from January 1980 to December 2003. Four indicators namely regional crisis dummy, current account balance, M2 growth and real exchange rate show significance and therefore, are incorporated in crisis prediction. The early warning system’s predictive power is then examined against various crises periods including the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The empirical results show that the early warning system exhibits forecasting ability. Both in-sample and out-ofsample performance evaluations affirm the system’s ability to predict the 1997 Asian financial crisis with at least one early warning signal issued within the 12-month period prior to the actual crisis. The early warning system should be treated as a supplement to policymakers existing forecasting tools in estimating the probability of crisis and assessing a country’s vulnerability rather than as an exclusive tool for crisis prediction.- financial crisis, economic modelling, policy modelling, monetary policy
Revisiting the Phillips curve: Visualization from a multidimensional graphical perspective
This article explores the possibility of visualizing the Phillips curve from a multidimensional perspective. We use a new multidimensional coordinate space, the mega-dynamic disks multivariable random coordinate space in vertical position, which visualizes the graphical behavior of the Phillips curve from a multidimensional point of view. We take A. W. Phillips's original paper published in Economica in 1958, 'The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957,' as our main bibliographical reference. The same paper also serves as our main database for transforming the original Phillips curve into a multidimensional graphical form. In essence, our paper extends the significance of the Phillips curve beyond mere theory to serve as a practical instrument for solving economic problems
The evolution of complex systems theory and the advancement of econophysics methods in the study of stock market crashes
This paper traces the origin and development of the complex systems theory over the course of history, up to its latest advancement in the study of stock market crashes. The trail of the theory’s fuzzy evolution is expansive that covers the ground of the complexity epistemology, natural science and computer science. A meticulous review is undertaken to distinguish the complex systems theory from another seemingly overlapping theory of the chaos systems. The paper recounts how researchers from cross-disciplines, particularly from the econophysics have banded together to consolidate and diffuse the application of the complex systems theory in the economics and further discusses the methodological contribution of the econophysics in the area of stock market. To date, the complex systems theory and the methodologies from the econophysics are well-established as the frontier for studies in stock market bubbles and crashes
Examining the heterogeneous regimes of stock market identified with two variants of B-B algorithms that differ in rigidness of specification
This paper studies the more prolonged type of heterogeneous regimes in the stock market identified with the non-parametric Bry and Boschan (1971) (B-B) algorithm. Specifically, the paper extracts and examines the statistical properties of these durations derived using two variants of B-B algorithms, namely the Lunde and Timmerman (2004) B-B algorithm and the Candelon, Piplack and Straetmans (2008) B-B algorithm. These two algorithms are contrasting extremes in terms of specification rigidness. The results show that the Candelon et al. (2008) B-B algorithm which is less rigid between the two, detects more frequent switching of regimes, has lower standard deviation and yields higher values of cumulative return and loss. The greater sensitivity, however, may not imply superiority as the fundamental aim of stock market regimes dating is to clearly detect the unobserved long-run structure of the market
Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.
BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700
An alternative visualization of business cycles in chaos
This paper suggests the application of multi-dimensional graphs in the study of business cycles in the context of chaos theory. The alternative multidimensional graphic method used is known as the Kite-Cartesian space (Ruiz, 2006). The Kite-Cartesian space is an alternative analytical tool for observing changes in the behavior of business cycles from a multi-dimensional perspective. We apply the Kite-Cartesian analysis to assess U.S. business cycles from 1940 to 2005 by trimester. The Kite-Cartesian approach provides optical "snapshots" of the national income make-up at any one point in time, thus revolutionizing existing methods of visualization
The Openness Growth Monitoring Model (OGM-Model): A note for JPM readers
This short communication is interested to give more details about how the Openness Growth Monitoring Model (OGM-Model) works to the JPM readers. The main idea is to extend certain points from the original paper entitled "The Openness Growth Monitoring Model" that was published in the Journal of Policy Modeling in the year 2006.Econographicology Macroeconomic policy Economic teaching Multi-dimensional graphs Cartesian spaces and international trade Openness and income growth