The new keynesian approach to dynamic general equilibrium modeling: models, methods, and macroeconomic policy evaluation

This chapter aims to provide a hands-on approach to New Keynesian models and their uses for macroeconomic policy analysis. It starts by reviewing the origins of the New Keynesian approach, the key model ingredients and representative models. Building blocks of current-generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are discussed in detail. These models address the famous Lucas critique by deriving behavioral equations systematically from the optimizing and forward-looking decision-making of households and firms subject to well-defined constraints. State-of-the-art methods for solving and estimating such models are reviewed and presented in examples. The chapter goes beyond the mere presentation of the most popular benchmark model by providing a framework for model comparison along with a database that includes a wide variety of macroeconomic models. Thus, it offers a convenient approach for comparing new models to available benchmarks and for investigating whether particular policy recommendations are robust to model uncertainty. Such robustness analysis is illustrated by evaluating the performance of simple monetary policy rules across a range of recently-estimated models including some with financial market imperfections and by reviewing recent comparative findings regarding the magnitude of government spending multipliers. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important objectives for on-going and future research using the New Keynesian framework

A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomic modeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of macroeconomic models. This paper proposes a comparative approach to macroeconomic policy analysis that is open to competing modeling paradigms. Macroeconomic model comparison projects have helped produce some very influential insights such as the Taylor rule. However, they have been infrequent and costly, because they require the input of many teams of researchers and multiple meetings to obtain a limited set of comparative findings. This paper provides a new approach that enables individual researchers to conduct model comparisons easily, frequently, at low cost and on a large scale. Using this approach a model archive is built that includes many well-known empirically estimated models that may be used for quantitative analysis of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. A computational platform is created that allows straightforward comparisons of models’ implications. Its application is illustrated by comparing different monetary and fiscal policies across selected models. Researchers can easily include new models in the data base and compare the effects of novel extensions to established benchmarks thereby fostering a comparative instead of insular approach to model development

Ethikmanagement in der Naturkostbranche - Eine Machbarkeitsstudie

In mehrfacher Weise hat es sich als fruchtbares und aussichtsreiches Projekt erwiesen, die Themen „Naturkostbranche“ und „Ethikmanagement“ als die beiden Untersuchungsgegenstände dieser Machbarkeitsstudie zusammenzuführen. Zunächst hat man es bei der Naturkostbranche mit einem aus unternehmensethischer Perspektive außergewöhnlichen Wirtschaftszweig zu tun. Denn er zeichnet sich – wie die Studie anschaulich belegt – in vielfältiger Weise durch einen besonderen moralisch-gesellschaftlichen Anspruch aus. Diese Ansprüche bewusster und wirkungsvoller zur praktischen Geltung zu bringen, wäre die Aufgabe eines Ethikmanagementsystems. Die aktuelle Situation der Naturkostunternehmen mit ihren Umbrüchen und Risiken, unterstreicht zudem die Sinnhaftigkeit von Ethikmanagement. Indem die konzeptionellen Vorschläge von Ethikmanagementsystemen mit ihren praktischen Instrumenten vor der spezifischen Situation der Unternehmen gespiegelt wurden, konnten auch vielfältige Anregungen für ihre erforderliche branchenbezogene Ausgestaltung gewonnen werden. Neben praktischen Erfolgsfaktoren für Ethikmanagement liefert die Studie auch Hinweise für die strategische Weiterentwicklung einer gesellschaftsorientierten Unternehmenspolitik, die über die bisherige Entwicklung in den Naturkostunternehmen hinausweist: Die dauerhafte Verankerung normativer Orientierungen in wachsenden Unternehmen, das Auf-den-Weg-bringen (auch) moralisch inspirierter Innovationen und – nicht zuletzt – der offene und konstruktive Austausch in Markt und Gesellschaft über ein ethisch verantwortungsvolles Engagement beim Geschäftsgebaren und darüber hinaus – all dies sind Herausforderungen, die gerade die Naturkostunternehmen unter Zuhilfenahme eines Ethikmanagementsystems erfolgreich zur eigenen Profilbildung nutzen könnten. Daher lautet das Fazit dieser Machbarkeitsstudie, dass die Einführung von Ethikmanagementsystemen in Naturkostunternehmen ein nicht nur machbares, sondern auch höchst vielversprechendes Projekt wäre

