Late Wisconsin glaciation of Hadwen and Summer islands, Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, NWT, Canada

The exact timing of the last major advance of the Laurentide Ice Sheet onto the Beaufort Sea coastlands of western Arctic Canada is unclear but significant to our understanding of landscape change and palaeo-ice stream chronology. Optical stimulated luminescence dating of preglacial and postglacial aeolian sand from Hadwen and Summer islands, in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, indicates that glaciation took place between about 17.5 and 15 ka, and most likely between 16.6 and 15.9 ka, coinciding with Heinrich event 1. At this time the Mackenzie Trough palaeo-ice stream advanced into a cold-climate sandy desert, interrupting aeolian activity

Estimation of Sustainable Mortality Thresholds for Grizzly Bears in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem

Habitat management and limits on mortality have led to population growth and sizable range expansion for the federally-listed grizzly bear population in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), Montana.  Human-caused mortality has coincidentally increased, but it is not clear what level of human-caused mortality would cause the population to decline. A record of annual documented mortalities of independent (?2 years old) bears is maintained for the NCDE, from which an estimate of the total number of mortalities is generated.  Our goal was to estimate sustainable survival rates for independent bears and to develop realistic thresholds for sustainable mortality, which could be applied to these annual estimates.  We estimated survival and recruitment rates using 662 bear-years of telemetry data, performed stochastic modeling, and estimated the annual growth rate as 1.023 and annual population size as 765–960 during 2004–2014.  We then evaluated minimum independent survival rates consistent with a stable to increasing trend, and integrated these sustainable rates with model-estimated population size and mean estimates of total annual independent bear mortality to establish mortality thresholds.  During 2004–2014, estimates of total annual mortality were highly variable, but averaged 13.8 for females and 16.4 for males.  For females and males, respectively, these estimates accounted for only 69% (range 28–168%) and 62% (28–121%) of sustainable mortality thresholds, indicating that approximately 6 and 10 additional annual mortalities could have been sustained without the population declining.  Application and periodic reevaluation of mortality thresholds will help managers reach or maintain a target population size for grizzly bears in the NCDE

Reasons for and consequences of missed appointments in general practice in the UK: questionnaire survey and prospective review of medical records

Background Missed appointments are a common occurrence in primary care in the UK, yet little is known about the reasons for them, or the consequences of missing an appointment. This paper aims to determine the reasons for missed appointments and whether patients who miss an appointment subsequently consult their general practitioner (GP). Secondary aims are to compare psychological morbidity, and the previous appointments with GPs between subjects and a comparison group. Methods Postal questionnaire survey and prospective medical notes review of adult patients missing an appointment and the comparison group who attended appointments over a three week period in seven general practices in West Yorkshire. Results Of the 386 who missed appointments 122 (32%) responded. Of the 386 in the comparison group 223 (58%) responded, resulting in 23 case-control matched pairs with complete data collection. Over 40% of individuals who missed an appointment and participated said that they forgot the appointment and a quarter said that they tried very hard to cancel the appointment or that it was at an inconvenient time. A fifth reported family commitments or being too ill to attend. Over 90% of the patients who missed an appointment subsequently consulted within three months and of these nearly 60% consulted for the stated problem that was going to be presented in the missed consultation. The odds of missing an appointment decreased with increasing age and were greater among those who had missed at least one appointment in the previous 12 months. However, estimates for comparisons between those who missed appointments and the comparison group were imprecise due to the low response rate. Conclusion Patients who miss appointments tend to cite practice factors and their own forgetfulness as the main reasons for doing so, and most attend within three months of a missed appointment. This study highlights a number of implications for future research. More work needs to be done to engage people who miss appointments into research in a meaningful way

The beginning of time? Evidence for catastrophic drought in Baringo in the early nineteenth century

New developments in the collection of palaeo-data over the past two decades have transformed our understanding of climate and environmental history in eastern Africa. This article utilises instrumental and proxy evidence of historical lake-level fluctuations from Baringo and Bogoria, along with other Rift Valley lakes, to document the timing and magnitude of hydroclimate variability at decadal to century time scales since 1750. These data allow us to construct a record of past climate variation not only for the Baringo basin proper, but also across a sizable portion of central and northern Kenya. This record is then set alongside historical evidence, from oral histories gathered amongst the peoples of northern Kenya and the Rift Valley and from contemporary observations recorded by travellers through the region, to offer a reinterpretation of human activity and its relationship to environmental history in the nineteenth century. The results reveal strong evidence of a catastrophic drought in the early nineteenth century, the effects of which radically alters our historical understanding of the character of settlement, mobility and identity within the Baringo–Bogoria basin

