Missing Data in Sparse Transition Matrix Estimation for Sub-Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Processes

High-dimensional time series data exist in numerous areas such as finance, genomics, healthcare, and neuroscience. An unavoidable aspect of all such datasets is missing data, and dealing with this issue has been an important focus in statistics, control, and machine learning. In this work, we consider a high-dimensional estimation problem where a dynamical system, governed by a stable vector autoregressive model, is randomly and only partially observed at each time point. Our task amounts to estimating the transition matrix, which is assumed to be sparse. In such a scenario, where covariates are highly interdependent and partially missing, new theoretical challenges arise. While transition matrix estimation in vector autoregressive models has been studied previously, the missing data scenario requires separate efforts. Moreover, while transition matrix estimation can be studied from a high-dimensional sparse linear regression perspective, the covariates are highly dependent and existing results on regularized estimation with missing data from i.i.d.~covariates are not applicable. At the heart of our analysis lies 1) a novel concentration result when the innovation noise satisfies the convex concentration property, as well as 2) a new quantity for characterizing the interactions of the time-varying observation process with the underlying dynamical system

Regularized Non-Gaussian Image Denoising

In image denoising problems, one widely-adopted approach is to minimize a regularized data-fit objective function, where the data-fit term is derived from a physical image acquisition model. Typically the regularizer is selected with two goals in mind: (a) to accurately reflect image structure, such as smoothness or sparsity, and (b) to ensure that the resulting optimization problem is convex and can be solved efficiently. The space of such regularizers in Gaussian noise settings is well studied; however, non-Gaussian noise models lead to data-fit expressions for which entirely different families of regularizers may be effective. These regularizers have received less attention in the literature because they yield non-convex optimization problems in Gaussian noise settings. This paper describes such regularizers and a simple reparameterization approach that allows image reconstruction to be accomplished using efficient convex optimization tools. The proposed approach essentially modifies the objective function to facilitate taking advantage of tools such as proximal denoising routines. We present examples of imaging denoising under exponential family (Bernoulli and Poisson) and multiplicative noise.Comment: 22 page

Sparse Linear Regression With Missing Data

This paper proposes a fast and accurate method for sparse regression in the presence of missing data. The underlying statistical model encapsulates the low-dimensional structure of the incomplete data matrix and the sparsity of the regression coefficients, and the proposed algorithm jointly learns the low-dimensional structure of the data and a linear regressor with sparse coefficients. The proposed stochastic optimization method, Sparse Linear Regression with Missing Data (SLRM), performs an alternating minimization procedure and scales well with the problem size. Large deviation inequalities shed light on the impact of the various problem-dependent parameters on the expected squared loss of the learned regressor. Extensive simulations on both synthetic and real datasets show that SLRM performs better than competing algorithms in a variety of contexts.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

Minimax Optimal Rates for Poisson Inverse Problems with Physical Constraints

This paper considers fundamental limits for solving sparse inverse problems in the presence of Poisson noise with physical constraints. Such problems arise in a variety of applications, including photon-limited imaging systems based on compressed sensing. Most prior theoretical results in compressed sensing and related inverse problems apply to idealized settings where the noise is i.i.d., and do not account for signal-dependent noise and physical sensing constraints. Prior results on Poisson compressed sensing with signal-dependent noise and physical constraints provided upper bounds on mean squared error performance for a specific class of estimators. However, it was unknown whether those bounds were tight or if other estimators could achieve significantly better performance. This work provides minimax lower bounds on mean-squared error for sparse Poisson inverse problems under physical constraints. Our lower bounds are complemented by minimax upper bounds. Our upper and lower bounds reveal that due to the interplay between the Poisson noise model, the sparsity constraint and the physical constraints: (i) the mean-squared error does not depend on the sample size $n$ other than to ensure the sensing matrix satisfies RIP-like conditions and the intensity $T$ of the input signal plays a critical role; and (ii) the mean-squared error has two distinct regimes, a low-intensity and a high-intensity regime and the transition point from the low-intensity to high-intensity regime depends on the input signal $f^*$. In the low-intensity regime the mean-squared error is independent of $T$ while in the high-intensity regime, the mean-squared error scales as $\frac{s \log p}{T}$, where $s$ is the sparsity level, $p$ is the number of pixels or parameters and $T$ is the signal intensity.Comment: 30 pages, 5 figure

Relax but stay in control: from value to algorithms for online Markov decision processes

Online learning algorithms are designed to perform in non-stationary environments, but generally there is no notion of a dynamic state to model constraints on current and future actions as a function of past actions. State-based models are common in stochastic control settings, but commonly used frameworks such as Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) assume a known stationary environment. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in combining the above two frameworks and considering an MDP setting in which the cost function is allowed to change arbitrarily after each time step. However, most of the work in this area has been algorithmic: given a problem, one would develop an algorithm almost from scratch. Moreover, the presence of the state and the assumption of an arbitrarily varying environment complicate both the theoretical analysis and the development of computationally efficient methods. This paper describes a broad extension of the ideas proposed by Rakhlin et al. to give a general framework for deriving algorithms in an MDP setting with arbitrarily changing costs. This framework leads to a unifying view of existing methods and provides a general procedure for constructing new ones. Several new methods are presented, and one of them is shown to have important advantages over a similar method developed from scratch via an online version of approximate dynamic programming.Comment: 40 pages; additional results in the convex-analytic framewor

