Making Your Nest Egg Last a Lifetime

Media attention on retirement security generally focuses on the need to save enough to enjoy a comfortable retirement. However, accumulating a nest egg is no longer the only significant challenge – the other is managing one’s nest egg in retirement. In contrast to previous birth cohorts who often received a lifetime income from a defined benefit pension plan, in today’s 401(k) world retirees must choose how to convert their accumulated savings into a monthly paycheck. One straightforward solution to the drawdown challenge is an immediate annuity, which turns a lump sum of income into a lifelong payment stream. However, for various reasons, such annuities have not proven broadly popular. Therefore, this brief examines several alternatives. All such strategies involve a trade-off between maximizing consumption and minimizing the risk of running out of money. Calculating the optimal strategy is really hard – maybe impossible. But, despite the complexity of the problem, some strategies are clearly superior to others...

The Case For Investing in Bonds During Retirement

For households seeking retirement income security, short-term deposits (such as money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and Treasury bills) seem an ideal and appropriate investment choice – particularly given the recent extraordinary turbulence in the financial markets. Over the past year, an investment in short-term deposits would have actually outperformed investments in corporate bonds and far outperformed corporate stocks. Retired households exhibit a strong preference for holding such apparently safe investments. One study found that 86 percent of households nearing retirement (ages 60-64) had bank accounts, while only 33 percent owned stocks directly and only 7 percent owned bonds directly. And the desire for short-term investments increased with age. But short-term investments, while safe, produce uncertain returns. This Issue in Brief highlights the trade-off that households must make between a guaranteed return of capital and a guaranteed return on capital – they cannot have both at the same time. Short-term deposits provide a guaranteed return of capital, but offer no guarantees as to the return the household will receive on its capital. In contrast, a portfolio of Treasury bonds of appropriate maturities provides a guaranteed return on capital, but with the return of capital guaranteed only at maturity. This brief argues that retired households seeking a secure and dependable income should prioritize return on capital over return of capital. For such households, the true risk-free asset is a portfolio of bonds and, in particular, inflation-protected bonds of appropriate maturities.

Do Health and Longevity Create Wealth?

Health, of course, is vital for productivity and quality of life, and it is understood that as society accumulates more wealth it can provide better health benefits for its people. But health as a driver of the economy is a relatively new concept within scholarly and economics studies. In recent years, many of the foremost schools of economic thought have come to recognize health as a critical driver of the economy

Retirement and the Evolution of Pension Structure

Defined benefit pension plans have become considerably less common since the early 1980s, while defined contribution plans have spread. Previous research showed that defined benefit plans, with sharp incentives encouraging retirement after a certain point, contributed to the striking postwar decline in American retirement ages. In this paper we find that the absence of age-related incentives in defined contribution plans leads workers to retire almost two years later on average, compared to workers with defined benefit plans. Thus, the evolution of pension structure can help explain recent increases in employment among people in their 60s, after decades of decline.

Determinants and Consequences of Bargaining Power in Households

A growing literature offers indirect evidence that the distribution of bargaining power within a household influences decisions made by the household. The indirect evidence links household outcomes to variables that are assumed to influence the distribution of power within the household. In this paper, we have data on whether a husband or wife in the Health and Retirement Study %u201Chas the final say%u201D when making major decisions in a household. We use this variable to analyze determinants and some consequences of bargaining power. Our analysis overcomes endogeneity problems arising in many earlier studies and constitutes a missing link confirming the importance of household bargaining models. We find that decision-making power depends on plausible individual variables and also influences important household outcomes, with the second set of results much stronger than the first set. Current and lifetime earnings have significant but moderate effects on decision-making power. On the other hand, decision-making power has important effects on financial decisions like stock market investment and total wealth accumulation and may help explain, for example, the relatively high poverty rate among widows.

Life is Cheap: Using Mortality Bonds to Hedge Aggregate Mortality Risk

Using the widely-cited Lee-Carter mortality model, we quantify aggregate mortality risk as the risk that the average annuitant lives longer than is predicted by the model, and we conclude that annuity business exposes insurance companies to substantial mortality risk. We calculate that a markup of 3.7% on an annuity premium (or else shareholders%u2019 capital equal to 3.7% of the expected present value of annuity payments) would reduce the probability of insolvency resulting from uncertain aggregate mortality trends to 5% and a markup of 5.4% would reduce the probability of insolvency to 1%. Using the same model, we find that a projection scale commonly referred to by the insurance industry underestimates aggregate mortality improvements. Annuities that are priced on that projection scale without any conservative margin appear to be substantially underpriced. Insurance companies could deal with aggregate mortality risk by transferring it to financial markets through mortality-contingent bonds, one of which has recently been offered. We calculate the returns that investors would have obtained on such bonds had they been available over a long period. Using both the Capital and the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Models, we determine the risk premium that investors would have required on such bonds. At plausible coefficients of risk aversion, annuity providers should be able to hedge aggregate mortality risk via such bonds at a very low cost.

How Much Risk is Acceptable?

The financial crisis has sparked proposals to reform the retirement income system. One component of such a system could be a new tier of retirement accounts. These accounts would augment declining Social Security replacement rates for low-wage workers and provide a buffer of security for middle- and upper-wage workers who, increasingly, will rely totally on 401(k) plans to supplement their Social Security. Designing such a new tier requires answering a number of questions: Mandatory or voluntary? Employee and/or employer contributions? Subsidies for low earners? Payments as lump sums or annuities? Tax favored or not? But the most fundamental question is whether the goal of the new tier is to provide a defined contribution account, where the retirement income will depend on market performance, or an account that can provide a certain percent of final earnings ñ that is, a target replacement rate...

How Important Are Inheritances for Baby Boomers?

Due to a changing retirement landscape, many baby boomers are likely to have insufficient resources for a secure retirement.1 One potential source that could improve their situation is inheritances. This study quantifies the aggregate amount of inheritances that baby boomers – those individuals born between 1946 and 1964 – can expect to receive over their lifetimes, and the distribution of past and prospective receipts by household type. The discussion is organized as follows. The first section quantifies the aggregate amount that boomers will receive. The second section investigates who will receive how much. The third section considers the impact of the recession on inheritances, specifically the declining values of equities and housing. The final section concludes that, while inheritances will augment the resources of aging baby boomers, they will be insufficient to ensure secure retirements.

Do Households Have a Good Sense of Their Retirement Preparedness?

The National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI) measures the percentage of working-age households who are ‘at risk’ of being financially unprepared for retirement today and in coming decades. The calculations show that even if households work to age 65 and annuitize all their financial assets, including the receipts from reverse mortgages on their homes, 44 percent will be ‘at risk’ of being unable to maintain their standard of living in retirement. An extension of the analysis to account explicitly for health care costs in retirement raises the share of ‘at risk’ households from 44 percent to 61 percent. This brief examines whether households have a good sense of their own retirement preparedness — do their retirement expectations match the reality that they face? Do people ‘at risk’ know that they are ‘at risk?’ The first section summarizes the NRRI and compares households’ self-assessed preparedness to the objective measure provided by the NRRI. The second section describes the characteristics of households associated with being too optimistic or too pessimistic. The last section of this brief introduces health care costs into the analysis.