18 research outputs found

    Core model equations<sup>*</sup> derived from data of population dynamics, disease transmission, disease progression, and treatment effects.

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    <p>Core model equations<sup><a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0163095#t002fn001" target="_blank">*</a></sup> derived from data of population dynamics, disease transmission, disease progression, and treatment effects.</p

    Estimated prevalence of CHC in Thailand over the next 20 years.

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    <p>Estimated prevalence of CHC in Thailand over the next 20 years using current standard treatments and novel antiviral treatments in the conservative coverage scenario and novel antiviral treatments in the extensive coverage scenario.</p

    Estimated cumulative death related to HCV.

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    <p>Estimated cumulative total death related to HCV (A) and cumulative death from liver decompensation and HCC related to HCV (B) based on current and extensive treatment coverage over the next 20 years.</p

    Sensitivity analysis.

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    <p>Estimated CHC prevalence with different case distributions by fibrosis stage in conservative treatment coverage scenario (A), estimated prevalence of CHC with different case distributions by fibrosis stage in extensive treatment coverage scenario (B), estimated cumulative overall CHC-related death with different levels of treatment coverage (C), and estimated annual incidence of HCC-associated HCV with different levels of treatment coverage (D).</p

    Estimated prevalence of CHC patients.

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    <p>Estimated prevalence of patients with CHC based on previous data and transmission and progression of CHC using current standard treatments in Thailand. The model was created by fitting reported 1994–2014 CHC prevalence data. The reported prevalence of chronic HCV infection in the general population was 1.4%–4.2% in 1994–2005, 2.15% in 2004, 2.2% in 2005–2008, and 0.97% in 2014. Circles represent the observed data, and the black line represents prediction of the model. The right Y-axis represents the estimated population of Thailand derived by the model.</p

    Study design of the transmission and disease progression model.

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    <p>The fibrosis stage of progression develops gradually, and cirrhosis and decompensation develop over time. The risk of developing HCC starts after cirrhosis. Survival rates depend on the severity of disease at each stage. The current standard treatment in Thailand was compared with new direct-acting antivirals with different treatment coverage and allocations. *HCV-related mortality.</p

    Estimated percentage beneficial effect on each infection of individual empirical treatments.

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    <p>Inclusion threshold: percentage of all febrile cases of diseases treatable by each individual empirical treatment that must be exceeded for the inclusion of that treatment in an empirical protocol.</p
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