How inclusive, user-centered design research can improve psychological therapies for psychosis: Development of SlowMo

Real-world implementation of psychological interventions for psychosis is poor. Barriers include therapy being insufficiently usable and useful for a diverse range of people. User-centered, inclusive design approaches could improve the usability of therapy, which may increase uptake, adherence, and effectiveness. This study aimed to optimize the usability of an existing psychological intervention, Thinking Well, which targets reasoning processes in paranoia using a basic digital interface. We conducted inclusive, user-centered design research characterized by purposive sampling of extreme users from the margins of groups, ethnographic investigation of the problem context, and iterative prototyping of solutions. The UK Design Council's double diamond method was used. This consisted of 4 phases: discover, including a case series of Thinking Well, stakeholder interviews, desk research, user profiling, system mapping, and a mood board; define, consisting of workshops to synthesize findings and generate the design brief; develop, involving concept workshops and prototype testing; and deliver, in which the final minimal viable product was storyboarded and iteratively coded. Consistent with our previous work, the Thinking Well case series showed medium to large effects on paranoia and well-being and small effects on reasoning. These were maintained at follow-up despite some participants reporting difficulties with the therapy interface. Insights from the discover phase confirmed that usability was challenged by information complexity and poor accessibility. Participants were generally positive about the potential of technology to be enjoyable, help manage paranoia, and provide tailored interpersonal support from therapists and peers, although they reported privacy and security concerns. The define phase highlighted that the therapy redesign should support monitoring, simplify information processing, enhance enjoyment and trust, promote personalization and normalization, and offer flexible interpersonal support. During the develop phase over 60 concepts were created, with 2 key concepts of thoughts visualized as bubbles and therapy as a journey selected for storyboarding. The output of the deliver phase was a minimal viable product of an innovative digital therapy, SlowMo. SlowMo works by helping people to notice their worries and fast thinking habits, and encourages them to slow down for a moment to find ways of feeling safer. A Web app supports the delivery of 8 face-to-face sessions, which are synchronized to a native mobile app. SlowMo makes use of personalization, ambient information, and visual metaphors to tailor the appeal, engagement, and memorability of therapy to a diversity of needs. Feasibility testing has been promising, and the efficacy of SlowMo therapy is now being tested in a multicentered randomized controlled trial. The study demonstrates that developments in psychological theory and techniques can be enhanced by improving the usability of the therapy interface to optimize its impact in daily life. [Abstract copyright: ©Amy Hardy, Anna Wojdecka, Jonathan West, Ed Matthews, Christopher Golby, Thomas Ward, Natalie D Lopez, Daniel Freeman, Helen Waller, Elizabeth Kuipers, Paul Bebbington, David Fowler, Richard Emsley, Graham Dunn, Philippa Garety. Originally published in JMIR Mental Health (http://mental.jmir.org), 05.12.2018.

Novice drivers’ individual trajectories of driver behavior over the first three years of driving

Identifying the changes in driving behavior that underlie the decrease in crash risk over the first few months of driving is key to efforts to reduce injury and fatality risk in novice drivers. This study represented a secondary data analysis of 1148 drivers who participated in the UK Cohort II study. The Driver Behavior Questionnaire was completed at 6 months and 1, 2 and 3 years after licensure. Linear latent growth models indicated significant increases across development in all four dimensions of aberrant driving behavior under scrutiny: aggressive violations, ordinary violations, errors and slips. Unconditional and conditional latent growth class analyses showed that the observed heterogeneity in individual trajectories was explained by the presence of multiple homogeneous groups of drivers, each exhibiting specific trajectories of aberrant driver behavior. Initial levels of aberrant driver behavior were important in identifying sub-groups of drivers. All classes showed positive slopes; there was no evidence of a group of drivers whose aberrant behavior decreased over time that might explain the decrease in crash involvement observed over this period. Male gender and younger age predicted membership of trajectories with higher levels of aberrant behavior. These findings highlight the importance of early intervention for improving road safety. We discuss the implications of our findings for understanding the behavioral underpinnings of the decrease in crash involvement observed in the early months of driving

