Preventing False Discovery in Interactive Data Analysis is Hard

We show that, under a standard hardness assumption, there is no computationally efficient algorithm that given $n$ samples from an unknown distribution can give valid answers to $n^{3+o(1)}$ adaptively chosen statistical queries. A statistical query asks for the expectation of a predicate over the underlying distribution, and an answer to a statistical query is valid if it is "close" to the correct expectation over the distribution. Our result stands in stark contrast to the well known fact that exponentially many statistical queries can be answered validly and efficiently if the queries are chosen non-adaptively (no query may depend on the answers to previous queries). Moreover, a recent work by Dwork et al. shows how to accurately answer exponentially many adaptively chosen statistical queries via a computationally inefficient algorithm; and how to answer a quadratic number of adaptive queries via a computationally efficient algorithm. The latter result implies that our result is tight up to a linear factor in $n.$ Conceptually, our result demonstrates that achieving statistical validity alone can be a source of computational intractability in adaptive settings. For example, in the modern large collaborative research environment, data analysts typically choose a particular approach based on previous findings. False discovery occurs if a research finding is supported by the data but not by the underlying distribution. While the study of preventing false discovery in Statistics is decades old, to the best of our knowledge our result is the first to demonstrate a computational barrier. In particular, our result suggests that the perceived difficulty of preventing false discovery in today's collaborative research environment may be inherent

Tight Lower Bounds for Differentially Private Selection

A pervasive task in the differential privacy literature is to select the $k$ items of "highest quality" out of a set of $d$ items, where the quality of each item depends on a sensitive dataset that must be protected. Variants of this task arise naturally in fundamental problems like feature selection and hypothesis testing, and also as subroutines for many sophisticated differentially private algorithms. The standard approaches to these tasks---repeated use of the exponential mechanism or the sparse vector technique---approximately solve this problem given a dataset of $n = O(\sqrt{k}\log d)$ samples. We provide a tight lower bound for some very simple variants of the private selection problem. Our lower bound shows that a sample of size $n = \Omega(\sqrt{k} \log d)$ is required even to achieve a very minimal accuracy guarantee. Our results are based on an extension of the fingerprinting method to sparse selection problems. Previously, the fingerprinting method has been used to provide tight lower bounds for answering an entire set of $d$ queries, but often only some much smaller set of $k$ queries are relevant. Our extension allows us to prove lower bounds that depend on both the number of relevant queries and the total number of queries

Skyline Identification in Multi-Armed Bandits

We introduce a variant of the classical PAC multi-armed bandit problem. There is an ordered set of $n$ arms $A[1],\dots,A[n]$, each with some stochastic reward drawn from some unknown bounded distribution. The goal is to identify the $skyline$ of the set $A$, consisting of all arms $A[i]$ such that $A[i]$ has larger expected reward than all lower-numbered arms $A[1],\dots,A[i-1]$. We define a natural notion of an $\varepsilon$-approximate skyline and prove matching upper and lower bounds for identifying an $\varepsilon$-skyline. Specifically, we show that in order to identify an $\varepsilon$-skyline from among $n$ arms with probability $1-\delta$, $$\Theta\bigg(\frac{n}{\varepsilon^2} \cdot \min\bigg\{ \log\bigg(\frac{1}{\varepsilon \delta}\bigg), \log\bigg(\frac{n}{\delta}\bigg) \bigg\} \bigg)$$ samples are necessary and sufficient. When $\varepsilon \gg 1/n$, our results improve over the naive algorithm, which draws enough samples to approximate the expected reward of every arm; the algorithm of (Auer et al., AISTATS'16) for Pareto-optimal arm identification is likewise superseded. Our results show that the sample complexity of the skyline problem lies strictly in between that of best arm identification (Even-Dar et al., COLT'02) and that of approximating the expected reward of every arm.Comment: 18 pages, 2 Figures; an ALT'18/ISIT'18 submissio