Bioactive compounds in blends of coffee defects originating from the harvesting

A coffee crop may consist of up to 1/5 of defective beans and finding a suitable destination for this material is economically interesting. Many coffee industries collect the selections - material containing coffee defects - and blend them with non-defective coffee fruits in specific proportions to obtain a marketable product. Studies on the composition of selections are scarce. Hydro- and liposoluble bioactive compounds were determined in five types of roasted and ground selections of coffee Arabica and in healthy Arabica and Robusta coffee species throughout an optimized HPLC-UV/Vis-MS-based method. Nicotinic acid and 4-CQA were not detected. Black and sour beans seem to increase the level of caffeine (variation from 1.3 to 2.4 g 100 g-1 of sample) in the selections. The occurrence of defects decreases the level of 5-CQA, the main representative chlorogenic acid. Trigonelline content is high in Arabica coffee, and the presence of defects does not promote a clear variation in its amount. Kahweol concentration (~74.6 to 76.9 mg g-1 of oil) was practicallythe same up the Arabica sample set; this diterpene was absent in Robusta coffee. Cafestol (variation between 12.4 and 16.4 mg g-1 of oil) is a good quality indicator. Kahweol and 16-O-methyl cafestol are species indicators, and caffeine can point out the species of coffee. PCA revealed that sour beans were associated with the presence of kahweol, while cafestol and trigonelline were correlated to the occurrence of coffee skin. The higher the proportion of black beans, the more balanced the contents of water-soluble and liposoluble compounds. Key words: PVA; Coffee harnessing; HPLC-based method; Selection of coffee; Water- and fat-soluble compounds

Identification of differentially expressed human endogenous retrovirus families in human leukemia and lymphoma cell lines and stem cells

Endogenous retroviruses (ERVs) are becoming more and more relevant in cancer research and might be potential targets. The oncogenic potential of human ERVs (HERVs) has been recognized and includes immunosuppression, cell fusion, antigenicity of viral proteins, and regulation of neighboring genes. To decipher the role of HERVs in human cancers, we used a bioinformatics approach and analyzed RNA sequencing data from the LL-100 panel, covering 22 entities of hematopoietic neoplasias including T cell, B cell and myeloid malignancies. We compared HERV expression in this panel with hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), embryonic stem cells (ESCs) and normal blood cells. RNA sequencing data were mapped against a comprehensive synthetic viral metagenome with 116 HERV sequences from 14 different HERV families. Of these, 13 HERV families and elements were differently expressed in malignant hematopoietic cells and stem cells. We found transcriptional upregulation of HERVE family in acute megakaryocytic and erythroid leukemia and of HERVFc family in multiple myeloma/plasma cell leukemia (PCL). The HERVFc member HERVFc-1 was found transcriptionally active in the multiple myeloma cell line OPM-2 and also in the Hodgkin lymphoma cell line L-428. The expression of HERVFc-1 in L-428 cells was validated by qRT-PCR. We also confirm transcriptional downregulation of ERV3 in acute megakaryocytic and erythroid leukemia, and HERVK in acute monocytic and myelocytic leukemia and a depression of HERVF in all malignant entities. Most of the higher expressed HERV families could be detected in stem cells including HERVK (HML-2), HERV-like, HERVV, HERVT, ERV9, HERVW, HERVF, HERVMER, ERV3, HERVH and HERVPABLB.Publikationsfonds ML

