Aiuto esterno e strategia di sviluppo: quali errori hanno impedito il raggiungimento degli obiettivi prefissati in termini di sviluppo e riduzione della povertà?

Negli anni ’90 si è verificato un progressivo trend discendentedell’assistenza ufficiale allo sviluppo, conseguenza di una sorta di “affaticamento” da aiuto diffusasi tra i paesi del Nord1. Il dibattito sull’efficacia degli aiuti ha registrato l’intervento di posizioni molto diverse tra loro, mentre le ricerche econometriche utilizzate hanno portato a risultati contradditori; nonostante ciò, l’evidenza dell’analisi cross country mostra che in media i successi hanno pesato più dei fallimenti, quindi si può affermare che l’aiuto ha funzionato bene. Come si spiega allora la drammatica situazione che metà della popolazione mondiale sta vivendo? Come mai il bilancio di vent’anni di aggiustamento è così negativo, e la comunità internazionale non è in grado di mantenere gli obiettivi fissati all’interno della strategia di riduzione della povertà decisa nelle sedi istituzionali? Attraverso l’analisi dei dati e dei documenti di valutazione delle istituzioni internazionali, si giunge alla conclusione che è mancato un reale impegno da parte dei paesi del Nord e della comunità internazionale ad affrontare il fenomeno della povertà mondiale, nonché la disponibilità all’erogazione delle risorse necessarie, mentre le strategie elaborate sono state fortemente insufficienti e inadeguate rispetto all’obiettivo a lungo termine di sradicamento della povertà. La posizione espressa dal Genoa Non Governmental Iniziative è molto netta: è necessario affrontare in modo urgente il problema con una strategia che consideri prioritario l’obiettivo di medio termine di riduzione della povertà, definita ed implementata dai paesi del Sud con l’aiuto e la collaborazione reale dei paesi del Nord, ma soprattutto è fondamentale rivedere il fenomeno della globalizzazione mondiale, strettamente legato con quello della povertà

Disease Environment and Civil Conflicts

This paper tests the hypothesis that a high and persistent exposure to infectious diseases increases the likelihood of civil conflicts. Diseases that are difficult to prevent and treat may reduce the opportunity costs of violent activities, both directly and indirectly. The analysis exploits new data on the number of multi-host vector-transmitted infectious diseases that are endemic in each country. As consequence of their specific features, the presence of these pathogens in a country is closely related to geo-climatological conditions and exogenous to civil conflict. The findings document that a larger disease richness is a statistically robust and quantitatively relevant determinant of civil conflicts for the period 1960-2004. Exploiting within country variation, the findings also document that interactions between climatological shocks in terms of droughts and the disease environment have a significant effect on the risk of civil wars. The results are robust to different specifications, data sets and estimation methods, and suggest that the persistent exposure to a more unfavorable environment in terms of disease richness is an important determinant of the incidence of civil conflict. The results also suggest the potential relevance of a channel linking geography to economic development that has not been investigated in the literature.disease environment, civil conflict, multi-host vector-transmitted pathogens, civil war

Disease environment and civil conflicts

This paper tests the hypothesis that a high and persistent exposure to infectious diseases increases the likelihood of civil conflicts. Diseases that are difficult to prevent and treat may reduce the opportunity costs of violent activities, both directly and indirectly. The analysis exploits new data on the number of multi-host vector-transmitted infectious diseases that are endemic in each country. As consequence of their specific features, the presence of these pathogens in a country is closely related to geo-climatological conditions and exogenous to civil conflict. The findings document that a larger disease richness is a statistically robust and quantitatively relevant determinant of civil conflicts for the period 1960-2004. Exploiting within country variation, the findings also document that interactions between climatological shocks in terms of droughts and the disease environment have a significant effect on the risk of civil wars. The results are robust to different specifications, data sets and estimation methods, and suggest that the persistent exposure to a more unfavorable environment in terms of disease richness is an important determinant of the incidence of civil conflict. The results also suggest the potential relevance of a channel linking geography to economic development that has not been investigated in the literature

Malaria Risk and Civil Violence

Using high-resolution data from Africa over the period 1998-2012, this paper investigates the hypothesis that a higher exposure to malaria increases the incidence of civil violence. The analysis uses panel data at the 1° grid cell level at monthly frequency. The econometric identification exploits exogenous monthly within-grid-cell variation in weather conditions that are particularly suitable for malaria transmission. The analysis compares the effect across cells with different malaria exposure, which affects the resistance and immunity of the population to malaria outbreaks. The results document a robust effect of the occurrence of suitable conditions for malaria on civil violence. The effect is highest in areas with low levels of immunities to malaria. Malaria shocks mostly affect unorganized violence in terms of riots, protests, and confrontations between militias and civilians, rather than geo-strategic violence, and the effect spikes during short, labor-intensive harvesting periods of staple crops that are particularly important for the subsistence of the population. The paper ends with an evaluation of anti-malaria interventions

