Unemployment Conundrum in Iran

This paper examines the major causes of Iran’s unemployment conundrum using a simultaneous-equation model and annual time series data from 1968 to 2000. It is found that the rate of unemployment responds positively to output gap and increasing economic uncertainty and negatively to the higher growth rates of real investment and inflation, supporting the view that there exists a degree of trade-off between inflation and unemployment. However, since persistent and soaring inflation rates eventually lead to the chronic depreciation of the domestic currency and rising economic instability, it will be irrational to exploit this trade-off to fight against unemployment, particularly in the post-1979 revolution. Iran possesses one of the youngest populations in the world with approximately 40 per cent of its population less than 15 years. It is thus argued that if major tax and constitutional reforms are not undertaken, unemployment will continue to rise, depicting a sombre future for the next working age generation.Unemployment, Iran

An Empirical Analysis of Australian Labour Productivity

This study presents a model capturing sources of Australian aggregate labour productivity using annual time series data from 1970 to 2001. Labour productivity, or real output per hour worked, in this model is determined by real net capital stock in information technology and telecommunications (ITT), real net capital stock in the non-ITT sector, trade openness, human capital, the wage rate, international competitiveness, and the union membership rate. Given the lack of long and consistent time series data, multivariate cointegration techniques are inappropriate as the cointegration results will be sensitive to the lag length, the inclusion or exclusion of the intercept term or a trend in the cointegration equation and/or the vector autoregression (VAR) specification. Therefore, the Engle-Granger representation theorem and the Hausman weak exogeneity test have been employed to determine the short and long-term drivers of Australian productivity. Empirical estimates indicate that, in the long-term, policies aimed at promoting various types of investment, trade openness, international competitiveness, and the use of wage as an stimulant in a decentralised wage negotiation system, will improve labour productivity. In the short term, all the above variables except for human capital and labour reforms, which both need more time to evolve, determine productivity performance.

What Determines the Demand for Money in the Asian-Pacific Countries? An Empirical Panel Investigation

This paper examines the long- and short-run determinants of the demand for money in six countries in the Asian-Pacific region using panel data (1975-2002). Various country-specific coefficients are allowed to capture inter-country heterogeneities. Consistent with theoretical postulates, it is found that (a) the demand for money in the long-run positively responds to real income and inversely to the interest rate spread, inflation, the real effective exchange rate, and the US real interest rate; (b) the long-run income elasticity is greater than unity; and (c) both the currency substitution and capital mobility hypotheses hold only in the long run.Demand for Money; Money and Interest Rate Spread; Panel Data

Modelling Demand for Broad Money in Australia

The existence of a stable demand for money is very important for the conduct of monetary policy. It is argued that previous work on the demand for money in Australia has not been very satisfactory in a number of ways. This paper examines the long- and short-run determinants of the demand for broad money employing the Johansen cointegration technique and a short-run dynamic model. Using quarterly data for the period 1976:3-2002:2, this paper finds, inter alia, that the demand for broad money is cointegrated with real income, the rate of return on 10-year Treasury bonds, the cash rate and the rate of inflation.Demand for Money, Money and Interest Rates, Cointegration, Australia.

How Many Jobs Were Lost With the Collapse of Ansett?

The objective of this paper is to determine the adverse impact of the collapse of Ansett on employment using the latest Australian input-output table. The indirect contribution of the collapse of Ansett to the creation of unemployment in various industries is quantified by adopting the “shut-down of industry” approach. Ansett operated within the air and space transport industry which possesses strong backward and forward linkages. It is found that due to sectoral multiplier and flow-on effects each job lost in such an important sector leads to a loss of approximately 3 extra jobs in the economy as a whole. The empirical results are broadly consistent with previous studies. Overall, the Ansett collapse brought about an indirect loss of 54880 jobs in 105 sectors of the Australian economy. Losses were particularly marked in the following industries which were the fastest growing industries in terms of employment during the 1985-2000 period: Retail trade; Business services; Education; Health services; Accommodation, cafes and restaurants.

Labour Productivity in Iran

This study presents a model capturing sources of Iranian aggregate labour productivity using annual time series data from 1960 to 2002. Labour productivity in this model is determined by real net capital stock, information technology and telecommunications (ITT) and trade openness. Empirical estimates indicate that policies aimed at promoting various types of investment and trade openness, which generates technology spillovers, can improve labour productivity. A substantial rise in productivity can not be achieved unless the economy increases its stock of capital in both ITT and non-ITT sectors, and industrial protectionist policies are reversed.Labour productivity, Economic growth, Iran

Identifying Australia’s High Employment Generating Industries

Using the latest Australian input-output (IO) table, this paper aims to identify the high employment generating industries. First, the direct and indirect contribution of the tradeable industries to employment are quantified by adopting the “loss of the industry” or “Shut-down of industry” approach. Second, the sectoral employment elasticities are calculated to determine the leading employment generating sectors. The empirical analysis and rankings undertaken in this study shed some light on the sectoral potentials in relation to the creation of jobs in the economy. Further, this study provides some inputs for setting the effective rate of assistance for import competing industries.

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATE IN IRAN

The Iranian rial has been depreciated on average about 12 per cent per annum during the last four decades. This paper examines the long- and short-run determinants of the black market exchange rate employing the cointegration techniques and the annual time series data from 1960 to 2000. Broadly consistent with previous studies, it is found that the black market exchange rate is cointegrated with inflation, real GDP and the import price index. However, in the short run only high inflation and a meagre real growth in GDP are responsible for the depreciation of Iranian currency.

Which Industries Create More Employment? A Cross-Country Analysis

The objective of this paper is to identify high employment industries in Australia, Japan and the U.S using input-output (IO) analysis. It is found that (1) the high and low employment generating industries in 1980 and/or 1990 are almost the same as those in 1997. Thus on a relative basis, there is no evidence that high employment generating industries have changed since 1980; and (2) the high and low employment generating industries are very similar across these three countries. Four of the consistently high employment generating industries in these countries are Food, Beverage and Tobacco; Chemicals, Petroleum, Coal, Rubber & Non-Metallic Minerals; Basic Metals/Fabricated Products; and Electricity, Gas and Water, with the first three industries being part of manufacturing.input-output analysis, Employment, OECD

The Demand for Current Public Expenditure in Fiji: Theory and Empirical Results

The purpose of this paper is to analyse government expenditure in Iran using annual time series data for the period 1963-2000. Various theories of the size of government are reviewed and a distinction is made between economic/structural determinants and institutional determinants. Categorising the theories of government expenditure in this way suggests the application of non-nested tests as a mechanism whereby the relative importance of the two broad theoretical categories can be determined. The empirical results, indicating "double rejection", reveal that neither the economic/structural determinants nor the institutional determinants alone are sufficient to explain government expenditure in Iran. A comprehensive, incorporating explanatory variables from both models provides a robust explanation of the data. This paper presents the first empirical estimates of the own-price elasticity of the demand, and income elasticity of the demand, for current government expenditures in Iran