Whom should we call? Data policy for immediate impactors announcements

After the PR disaster of 1997 XF11 (March 1998), we started a crash research program on impact predictions. The difficulty was the chaotic motion of Earth-crossing asteroids (orbit uncertainty increases exponentially with time); it can be solved by replacing a real asteroid with a swarm of Virtual Asteroids. In 1999 we introduced Geometric Sampling to replace Monte-Carlo methods (see Milani, Chesley & Valsecchi, A&A 346, 1999). In November 1999 the first Impact Monitoring system CLOMON was operational. From 2002 the second generation systems CLOMON2 at Pisa and SENTRY at JPL are operational: critical cases are scanned for possible impacts in the next 90–100 years

On the possible values of the orbit distance between a near-Earth asteroid and the Earth

We consider all the possible trajectories of a near-Earth asteroid (NEA), corresponding to the whole set of heliocentric orbital elements with perihelion distance q ≤ 1.3 au and eccentricity e ≤ 1 (NEA class). For these hypothetical trajectories, we study the range of the values of the distance from the trajectory of the Earth (assumed on a circular orbit) as a function of selected orbital elements of the asteroid. The results of this geometric approach are useful to explain some aspects of the orbital distribution of the known NEAs. We also show that the maximal orbit distance between an object in the NEA class and the Earth is attained by a parabolic orbit, with apsidal line orthogonal to the ecliptic plane. It turns out that the threshold value of q for the NEA class (qmax = 1.3 au) is very close to a critical value, below which the above result is not valid

Periodic Orbits Close to That of the Moon in Hill's Problem

In the framework of the restricted, circular, 3-dimensional 3-body problem Sun-Earth-Moon, Valsecchi et al. (1993) found a set of 8 periodic orbits, with duration equal to that of the Saros cycle, and differing only for the initial phases, in which the motion of the massless Moon follows closely that of the real Moon. Of these, only 4 are actually independent, the other 4 being obtainable by symmetry about the plane of the ecliptic. In this paper the problem is treated in the framework of the 3-dimensional Hill's problem. It is shown that also in this problem there are 8 periodic orbits of duration equal to that of the Saros cycle, and that in these periodic orbits the motion of the Moon is very close to that of the real Moon. Moreover, as a consequence of the additional symmetry of Hill's problem about the $y$-axis, only 2 of the 8 periodic orbits are independent, the other ones being obtainable by exploiting the symmetries of the problem

Efficiency of a wide-area survey in achieving short- and long-term warning for small impactors

We consider a network of telescopes capable of scanning all the observable sky each night and targeting Near-Earth objects (NEOs) in the size range of the Tunguska-like asteroids, from 160 m down to 10 m. We measure the performance of this telescope network in terms of the time needed to discover at least 50% of the impactors in the considered population with a warning time large enough to undertake proper mitigation actions. The warning times are described by a trimodal distribution and the telescope network has a 50% probability of discovering an impactor of the Tunguska class with at least one week of advance already in the first 10 yr of operations of the survey. These results suggest that the studied survey would be a significant addition to the current NEO discovery efforts

The dynamical structure of the MEO region: long-term stability, chaos, and transport

It has long been suspected that the Global Navigation Satellite Systems exist in a background of complex resonances and chaotic motion; yet, the precise dynamical character of these phenomena remains elusive. Recent studies have shown that the occurrence and nature of the resonances driving these dynamics depend chiefly on the frequencies of nodal and apsidal precession and the rate of regression of the Moon's nodes. Woven throughout the inclination and eccentricity phase space is an exceedingly complicated web-like structure of lunisolar secular resonances, which become particularly dense near the inclinations of the navigation satellite orbits. A clear picture of the physical significance of these resonances is of considerable practical interest for the design of disposal strategies for the four constellations. Here we present analytical and semi-analytical models that accurately reflect the true nature of the resonant interactions, and trace the topological organization of the manifolds on which the chaotic motions take place. We present an atlas of FLI stability maps, showing the extent of the chaotic regions of the phase space, computed through a hierarchy of more realistic, and more complicated, models, and compare the chaotic zones in these charts with the analytical estimation of the width of the chaotic layers from the heuristic Chirikov resonance-overlap criterion. As the semi-major axis of the satellite is receding, we observe a transition from stable Nekhoroshev-like structures at three Earth radii, where regular orbits dominate, to a Chirikov regime where resonances overlap at five Earth radii. From a numerical estimation of the Lyapunov times, we find that many of the inclined, nearly circular orbits of the navigation satellites are strongly chaotic and that their dynamics are unpredictable on decadal timescales.Comment: Submitted to Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy. Comments are greatly appreciated. 28 pages, 15 figure

Long-term impact risk for (101955) 1999 RQ36

The potentially hazardous asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36 has the possibility of collision with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities accumulate to a total impact probability of approximately 10E-3, with a pair of closely related routes to impact in 2182 comprising more than half of the total. The analysis of impact possibilities so far in the future is strongly dependent on the action of the Yarkovsky effect, which raises new challenges in the careful assessment of longer term impact hazards. Even for asteroids with very precisely determined orbits, a future close approach to Earth can scatter the possible trajectories to the point that the problem becomes like that of a newly discovered asteroid with a weakly determined orbit. If the scattering takes place late enough so that the target plane uncertainty is dominated by Yarkovsky accelerations then the thermal properties of the asteroid,which are typically unknown, play a major role in the impact assessment. In contrast, if the strong planetary interaction takes place sooner, while the Yarkovsky dispersion is still relatively small compared to that derived from the measurements, then precise modeling of the nongravitational acceleration may be unnecessary.Comment: Reviewed figures and some text change

Disaster Risks Research and Assessment to Promote Risk Reduction and Management

Natural hazard events lead to disasters when the events interact with exposed and vulnerable physical and social systems. Despite significant progress in scientific understanding of physical phenomena leading to natural hazards as well as of vulnerability and exposure, disaster losses due to natural events do not show a tendency to decrease. This tendency is associated with many factors including increase in populations and assets at risk as well as in frequency and/or magnitude of natural events, especially those related to hydro-meteorological and climatic hazards. But essentially disaster losses increase because some of the elements of the multidimensional dynamic disaster risk system are not accounted for risk assessments. A comprehensive integrated system analysis and periodic assessment of disaster risks at any scale, from local to global, based on knowledge and data/information accumulated so far, are essential scientific tools that can assist in recognition and reduction of disaster risks. This paper reviews and synthesizes the knowledge of natural hazards, vulnerabilities, and disaster risks and aims to highlight potential contributions of science to disaster risk reduction (DRR) in order to provide policy-makers with the knowledge necessary to assist disaster risk mitigation and disaster risk management (DRM)