Effect of Lateral Sliding Calcaneus Osteotomy on Tarsal Tunnel Pressure

Background: Lateral sliding calcaneus osteotomies are common procedures to correct hindfoot varus deformities. Shifting the calcaneal tuberosity laterally (lateralization) can lead to tarsal tunnel pressure increase and tibial nerve palsy. The purpose of this cadaveric biomechanical study was to investigate the correlation of lateralization and pressure increase underneath the flexor retinaculum. Methods: The pressure in the tarsal tunnel of 12 Thiel-fixated human cadaveric lower legs was measured in different foot positions and varying degrees of calcaneal lateralization. Results: The mean pressure increased from plantarflexion (PF) to neutral position (NP) and from NP to hindfoot dorsiflexion (DF), and with increasing amounts of lateralization of the calcaneal tuberosity. The mean baseline pressure in PF was 1.5, in NP 2.2, and in DF 6.5 mmHg and increased to 8.1 in PF, 18.4 in NP, and 33.1 mmHg with 12 mm of lateralization. The release of the flexor retinaculum significantly lowered the pressure. Conclusion: Increasing pressures were found in the tarsal tunnel with increasing lateralization of the tuberosity and with both dorsiflexion and plantarflexion of the ankle. Clinical Relevance: A pre-emptive release of the flexor retinaculum for a lateralization of the calcaneal tuberosity of more than 8 mm should be considered, especially if specific patient risk factors are present. No tibial nerve palsy should be expected with 4 mm of lateralization

Neue Infrastrukturen für die Messung digitaler Mediennutzung

Infolge der voranschreitenden Digitalisierung von Medienlandschaften sieht sich die Medien- und Kommunikationswissenschaft bei der Messung von Mediennutzung mit nie gekannten Herausforderungen konfrontiert. Vor diesem Hintergrund nimmt sich der vorliegende Beitrag der Frage an, inwieweit zwei neue von GESIS betriebene Forschungssoftwares nachhaltig zur Verbesserung der Mediennutzung im digitalen Zeitalter beitragen können: WebTrack (für die Aufzeichnung browserbasierter Onlinekommunikation und deren weitergehende Verknüpfung mit Längsschnitt-Befragungsdaten) und ein AppKit (für Erhebungen von Befragungs- und/oder digitalen Verhaltensdaten auf Basis von Smartphones). Beide Forschungssoftwares eröffnen sowohl für sich genommen als auch im Verbund neue Datenerhebungspotenziale, indem sie Mediennutzung im Internet plattformübergreifend erfassen und deren individuelle Dynamiken besser abbilden können als vorherrschende (Befragungs-)Designs. Zugleich kann keine Forschungssoftware die Vielschichtigkeit von Onlinemediennutzung vollständig erfassen. Zudem handelt es sich bei der nachhaltigen Entwicklung und Bereitstellung von Forschungssoftware um eine komplexe und ressourcenintensive Daueraufgabe. Wir diskutieren die technischen und organisationalen Begleitmaßnahmen bei GESIS mit Blick auf Zuverlässigkeit, Zugänglichkeit und Langlebigkeit. Die Forschungssoftwares und die resultierenden Datenerhebungspotenziale sollen nachhaltig einem breiteren Kreis von Fachkolleg*innen zugänglich gemacht werden. Hierbei zeigt sich, dass der Betrieb verschiedener Forschungssoftwares im Rahmen einer integrierten Datenerhebungsinfrastruktur zugleich Synergien eröffnet und angepasste Maßnahmen erfordert, um der Diversität von Forschungssoftwares Rechnung tragen zu könne

