'The Statuette'

This is one of several contributory articles to the volume: 'Nicholas Lanier, 1588–1666. A Portrait Revealed'. It examines the statuette of Antinous which is shown within portrait, arguing that is more than a decorative feature, rather, that it carried much of the portrait's meaning. It is speculated that for early Jacobean viewers Antinous brought to mind the character of that name in Homer's Odyssey (and in derivative works) and not the Emperor Hadrian's Antinous

'The Paintings Within'

This is one of several contributory essays in the volume: 'Nicholas Lanier, 1588–1666. A Portrait Revealed'. It examines the two paintings that are internal to the portrait and suggests reasons for their inclusion and also proposes that they require ways of seeing which are unfamiliar to viewers today

Adventure Tourism and Adventure Sports Injury: the New Zealand experience

The primary aims of this study were to establish a client injury baseline for the New Zealand adventure tourism and adventure sport sector, and to examine patterns and trends in claims for injury during participation in adventure activities. Content analysis of narrative text data for compensated injuries occurring in a place for recreation and sport over a 12-month period produced over 15,000 cases involving adventure tourism and adventure sport. As found in previous studies in New Zealand, highest claims counts were observed for activities that are often undertaken independently, rather than commercially. Horse riding, tramping, surfing and mountain biking were found to have highest claims counts, while hang gliding/paragliding/parasailing and jet boating injuries had highest claims costs, suggesting greatest injury severity. Highest claims incidence was observed for horse riding, with female claimants over-represented for this activity. Younger male claimants comprised the largest proportion of adventure injuries, and falls were the most common injury mechanism

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security

Divergent clonal evolution of blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasm and chronic myelomonocytic leukemia from a shared TET2-mutated origin

From Springer Nature via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2020-11-25, rev-recd 2021-02-15, accepted 2021-03-11, registration 2021-03-12, pub-electronic 2021-04-08, online 2021-04-08, pub-print 2021-11Publication status: PublishedFunder: Oglesby Charitable TrustFunder: Pickering family donationFunder: Blood Cancer UK Clinician Scientist Fellowship (15030) Oglesby Charitable Trus

The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill

The roles of static stability and tropical – extratropical interactions in the summer interannual variability of the North Atlantic sector

Summer seasonal forecast skill in the North Atlantic sector is lower than winter skill. To identify potential controls on predictability, the sensitivity of North Atlantic baroclinicity to atmospheric drivers is quantified. Using ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data, North Atlantic storm-track baroclinicity is shown to be less sensitive to meridional temperature-gradient variability in summer. Static stability shapes the sector’s interannual variability by modulating the sensitivity of baroclinicity to variations in meridional temperature gradients and tropopause height and by modifying the baroclinicity itself. High static stability anomalies at upper levels result in more zonal extratropical cyclone tracks and higher eddy kinetic energy over the British Isles in the summertime. These static stability anomalies are not strongly related to the summer NAO; but they are correlated with the suppression of convection over the tropical Atlantic and with a poleward-shifted subtropical jet. These results suggest a non-local driver of North Atlantic variability. Furthermore, they imply that improved representations of convection over the south-eastern part of North America and the tropical Atlantic might improve summer seasonal forecast skill

Wind speed variability over the Canary Islands, 1948-2014: focusing on trend differences at the land-ocean interface and below-above the trade-wind inversion layer

This study simultaneously examines wind speed trends at the land?ocean interface, and below?above the trade-wind inversion layer in the Canary Islands and the surrounding Eastern North Atlantic Ocean: a key region for quantifying the variability of trade-winds and its response to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Two homogenized data sources are used: (1) observed wind speed from nine land-based stations (1981?2014), including one mountain weather station (Izaña) located above the trade-wind inversion layer; and (2) simulated wind speed from two atmospheric hindcasts over ocean (i.e., SeaWind I at 30 km for 1948?2014; and SeaWind II at 15 km for 1989?2014). The results revealed a widespread significant negative trend of trade-winds over ocean for 1948?2014, whereas no significant trends were detected for 1989?2014. For this recent period wind speed over land and ocean displayed the same multi-decadal variability and a distinct seasonal trend pattern with a strengthening (late spring and summer; significant in May and August) and weakening (winter?spring?autumn; significant in April and September) of trade-winds. Above the inversion layer at Izaña, we found a predominance of significant positive trends, indicating a decoupled variability and opposite wind speed trends when compared to those reported in boundary layer. The analysis of the Trade Wind Index (TWI), the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the Eastern Atlantic Index (EAI) demonstrated significant correlations with the wind speed variability, revealing that the correlation patterns of the three indices showed a spatio-temporal complementarity in shaping wind speed trends across the Eastern North Atlantic.C. A. -M. has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 703733 (STILLING project). This research was also supported by the Research Projects: Swedish BECC, MERGE, VR (2014–5320), PCIN-2015-220, CGL2014-52135-C03-01 and Red de variabilidad y cambio climático RECLIM (CGL2014-517221-REDT). M.M is indebted to the Spanish Government for funding through the “Ramón y Cajal” program and supported by Grant PORTIO (BIA2015-70644-R

The genetics of blood pressure regulation and its target organs from association studies in 342,415 individuals

To dissect the genetic architecture of blood pressure and assess effects on target-organ damage, we analyzed 128,272 SNPs from targeted and genome-wide arrays in 201,529 individuals of European ancestry and genotypes from an additional 140,886 individuals were used for validation. We identified 66 blood pressure loci, of which 17 were novel and 15 harbored multiple distinct association signals. The 66 index SNPs were enriched for cis-regulatory elements, particularly in vascular endothelial cells, consistent with a primary role in blood pressure control through modulation of vascular tone across multiple tissues. The 66 index SNPs combined in a risk score showed comparable effects in 64,421 individuals of non-European descent. The 66-SNP blood pressure risk score was significantly associated with target-organ damage in multiple tissues, with minor effects in the kidney. Our findings expand current knowledge of blood pressure pathways and highlight tissues beyond the classic renal system in blood pressure regulation