The geopolitical implications of the House of Commons’ decision to reject military intervention in Syria

In August 2013, the House of Commons rejected a Government proposal to intervene in the Syrian conflict following that country’s regime’s use of chemical weapons. Here, Dr Kristian Coates Ulrichsen assesses the geopolitical implications of that dramatic night in the House of Commons, arguing that it decisively stopped the momentum towards war

In light of its previous involvement, the U.S. must now be cautious in its approach to the current crisis in Iraq

More than two years after the U.S. pulled its last remaining combat troops out of Iraq, the Obama administration is now confronted with the question of how to respond to the renewed sectarian violence of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (ISIS). Kristian Coates Ulrichsen argues that the present crisis in Iraq needs to be seen in the context of the consolidation of power of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki since 2006, who has alienated much of Iraqi society through an increasingly majoritarian rule. He also warns that there is a distinct chance that any further U.S. arms introduced into the conflict may end up in the hands of ISIS or be used by the government to crack down on political opposition

Walking the Tightrope: Kuwaiti-Iranian Relations in the Aftermath of the Abdali Affair

Kuwait has expelled fifteen Iranian diplomats and submitted a formal letter of protest to the Lebanese government as the fallout from the ‘Abdali affair’ reverberates around the state. Fourteen members of the suspected terror cell, charged with stockpiling large quantities of weaponry in Kuwait and receiving training from Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), disappeared in mid-July. The supreme court in Kuwait had overturned an earlier acquittal and sentenced them to between five and fifteen years’ imprisonment. The diplomatic rift marks a turnaround from Emir Sabah al-Ahmad Al Sabah’s early 2017 outreach to Iranian President Rouhani, when the Emir sought to identify the parameters of a possible strategic dialogue that could dial down tensions in the Gulf. In addition to impacting the bilateral relationship between Kuwait and Iran, the affair underscores Kuwait’s vulnerability to external fissures that connect domestic Kuwaiti politics with broader regional upheaval

Small states with a big role : Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in the wake of the Arab Spring

The international military intervention in Libya in March 2011 dramatically exposed the new contours of power and influence in the Middle East regional system. At a time of regional upheaval, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) appeared to be outposts of stability and prosperity, even as the protests reached neighbouring Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Their ostensible calm reinforced both countries’ ambitious state-branding strategies and imbued ruling elites in Doha and Abu Dhabi with the confidence to lead the Arab response to Libya. This was consistent with their leaderships’ visions of Qatar and the UAE as regional powers with a truly international reach. Moreover, it came just three months after the surprise awarding of the 2022 FIFA soccer World Cup symbolised the Gulf States’ arrival as global actors. This paper will critically examine the prominent rise of Qatar and the UAE in a region in transition

U.S. strikes in Syria may mean that the next President is doomed to inherit a long term conflict in the Middle East

Last week, the U.S. expanded its bombing campaign against the forces of the Islamic State to targets in Syria. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen writes that there are questions over the legality of the actions, which have been justified under the 2001 authorisation made in the wake of 9/11, and over its effects on the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, which is also fighting Islamic State forces. He writes that for U.S. allies in the Gulf such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, participating in the U.S. led coalition offers them an opportunity to rehabilitate their international reputations which was damaged during the Arab Spring

While the Obama administration acted fast to protect US interests in Iraq, it now needs to devise a way of tackling the threat posed by the Islamic State

Late last week, President Obama announced that the US would begin targeted airstrikes against Islamic State artillery positions in northern Iraq. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen writes that facing a war-weary public, the administration should use this as an opportunity to develop a new approach to Iraq with local and regional partners that builds upon and does not squander the temporary convergence of policy in overcoming the threat from the Islamic State

Fire and Fury in the Gulf

Amid the fire and fury of Michael Wolff’s explosive account of the Trump presidency so far, readers hoping for greater insight into some of the international controversies of his first year in office were left wanting more than the few pages on the president’s May 2017 visit to Saudi Arabia and Israel. Wolff suggests that the ‘Trump Doctrine’ boiled down to a transactional ‘If you give us what we want, we’ll give you what you want’, and that Saudi Arabia had become a test case to put it into action. Yet beyond a few platitudes about the ties between Jared Kushner and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Wolff did not dwell on the runup to and the aftermath of the Riyadh Summit that Trump attended in May 2017. This is an omission because the outreach by officials from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to the then-incoming administration provides a cautionary tale about the conduct of foreign policy in the Age of Trump

