Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Activity levels, dietary energy intake, and body composition in children who walk to school

Although differences in daily activity levels have been assessed in cross-sectional walk-to-school studies, no one has assessed differences in body composition and dietary energy intake at the same time. In this study of 239 primary school children, there were no significant differences in daily activity levels, body composition, or estimated dietary energy intake between those who walk to school (WALK) and those who travel by car (CAR; p < .05). WALK children were more active between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. than CAR children (p < .05). In addition, there were no significant differences in the main analysis when participants were subgrouped by gender and age. © 2007 Human Kinetics, Inc

Energy expenditure and perceived effort during brisk walking and running in 8- to 10-year-old children

There are no previous reports of energy expenditure and perceived effort during brisk-walking and running at speeds self-selected by young children. Fifty four participants (age 8-11 years old) performed 1500 m of brisk-walking and running in a marked school playground, and were given simple instructions to either 'walk quickly' or to 'jog'. During the running the children achieved higher mean speeds and a greater total energy expenditure (p .05). These findings suggest that under certain conditions children find it just as easy to run as they do to walk briskly, even though the speed and energy expenditure is significantly higher. © 2010 Human Kinetics, Inc

Editor-in-Chief JEPonline The Effect of 24 Weeks of Moderate Intensity Walking upon Metabolic Syndrome Risk Factors in Previously Sedentary/Low Active Men

ABSTRACT , respectively). The post-intervention changes: insulin correlated with WC (R=0.441; P&lt;0.002); ISI negatively with WC (R= -0.433; P&lt;0.003), indicating the changes in body composition to have affected insulin metabolism and insulin sensitivity. The men who walked at an easily attainable intensity for most mobile adults of ~51% of relative VO 2 max showed reduced WC and enhanced insulin sensitivity, thus reducing their risk of MetS and type II diabetes

Description and Cross-Sectional Analyses of 25,880 Adults and Children in the UK National Registry of Rare Kidney Diseases Cohort

Introduction: The National Registry of Rare Kidney Diseases (RaDaR) collects data from people living with rare kidney diseases across the UK, and is the world's largest, rare kidney disease registry. We present the clinical demographics and renal function of 25,880 prevalent patients and sought evidence of bias in recruitment to RaDaR. Methods: RaDaR is linked with the UK Renal Registry (UKRR, with which all UK patients receiving kidney replacement therapy [KRT] are registered). We assessed ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the following: (i) prevalent RaDaR patients receiving KRT compared with patients with eligible rare disease diagnoses receiving KRT in the UKRR, (ii) patients recruited to RaDaR compared with all eligible unrecruited patients at 2 renal centers, and (iii) the age-stratified ethnicity distribution of RaDaR patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) was compared to that of the English census. Results: We found evidence of disparities in ethnicity and social deprivation in recruitment to RaDaR; however, these were not consistent across comparisons. Compared with either adults recruited to RaDaR or the English population, children recruited to RaDaR were more likely to be of Asian ethnicity (17.3% vs. 7.5%, P-value < 0.0001) and live in more socially deprived areas (30.3% vs. 17.3% in the most deprived Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintile, P-value < 0.0001). Conclusion: We observed no evidence of systematic biases in recruitment of patients into RaDaR; however, the data provide empirical evidence of negative economic and social consequences (across all ethnicities) experienced by families with children affected by rare kidney diseases