SlowMo, a digital therapy targeting reasoning in paranoia, versus treatment as usual in the treatment of people who fear harm from others: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Paranoia is one of the most common symptoms of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, and is associated with significant distress and disruption to the person’s life. Developing more effective and accessible psychological interventions for paranoia is a clinical priority. Our research team has approached this challenge in two main ways: firstly, by adopting an interventionist causal approach to increase effectiveness and secondly, by incorporating user-centred inclusive design methods to enhance accessibility and usability. Our resultant new digital intervention, SlowMo, intensively targets a reasoning style associated with paranoia, fast thinking, characterised by jumping to conclusions and belief inflexibility. It consists of an easy-to-use, enjoyable and memorable digital interface. An interactive web-based app facilitates delivery of face-to-face meetings which is then synchronised with an innovative mobile app for use in daily life. Methods/Design: We aim to test the clinical efficacy of SlowMo over 24 weeks to determine the mechanisms through which it reduces paranoia, and to identify participant characteristics that moderate its effectiveness. In a parallel-group randomised controlled trial, with 1:1 allocation, 360 participants with distressing persecutory beliefs will be independently randomised to receive either the SlowMo intervention added to treatment as usual (TAU) or TAU, using randomly varying permuted blocks, stratified by paranoia severity and site. Research workers will be blind to therapy allocation. The primary outcome is paranoia severity over 24 weeks; our hypothesised mechanism of change is reasoning; moderators include negative symptoms and working memory; and secondary outcomes include wellbeing, quality of life, and service use. The accessibility, usability and acceptability of the digital platform will be assessed. Discussion: SlowMo has been developed as the first blended digital therapy to target fears of harm from others through an inclusive design approach. In addition to testing its efficacy, this trial will add to our understanding of psychological mechanisms in paranoia. The study will examine the usability and adherence of a novel digital therapy, including an app for self-management, in a large sample of people affected by severe mental health difficulties

Spatial-temporal analysis of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in the NCI-SEER NHL case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Exploring spatial-temporal patterns of disease incidence through cluster analysis identifies areas of significantly elevated or decreased risk, providing potential clues about disease risk factors. Little is known about the etiology of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), or the latency period that might be relevant for environmental exposures, and there are no published spatial-temporal cluster studies of NHL.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a population-based case-control study of NHL in four National Cancer Institute (NCI)-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) centers: Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles, and Seattle during 1998-2000. Using 20-year residential histories, we used generalized additive models adjusted for known risk factors to model spatially the probability that an individual had NHL and to identify clusters of elevated or decreased NHL risk. We evaluated models at five different time periods to explore the presence of clusters in a time frame of etiologic relevance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The best model fit was for residential locations 20 years prior to diagnosis in Detroit, Iowa, and Los Angeles. We found statistically significant areas of elevated risk of NHL in three of the four study areas (Detroit, Iowa, and Los Angeles) at a lag time of 20 years. The two areas of significantly elevated risk in the Los Angeles study area were detected only at a time lag of 20 years. Clusters in Detroit and Iowa were detected at several time points.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found significant spatial clusters of NHL after allowing for disease latency and residential mobility. Our results show the importance of evaluating residential histories when studying spatial patterns of cancer.</p

“Further education, future prosperity? The Implications of Marketisation on Further Education Working Practices”

© 2017 Association for Research in Post-Compulsory Education (ARPCE). This paper examines how the marketised funding system of vocational further education is affecting lecturers’ working practices and professional integrity. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a number of lecturing staff and managers within two vocational areas at an English FE college to examine the implications of working under the current funding regime. The conclusions drawn reflect the complexity of working within FE showing how lecturers are frequently placed in a professional dilemma between securing future funding (by ensuring high levels of retention and achievement) and compromising their professional integrity and working practices in order to do so. A key finding here was the inherent tension between professional integrity and funding requirements apparently directly opposing ‘good’ practice. This means FE professionals experience what Whitehead called ‘a living contradiction’ in their working lives, increasing stress levels and diminishing their sense of professionalism