Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria

The main objective of the paper is to understand the contributions to the uncertainty in low-flow projections resulting from hydrological model uncertainty and climate projection uncertainty. Model uncertainty is quantified by different parameterisations of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrologic model (TUWmodel) using 11 objective functions in three different decades (1976&ndash;1986, 1987&ndash;1997, 1998&ndash;2008), which allows for disentangling the effect of the objective function-related uncertainty and temporal stability of model parameters. Climate projection uncertainty is quantified by four future climate scenarios (ECHAM5-A1B, A2, B1 and HADCM3-A1B) using a delta change approach. The approach is tested for 262 basins in Austria. <br><br> The results indicate that the seasonality of the low-flow regime is an important factor affecting the performance of model calibration in the reference period and the uncertainty of <i>Q</i>₉₅ low-flow projections in the future period. In Austria, the range of simulated <i>Q</i>₉₅ in the reference period is larger in basins with a summer low-flow regime than in basins with a winter low-flow regime. The accuracy of simulated <i>Q</i>₉₅ may result in a range of up to 60 % depending on the decade used for calibration. <br><br> The low-flow projections of Q₉₅ show an increase of low flows in the Alps, typically in the range of 10–30 % and a decrease in the south-eastern part of Austria mostly in the range &minus;5 to &minus;20 % for the climate change projected for the future period 2021&ndash;2050, relative the reference period 1978&ndash;2007. The change in seasonality varies between scenarios, but there is a tendency for earlier low flows in the northern Alps and later low flows in eastern Austria. The total uncertainty of <i>Q</i>₉₅ projections is the largest in basins with a winter low-flow regime and, in some basins the range of <i>Q</i>₉₅ projections exceeds 60 %. In basins with summer low flows, the total uncertainty is mostly less than 20 %. The ANOVA assessment of the relative contribution of the three main variance components (i.e. climate scenario, decade used for model calibration and calibration variant representing different objective function) to the low-flow projection uncertainty shows that in basins with summer low flows climate scenarios contribute more than 75 % to the total projection uncertainty. In basins with a winter low-flow regime, the median contribution of climate scenario, decade and objective function is 29, 13 and 13 %, respectively. The implications of the uncertainties identified in this paper for water resource management are discussed

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Stand: 28. Juli 202036

Occurrence and levels of micropollutants across environmental and engineered compartments in Austria

Occurrence and concentration of a broad spectrum of micropollutants are investigated in Austrian river catchments, namely polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), organotin compounds, perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) and metals. The parallel analysis across multiple environmental and engineered compartments sheds light on the ratio of dissolved and particulate transport and on differences in concentration levels between point and diffuse emission pathways. It is found that some PAHs and organotins are present in rivers, groundwater and bulk deposition at higher concentrations than in municipal wastewater effluents. Among PFAAs and metals, highest concentrations were recorded either in atmospheric deposition or in discharges from wastewater treatment plants. The relevance of the analysis across compartments is best shown by the case of perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS). Despite municipal wastewater effluents being the emission pathway with highest concentrations, this study reveals that not only rivers, but also atmospheric deposition and groundwater sometimes exceed the environmental quality standard for surface waters. Moreover, this work reveals partially counterintuitive patterns. In rivers with treated wastewater discharges, increasing levels of dissolved compounds were measured at rising flow conditions, whereas the opposite would be expected owing to the dilution effect. This might derive from the mobilisation from soil or suspended particulate matter or rather find its explanation in high concentrations in atmospheric deposition. These hypotheses require however being tested through targeted studies. Additional future research includes the analysis of how regional or catchment specific characteristics might alter the relative importance of different emission pathways, and the modelling of emission and river loads to assess their relative contribution to river pollution.Federal Ministry of Sustainability and Tourism (BMNT)6366531

A novel integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on land use and water quality

Changes in climatic conditions will directly affect the quality and quantity of water resources. Further on, they will affect them indirectly through adaptation in land use which ultimately influences diffuse nutrient emissions to rivers and therefore potentially the compliance with good ecological status according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). We present an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to track and quantify direct and indirect pollution impacts along policy-economy-climate-agriculture-water interfaces. The IIMF is applied to assess impacts of climatic and socio-economic drivers on agricultural land use (crop choices, farming practices and fertilization levels), river flows and the risk for exceedance of environmental quality standards for determination of the ecological water quality status in Austria. This article also presents model interfaces as well as validation procedures and results of single models and the IIMF with respect to observed state variables such as land use, river flow and nutrient river loads. The performance of the IIMF for calculations of river nutrient loads (120 monitoring stations) shows a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.73 for nitrogen and 0.51 for phosphorus. Most problematic is the modelling of phosphorus loads in the alpine catchments dominated by forests and mountainous landscape. About 63% of these catchments show a deviation between modelled and observed loads of 30% and more. In catchments dominated by agricultural production, the performance of the IIMF is much better as only 30% of cropland and 23% of permanent grassland dominated areas have a deviation of > 30% between modelled and observed loads. As risk of exceedance of environmental quality standards is mainly recognized in catchments dominated by cropland, the IIMF is well suited for assessing the nutrient component of the WFD ecological status.The Climate and Energy Fund113711511

Modelled impacts of policies and climate change on land use and water quality in Austria

Climate change is a major driver of land use with implications for the quality and quantity of water resources. We apply a novel integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to analyze climate change impacts until 2040 and stakeholder driven scenarios on water protection policies for sustainable management of land and water resources in Austria. The IIMF mainly consists of the sequentially linked bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel, and the nutrient emission model MONERIS. Three climate scenarios with identical temperature trends but diverging precipitation patterns shall represent uncertainty ranges from climate change, i.e. a dry and wet situation. Water protection policies are clustered to two policy portfolios WAP_I and WAP_II, which are targeted to regions (WAP_I) or applied at the national scale (WAP_II). Policies cover agri-environmental programs and legal standards and tackle management measures such as restrictions in fertilizer, soil and crop rotation management as well as establishment of buffer strips. Results show that average national agricultural gross margin varies by ±2%, but regional impacts are more pronounced particularly under a climate scenario with decreasing precipitation sums. WAP_I can alleviate pressures compared to the business as usual scenario but does not lead to the achievement of environmental quality standards for P in all rivers. WAP_II further reduces total nutrient emissions but at higher total private land use costs. At the national average, total private land use costs for reducing nutrient emission loads in surface waters are 60–200 €/kg total N and 120–250 €/kg total P with precipitation and the degree of regional targeting as drivers. To conclude, the IIMF is able to capture the interfaces between climate change, land use, and water quality in a policy context. Despite efforts to improve model linkages and the robustness of model output, uncertainty propagations in integrated modelling frameworks need to be tackled in subsequent studies.Austrian Science Fund (FWF)The Climate and Energy Fund, "Aqua-Stress” Project5005141