Long-term exposure to malaria and violence in Africa

This paper explores the existence of a link between the long-term exposure to malaria and the frequency of civil conflicts in Africa. Using geographically disaggregated data at the level of grid cells the analysis provides empirical evidence for a humpshaped relationship between the long-run stability and force of malaria transmission and the incidence of civil violence. In line with epidemiological predictions about the acquired immunity to malaria, cells that are characterized by intermediate malaria exposure exhibit higher conflict incidence than cells with very low or very high malaria exposure. We explore the role of the expansion of anti-malaria policies after 2005 in the context of the Roll Back Malaria programme. The results provide suggestive evidence that anti-malaria interventions reduced the incidence of civil violence, but only in areas where adults lack acquired immunity to malaria

A different immunologic profile characterizes patients with HER-2-overexpressing and HER-2-negative locally advanced breast cancer: implications for immune-based therapies

INTRODUCTION: The clinical efficacy of trastuzumab and taxanes is at least partly related to their ability to mediate or promote antitumor immune responses. On these grounds, a careful analysis of basal immune profile may be capital to dissect the heterogeneity of clinical responses to these drugs in patients with locally advanced breast cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy. METHODS: Blood samples were collected from 61 locally advanced breast cancers (36 HER2- and 25 HER2+) at diagnosis and from 23 healthy women. Immunophenotypic profiling of circulating and intratumor immune cells, including regulatory T (Treg) cells, was assessed by flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry, respectively. Serum levels of 10 different cytokines were assessed by multiplex immunoassays. CD8+ T cell responses to multiple tumor-associated antigens (TAA) were evaluated by IFN-γ-enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISPOT). The Student's t test for two tailed distributions and the Wilcoxon two-sample test were used for the statistical analysis of the data. RESULTS: The proportion of circulating immune effectors was similar in HER2+ patients and healthy donors, whereas higher percentages of natural killer and Treg cells and a lower CD4+/CD8+ T cell ratio (with a prevalence of naïve and central memory CD8+ T cells) were observed in HER2- cases. Higher numbers of circulating CD8+ T cells specific for several HLA-A*0201-restricted TAA-derived peptides were observed in HER2+ cases, together with a higher prevalence of intratumor CD8+ T cells. Serum cytokine profile of HER2+ patients was similar to that of controls, whereas HER2- cases showed significantly lower cytokine amounts compared to healthy women (IL-2, IL-8, IL-6) and HER2+ cases (IL-2, IL-1β, IL-8, IL-6, IL-10). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to HER2- cases, patients with HER2-overexpressing locally advanced breast cancer show a more limited tumor-related immune suppression. This may account for the clinical benefit achieved in this subset of patients with the use of drugs acting through, but also promoting, immune-mediated effects

The gender wage gap in developing and transition countries

The aim of my dissertation is to study the gender wage gap with a specific focus on developing and transition countries. In the first chapter I present the main existing theories proposed to analyse the gender wage gap and I review the empirical literature on the gender wage gap in developing and transition countries and its main findings. Then, I discuss the overall empirical issues related to the estimation of the gender wage gap and the issues specific to developing and transition countries. The second chapter is an empirical analysis of the gender wage gap in a developing countries, the Union of Comoros, using data from the multidimensional household budget survey “Enquete integrale auprès des ménages” (EIM) run in 2004. The interest of my work is to provide a benchmark analysis for further studies on the situation of women in the Comorian labour market and to contribute to the literature on gender wage gap in Africa by making available more information on the dynamics and mechanism of the gender wage gap, given the limited interest on the topic in this area of the world. The third chapter is an applied analysis of the gender wage gap in a transition country, Poland, using data from the Labour Force Survey (LSF) collected for the years 1994 and 2004. I provide a detailed examination of how gender earning differentials have changed over the period starting from 1994 to a more advanced transition phase in 2004, when market elements have become much more important in the functioning of the Polish economy than in the earlier phase. The main contribution of my dissertation is the application of the econometrical methodology that I describe in the beginning of the second chapter. First, I run a preliminary OLS and quantile regression analysis to estimate and describe the raw and conditional wage gaps along the distribution. Second, I estimate quantile regressions separately for males and females, in order to allow for different rewards to characteristics. Third, I proceed to decompose the raw wage gap estimated at the mean through the Oaxaca-Blinder (1973) procedure. In the second chapter I run a two-steps Heckman procedure by estimating a model of participation in the labour market which shows a significant selection bias for females. Forth, I apply the Machado-Mata (2005) techniques to extend the decomposition analysis at all points of the distribution. In Poland I can also implement the Juhn, Murphy and Pierce (1991) decomposition over the period 1994-2004, to account for effects to the pay gap due to changes in overall wage dispersion beyond Oaxaca’s standard decomposition

Pathogens, Weather Shocks, and Civil Conflicts

This paper documents a statistically strong and quantitatively relevant effect of high exposure to infectious diseases on the risk of civil conflicts. The analysis exploits data on the presence and endemicity of multi-host vector-transmitted pathogens in a country, which is closely related to geo-climatic conditions due to the specific features of these pathogens. Exploiting withincountry variation over time shows that this effect of pathogen exposure is significantly amplified by weather shocks. The results indicate health shocks and the outbreak of epidemics as a potential channel, while we find no evidence that the effect works through alternative channels like income, population dynamics, or institutions