Histogram of PCM_Ps of land uses in Model A, B, C, D.

Histogram of PCM_Ps of land uses in Model A, B, C, D.</p

Convergence curves of Models A, B, C, D.

<p>Convergence curves of Models A, B, C, D.</p

Data for the PSOLA model.

<p>Data for the PSOLA model.</p

Simulating the Conversion of Rural Settlements to Town Land Based on Multi-Agent Systems and Cellular Automata

<div><p>Rapid urbanization in China has triggered the conversion of land from rural to urban use, particularly the conversion of rural settlements to town land. This conversion is the result of the joint effects of the geographic environment and agents involving the government, investors, and farmers. To understand the dynamic interaction dominated by agents and to predict the future landscape of town expansion, a small town land-planning model is proposed based on the integration of multi-agent systems (MAS) and cellular automata (CA). The MAS-CA model links the decision-making behaviors of agents with the neighbor effect of CA. The interaction rules are projected by analyzing the preference conflicts among agents. To better illustrate the effects of the geographic environment, neighborhood, and agent behavior, a comparative analysis between the CA and MAS-CA models in three different towns is presented, revealing interesting patterns in terms of quantity, spatial characteristics, and the coordinating process. The simulation of rural settlements conversion to town land through modeling agent decision and human-environment interaction is very useful for understanding the mechanisms of rural-urban land-use change in developing countries. This process can assist town planners in formulating appropriate development plans.</p></div

The logistic regression coefficients of the MAS-CA model in the three towns.

<p>Note: PCP = Percentage Correctly Predicted; NR² = Nagelkerke R Square; -2LL = -2 Log Likelihood; B = Beta Coefficient; S.E. = Standard Error; Sig = Significance;/ = VIF >5.0 or TOL <0.2; – = Sig ≥0.05; * = Significant at 0.001.</p

Statistics for the result maps of Model A, B, C, D.

Statistics for the result maps of Model A, B, C, D.</p

Scenario simulations for the conversion of rural settlements to town land for the three towns using CA and MAS-CA from 2010 to 2020.

<p>Rural settlements converted to town land are presented with green cells and red cells. The green cells indicate the inconsistent conversion of rural settlements to town land between CA and MAS-CA simulation, whereas the red cells indicate the consistent cells. (A) CA simulation in Yuyue; (B) CA simulation in Guanqiao; (C) CA simulation in Panjiawan; (D) MAS-CA simulation in Yuyue; (E) MAS-CA simulation in Guanqiao; (F) MAS-CA simulation in Panjiawan.</p

The actual town land and simulated town land for the three towns in 2010, based on CA and MAS-CA.

<p>(A) Actual town land for Yuyue in 2010; (B) Simulated town land for Yuyue using CA in 2010; (C) Simulated town land for Yuyue using MAS-CA in 2010; (D) Actual town land for Guanqiao; (E) Simulated town land for Guanqiao using CA in 2010; (F) Simulated town land for Guanqiao using MAS-CA in 2010; (G) Actual town land for Panjiawan in 2010; (H) Simulated town land for Panjiawan using CA in 2010; (I) Simulated town land for Panjiawan using MAS-CA in 2010.</p

Suitability of the status quo and optimal solution.

<p>Suitability of the status quo and optimal solution.</p

The main characteristics of rural-urban MAS-based models.

<p>The main characteristics of rural-urban MAS-based models.</p