Estimating Network Structure from Incomplete Event Data

Multivariate Bernoulli autoregressive (BAR) processes model time series of events in which the likelihood of current events is determined by the times and locations of past events. These processes can be used to model nonlinear dynamical systems corresponding to criminal activity, responses of patients to different medical treatment plans, opinion dynamics across social networks, epidemic spread, and more. Past work examines this problem under the assumption that the event data is complete, but in many cases only a fraction of events are observed. Incomplete observations pose a significant challenge in this setting because the unobserved events still govern the underlying dynamical system. In this work, we develop a novel approach to estimating the parameters of a BAR process in the presence of unobserved events via an unbiased estimator of the complete data log-likelihood function. We propose a computationally efficient estimation algorithm which approximates this estimator via Taylor series truncation and establish theoretical results for both the statistical error and optimization error of our algorithm. We further justify our approach by testing our method on both simulated data and a real data set consisting of crimes recorded by the city of Chicago

Subspace Clustering with Missing and Corrupted Data

Given full or partial information about a collection of points that lie close to a union of several subspaces, subspace clustering refers to the process of clustering the points according to their subspace and identifying the subspaces. One popular approach, sparse subspace clustering (SSC), represents each sample as a weighted combination of the other samples, with weights of minimal $\ell_1$ norm, and then uses those learned weights to cluster the samples. SSC is stable in settings where each sample is contaminated by a relatively small amount of noise. However, when there is a significant amount of additive noise, or a considerable number of entries are missing, theoretical guarantees are scarce. In this paper, we study a robust variant of SSC and establish clustering guarantees in the presence of corrupted or missing data. We give explicit bounds on amount of noise and missing data that the algorithm can tolerate, both in deterministic settings and in a random generative model. Notably, our approach provides guarantees for higher tolerance to noise and missing data than existing analyses for this method. By design, the results hold even when we do not know the locations of the missing data; e.g., as in presence-only data.Comment: 31 pages, 2 figure

Dynamical Models and Tracking Regret in Online Convex Programming

This paper describes a new online convex optimization method which incorporates a family of candidate dynamical models and establishes novel tracking regret bounds that scale with the comparator's deviation from the best dynamical model in this family. Previous online optimization methods are designed to have a total accumulated loss comparable to that of the best comparator sequence, and existing tracking or shifting regret bounds scale with the overall variation of the comparator sequence. In many practical scenarios, however, the environment is nonstationary and comparator sequences with small variation are quite weak, resulting in large losses. The proposed Dynamic Mirror Descent method, in contrast, can yield low regret relative to highly variable comparator sequences by both tracking the best dynamical model and forming predictions based on that model. This concept is demonstrated empirically in the context of sequential compressive observations of a dynamic scene and tracking a dynamic social network.Comment: To appear in ICML 201

Matrix Completion Under Monotonic Single Index Models

Most recent results in matrix completion assume that the matrix under consideration is low-rank or that the columns are in a union of low-rank subspaces. In real-world settings, however, the linear structure underlying these models is distorted by a (typically unknown) nonlinear transformation. This paper addresses the challenge of matrix completion in the face of such nonlinearities. Given a few observations of a matrix that are obtained by applying a Lipschitz, monotonic function to a low rank matrix, our task is to estimate the remaining unobserved entries. We propose a novel matrix completion method that alternates between low-rank matrix estimation and monotonic function estimation to estimate the missing matrix elements. Mean squared error bounds provide insight into how well the matrix can be estimated based on the size, rank of the matrix and properties of the nonlinear transformation. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the competitiveness of the proposed approach.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication at NIPS 201

Online Markov decision processes with Kullback-Leibler control cost

This paper considers an online (real-time) control problem that involves an agent performing a discrete-time random walk over a finite state space. The agent's action at each time step is to specify the probability distribution for the next state given the current state. Following the set-up of Todorov, the state-action cost at each time step is a sum of a state cost and a control cost given by the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the agent's next-state distribution and that determined by some fixed passive dynamics. The online aspect of the problem is due to the fact that the state cost functions are generated by a dynamic environment, and the agent learns the current state cost only after selecting an action. An explicit construction of a computationally efficient strategy with small regret (i.e., expected difference between its actual total cost and the smallest cost attainable using noncausal knowledge of the state costs) under mild regularity conditions is presented, along with a demonstration of the performance of the proposed strategy on a simulated target tracking problem. A number of new results on Markov decision processes with KL control cost are also obtained.Comment: to appear in IEEE Transactions on Automatic Contro