Modelling default and likelihood reasoning as probabilistic

A probabilistic analysis of plausible reasoning about defaults and about likelihood is presented. 'Likely' and 'by default' are in fact treated as duals in the same sense as 'possibility' and 'necessity'. To model these four forms probabilistically, a logic QDP and its quantitative counterpart DP are derived that allow qualitative and corresponding quantitative reasoning. Consistency and consequence results for subsets of the logics are given that require at most a quadratic number of satisfiability tests in the underlying propositional logic. The quantitative logic shows how to track the propagation error inherent in these reasoning forms. The methodology and sound framework of the system highlights their approximate nature, the dualities, and the need for complementary reasoning about relevance

Developing social innovators and social entrepreneurs through a creative and innovative programme

In today's increasingly interdependent and rapidly changing world, understanding the transformations of the 21st century that are characterized by uneven development, accelerated globalization, economic uncertainty, entrenched and complex social problems requires an academic approach that is interdisciplinary and focused on both innovation and commercialisation. This paper will focus on the development of a Social Venture Builder (SVB) programme at the University of Northampton; an example of a course that aims to develop the skills of the innovators and entrepreneurs whilst at the same time developing sustainable social ventures. We will place this in a wider context of the University of Northampton’s institution wide strategy around social enterprise and how this is developing from one that concentrates on developing social enterprises to a more embedded strategy that develops creative and socially entrepreneurial students. Ultimately, as a University we believe we have to develop a creative learning environment that nurtures talent as well as engages with communities and neighbourhoods whilst connecting us with other local, regional, national and international networks

"Manufacturing a Crisis: the Neocon Attack on Social Security"

For seven decades, the far right has never veered from its avowed mission to gut America's most comprehensive, successful, and popular safety net: Social Security. While it had won a few small battles (most notably, the Greenspan Commission's huge 1983 payroll tax hikes and two-year increase in the normal retirement age), its efforts never gained much political traction before 2000. Ironically, the Clinton administration provided some much-needed support to the conservative think tanks' preposterous claim that Social Security faces financial Armageddon. And candidate Al Gore's only significant campaign issue involved maintaining "lockboxes" to protect the trust fund by dedicating a portion of projected 15-year budget surpluses to the program.