Testing the Effect of Neighboring Open Space on Development Using Propensity Score Matching

Environmental Economics and Policy,

An Empirical Examination of Real Options and the Timing of Land Conversions

Many studies have examined the effects of land use regulations on land prices and urban spatial form. Increasingly, jurisdictions have adopted incentive based mechanisms, such as purchase of development rights (PDR) programs, to manage the pace and pattern of urban growth and the conversion of agricultural land. PDR programs provide a third option to landowners in urbanizing areas: in addition to deciding whether to develop or not, landowners can decide whether to preserve their land. To our knowledge no studies have explored how the existence of an option to participate in a PDR program affects landowners' development decisions. This research provides empirical evidence of a previously untested prediction of real options theory: that additional options increase the value of waiting to make irreversible decisions. Our paper considers how an additional land use alternative, preservation, conveys a different type of option value and how that option affects the optimal conversion time. We estimate a hazard model and find significant evidence that the option to enter an easement decreases the hazard rate of development by about 40%. The results suggest that PDR programs can provide additional open space and amenity values beyond what is provided on preserved parcels, by delaying development (by at least a few years) of parcels that are not actually preserved.agricultural preservation programs, real options, land conversion, Land Economics/Use,

Credit Access: Implications for Sole-Proprietor Household Production

The objective of this study is to explain the determinants of farm and non-farm sole proprietorship households access to credit as well as the extent their credit constraints impact their value of production. A propensity, kernel-based matching estimator was employed to provide unbiased estimates of the production impacts of being denied credit. Prior research efforts have used inferior methods, including the two-stage Heckman estimator deal with estimation issues (selection bias and endogeneity) inherent in determining impacts of credit access and use. Results suggest that credit constrained sole-proprietorships, farm and non-farm, have a significantly lower value of production, but this drop in production, when aggregated to a national level, is small.farm credit, credit constraint, debt, Agricultural Finance,

A Hybrid Land Conversion Model Incorporating Multiple End Uses

The need for models that forecast land use change spans many disciplines and encompasses many approaches. Pattern-based models were the first in which projections of change at specific locations in actual landscapes could be predicted. In contrast, recent economic models have modeled the underlying behavioral process that produces land use change. This paper combines attributes from each approach into a hybrid model using a multiple discrete continuous extreme value formulation that allows for multiple conversion types, while also estimating the intensity of each type of conversion, which is an important but often overlooked dimension. We demonstrate the simulation routine, which successfully predicts a majority of growth by type, time, and location at a disaggregated scale, for a three-county region in Maryland.MDCEV, land conversion, regional planning, urban growth policy, Land Economics/Use,