COOPERAÇÃO SUL-SUL E A MUDANÇA DO PAPEL DOS ESTADOS DO GOLFO

This article assesses the role of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) in the framework of South-South Cooperation. It charts the different phases of engagement between the Gulf States and other developing countries, and the shifting dynamics that underpinned them. These phrases demonstrated profound changes that reflected policymaking calibrations in response to  domestic, regional and international catalysts. When read together, the internal and external forces that press upon the GCC States shape the analytical perspective of this article. Further, these internal and external pressures  shaped the Gulf States’ contributions to South-South Cooperation, and framed the intra-regional and international  realignments within which GCC  engagements took place.Esse artigo avalia o papel dos estados membros do Conselho de Cooperação do Golfo (CCG) – Bahrein, Kuwait, Omã, Qatar, Arábia Saudita e Emirados Árabes Unidos - no âmbito da cooperação Sul-Sul. Ele traça as diferentes fases de engajamento entre os Estados do Golfo e outros países em desenvolvimento, e a mudança das dinâmicas que os sustentam. Essas fases demonstram profundas mudanças que refletiram ajustes na formulação de políticas em resposta a catalisadores domésticos, regionais e internacionais. Quando analisadas em conjunto, as forças internas e externas que pressionam os Estados do CCG moldam a perspectiva de análise deste artigo. Além disso, essas pressões internas e externas moldaram as contribuições dos Estados do Golfo para a Cooperação Sul-Sul, e definiram os realinhamentos intra-regionais e internacionais nos quais o CCG se engajou

Basra, southern Iraq and the Gulf: challenges and connections

The gradual reconstitution of state control and legitimate political authority in Iraq presents local and regional actors with a range of new challenges at a time of considerable tension in the Arab world. The Iraqi polity gradually began to re-cohere in 2008 following the traumas of the US-led invasion in 2003 and the sectarian civil war between 2005 and 2007. As this process gathered momentum, an array of new, and unresolved existing, issues threaten to undermine the fragile veneer of stability in Basra and southern Iraq. These include the nature of the domestic and regional ties and networks of individuals and organizations binding Basra both to the rest of Iraq and to its broader Arabian/Persian Gulf hinterland. Hence the challenge for policy-makers in Iraq and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states is how to smooth Iraq’s re-entry into regional affairs following two decades of isolation and mutual mistrust, and three decades of conflict and under-development. This paper examines the challenges and connections between Basra, southern Iraq and the Gulf. It begins with a historical assessment of the flows of people, goods and ideas during the formative period of state-building and consolidation in the region. The creation of national boundaries and identities disrupted traditional patterns of trade and generated new fault-lines. Oil, and a contentious boundary dispute between Iraq and Kuwait, sharpened these tensions and culminated in the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. The 1991 Gulf War and subsequent decade of containment likewise culminated in the 2003 US-led occupation of Iraq. The second section of this paper analyses the occupation of Iraq and the multiple causes of state failure and proliferating violence in Basra. This and the final section on future challenges explore the domestic and regional issues that complicate the ongoing processes of reconstruction and recovery in southern Iraq and its relationship with its regional hinterland. These include flaring tensions with Kuwait, enduring friction with Saudi Arabia, and the volatile geopolitics of regional insecurity more generally in the light of the new pressures generated by the Arab Spring

Gulf security: changing internal and external dynamics

The concept of ‘Gulf security’ is evolving in response to new challenges which link internal security to external stability and international events in the region. Food, water and energy security, managing and mitigating the impact of climate change, rapidly rising populations and the youth bulge, structural economic deficiencies and spiralling inflation, and progressive state failure in Yemen, all require a broad, global and multidimensional approach to Gulf security. While ‘traditional’ threats from Iraq, Iran, nuclear proliferation and transnational terrorism remain strong, these new challenges to Gulf security have the potential to strike at the heart of the social contract and redistributive mechanisms that bind state and society in the Arab oil monarchies. This paper examines the relationship between ‘traditional’ and ‘new’ security challenges and the ongoing processes of political reform and economic liberalization and diversification in the Gulf. It explores the way in which regimes are anticipating and reacting to the shifting security paradigm, and contextualizes these changes within the broader political, economic, social and demographic framework. It argues that a holistic approach to security is necessary for regimes to renew their sources of legitimacy in a globalizing world of transnational flows and multiple layers of global governance