Neue Infrastrukturen für die Messung digitaler Mediennutzung

Infolge der voranschreitenden Digitalisierung von Medienlandschaften sieht sich die Medien- und Kommunikationswissenschaft bei der Messung von Mediennutzung mit nie gekannten Herausforderungen konfrontiert. Vor diesem Hintergrund nimmt sich der vorliegende Beitrag der Frage an, inwieweit zwei neue von GESIS betriebene Forschungssoftwares nachhaltig zur Verbesserung der Mediennutzung im digitalen Zeitalter beitragen können: WebTrack (für die Aufzeichnung browserbasierter Onlinekommunikation und deren weitergehende Verknüpfung mit Längsschnitt-Befragungsdaten) und ein AppKit (für Erhebungen von Befragungs- und/oder digitalen Verhaltensdaten auf Basis von Smartphones). Beide Forschungssoftwares eröffnen sowohl für sich genommen als auch im Verbund neue Datenerhebungspotenziale, indem sie Mediennutzung im Internet plattformübergreifend erfassen und deren individuelle Dynamiken besser abbilden können als vorherrschende (Befragungs‑)Designs. Zugleich kann keine Forschungssoftware die Vielschichtigkeit von Onlinemediennutzung vollständig erfassen. Zudem handelt es sich bei der nachhaltigen Entwicklung und Bereitstellung von Forschungssoftware um eine komplexe und ressourcenintensive Daueraufgabe. Wir diskutieren die technischen und organisationalen Begleitmaßnahmen bei GESIS mit Blick auf Zuverlässigkeit, Zugänglichkeit und Langlebigkeit. Die Forschungssoftwares und die resultierenden Datenerhebungspotenziale sollen nachhaltig einem breiteren Kreis von Fachkolleg*innen zugänglich gemacht werden. Hierbei zeigt sich, dass der Betrieb verschiedener Forschungssoftwares im Rahmen einer integrierten Datenerhebungsinfrastruktur zugleich Synergien eröffnet und angepasste Maßnahmen erfordert, um der Diversität von Forschungssoftwares Rechnung tragen zu können.The digitalization of media landscapes has presented media and communication research with unprecedented challenges in measuring media use. Against this background, this article addresses the question of whether and how two new software tools run by GESIS - WebTrack (for recording and linking browser-based online communication with longitudinal survey data) and an AppKit (for smartphone-based collections of survey and/or digital behavioral data) - can make a sustainable contribution toward the better measurement of media use in the digital age. Both by themselves and in conjunction, the software tools open up new potentials for data collections, because they can capture media use across different online platforms and because they enable more thorough accounts of the dynamics of online media use than prevailing (survey) designs. At the same time, no software can capture each of the various facets of online media use and - importantly - the sustainable development and provision of research software is a complex and resource-intensive long-term endeavor. We address the technical and organizational measures taken by GESIS to provide scholars with sustainable access to the software tools and the associated data collection potentials. This leads to the conclusion that running an integrated data collection infrastructure both creates synergies and requires tailored measures that take into account the diversity of research software

Computational mechanisms of belief updating in relation to psychotic-like experiences

Introduction Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) may occur due to changes in weighting prior beliefs and new evidence in the belief updating process. It is still unclear whether the acquisition or integration of stable beliefs is altered, and whether such alteration depends on the level of environmental and belief precision, which reflects the associated uncertainty. This motivated us to investigate uncertainty-related dynamics of belief updating in relation to PLEs using an online study design. Methods We selected a sample (n = 300) of participants who performed a belief updating task with sudden change points and provided self-report questionnaires for PLEs. The task required participants to observe bags dropping from a hidden helicopter, infer its position, and dynamically update their belief about the helicopter's position. Participants could optimize performance by adjusting learning rates according to inferred belief uncertainty (inverse prior precision) and the probability of environmental change points. We used a normative learning model to examine the relationship between adherence to specific model parameters and PLEs. Results PLEs were linked to lower accuracy in tracking the outcome (helicopter location) (β = 0.26 ± 0.11, p = 0.018) and to a smaller increase of belief precision across observations after a change point (β = −0.003 ± 0.0007, p < 0.001). PLEs were related to slower belief updating when participants encountered large prediction errors (β = −0.03 ± 0.009, p = 0.001). Computational modeling suggested that PLEs were associated with reduced overall belief updating in response to prediction errors (βPE = −1.00 ± 0.45, p = 0.028) and reduced modulation of updating at inferred environmental change points (βCPP = −0.84 ± 0.38, p = 0.023). Discussion We conclude that PLEs are associated with altered dynamics of belief updating. These findings support the idea that the process of balancing prior belief and new evidence, as a function of environmental uncertainty, is altered in PLEs, which may contribute to the development of delusions. Specifically, slower learning after large prediction errors in people with high PLEs may result in rigid beliefs. Disregarding environmental change points may limit the flexibility to establish new beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence. The present study fosters a deeper understanding of inferential belief updating mechanisms underlying PLEs.Peer Reviewe