Sipping Fuel and Saving Lives: Increasing Fuel Economy without Sacrificing Safety

Demonstrates how new fuel-efficiency technologies make it possible, and advisable, to significantly increase the fuel economy of motor vehicles without compromising their safety

Navigating the Range of Statistical Tools for Inferential Network Analysis

The last decade has seen substantial advances in statistical techniques for the analysis of network data, as well as a major increase in the frequency with which these tools are used. These techniques are designed to accomplish the same broad goal, statistically valid inference in the presence of highly interdependent relationships, but important differences remain between them. We review three approaches commonly used for inferential network analysis—the quadratic assignment procedure, exponential random graph models, and latent space network models—highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the techniques relative to one another. An illustrative example using climate change policy network data shows that all three network models outperform standard logit estimates on multiple criteria. This article introduces political scientists to a class of network techniques beyond simple descriptive measures of network structure, and it helps researchers choose which model to use in their own research

A New Panel-Estimated GFR, Including beta(2)-Microglobulin and beta-Trace Protein and Not Including Race, Developed in a Diverse Population

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVE: GFR estimation based on creatinine and cystatin C (eGFR(cr-cys)) is more accurate than eGFR based on either creatinine or cystatin C alone (eGFR(cr) or eGFR(cys)), but the inclusion of creatinine in eGFR(cr-cys) requires specification of a person’s race. Beta-2-microglobulin (B2M) and beta-trace protein (BTP) are alternative filtration markers that appear to be less influenced by race than creatinine. STUDY DESIGN: Study of diagnostic test accuracy. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Development in pooled population of seven studies with 5017 participants with and without chronic kidney disease. External validation in a pooled population of seven other studies with 2245 participants. TESTS COMPARED: Panel eGFR using B2M and BTP in addition to cystatin C (three-marker panel) or creatinine and cystatin C (four-marker panel) with and without age and sex or race. OUTCOMES: GFR measured as the urinary clearance of iothalamate, plasma clearance of iohexol, or plasma clearance of Cr-EDTA RESULTS: Mean measured GFR was 58.1 and 83.2 ml/min/1.73m(2) and the proportion of blacks was 38.6% and 24.0%, in the development and validation populations, respectively. In development, addition of age and sex improved the performance of all equations compared to equations without age and sex, but addition of race did not further improve the performance. In validation, the four-marker panels were more accurate than the three-marker panels (p<0.001). The three-marker panel without race was more accurate than eGFR(cys) [1- P(30) of 15.6 vs 17.4% (p=0.014)], and the four-marker panel without race was as accurate as eGFR(cr-cys) [1- P(30) of 8.6 vs 9.4% (p=0.17)]. Results were generally consistent across subgroups. LIMITATIONS: No representation of participants with severe comorbid illness and from geographic areas outside of North America and Europe. CONCLUSIONS: The four-marker panel eGFR is as accurate as eGFR(cr-cys), without requiring specification of race. A more accurate race-free eGFR could be an important advance

Early Change in Urine Protein as a Surrogate End Point in Studies of IgA Nephropathy: An Individual-Patient Meta-analysis

Background The role of change in proteinuria as a surrogate end point for randomized trials in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) has previously not been thoroughly evaluated. Study Design Individual patient–level meta-analysis. Setting &amp; Population Individual-patient data for 830 patients from 11 randomized trials evaluating 4 intervention types (renin-angiotensin system [RAS] blockade, fish oil, immunosuppression, and steroids) examining associations between changes in urine protein and clinical end points at the individual and trial levels. Selection Criteria for Studies Randomized controlled trials of IgAN with measurements of proteinuria at baseline and a median of 9 (range, 5-12) months follow-up, with at least 1 further year of follow-up for the clinical outcome. Predictor 9-month change in proteinuria. Outcome Doubling of serum creatinine level, end-stage renal disease, or death. Results Early decline in proteinuria at 9 months was associated with lower risk for the clinical outcome (HR per 50% reduction in proteinuria, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.32-0.48) and was consistent across studies. Proportions of treatment effect on the clinical outcome explained by early decline in proteinuria were estimated at 11% (95% CI, −19% to 41%) for RAS blockade and 29% (95% CI, 6% to 53%) for steroid therapy. The direction of the pooled treatment effect on early change in proteinuria was in accord with the direction of the treatment effect on the clinical outcome for steroids and RAS blockade. Trial-level analyses estimated that the slope for the regression line for the association of treatment effects on the clinical end points and for the treatment effect on proteinuria was 2.15 (95% Bayesian credible interval, 0.10-4.32). Limitations Study population restricted to 11 trials, all having fewer than 200 patients each with a limited number of clinical events. Conclusions Results of this analysis offer novel evidence supporting the use of an early reduction in proteinuria as a surrogate end point for clinical end points in IgAN in selected settings

Change in Albuminuria and GFR Slope as Joint Surrogate End Points for Kidney Failure:Implications for Phase 2 Clinical Trials in CKD

Significance Statement: Changes in albuminuria and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression, and studies have demonstrated that each is associated with treatment effects on clinical end points. In this study, the authors sought to develop a conceptual framework that combines both surrogate end points to better predict treatment effects on clinical end points in Phase 2 trials. The results demonstrate that information from the combined treatment effects on albuminuria and GFR slope improves the prediction of treatment effects on the clinical end point for Phase 2 trials with sample sizes between 100 and 200 patients and duration of follow-up ranging from 1 to 2 years. These findings may help inform design of clinical trials for interventions aimed at slowing CKD progression.Background Changes in log urinary albumin-To-creatinine ratio (UACR) and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression. Whether combining these surrogate end points might strengthen inferences about clinical benefit is unknown.Methods Using Bayesian meta-regressions across 41 randomized trials of CKD progression, we characterized the combined relationship between the treatment effects on the clinical end point (sustained doubling of serum creatinine, GFR &lt;15 ml/min per 1.73 m2, or kidney failure) and treatment effects on UACR change and chronic GFR slope after 3 months. We applied the results to the design of Phase 2 trials on the basis of UACR change and chronic GFR slope in combination.Results Treatment effects on the clinical end point were strongly associated with the combination of treatment effects on UACR change and chronic slope. The posterior median meta-regression coefficients for treatment effects were-0.41 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval,-0.64 to-0.17) per 1 ml/min per 1.73 m2per year for the treatment effect on GFR slope and-0.06 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval,-0.90 to 0.77) for the treatment effect on UACR change. The predicted probability of clinical benefit when considering both surrogates was determined primarily by estimated treatment effects on UACR when sample size was small (approximately 60 patients per treatment arm) and follow-up brief (approximately 1 year), with the importance of GFR slope increasing for larger sample sizes and longer follow-up.Conclusions In Phase 2 trials of CKD with sample sizes of 100-200 patients per arm and follow-up between 1 and 2 years, combining information from treatment effects on UACR change and GFR slope improved the prediction of treatment effects on clinical end points.</p

Science Impacts of the SPHEREx All-Sky Optical to Near-Infrared Spectral Survey: Report of a Community Workshop Examining Extragalactic, Galactic, Stellar and Planetary Science

SPHEREx is a proposed SMEX mission selected for Phase A. SPHEREx will carry out the first all-sky spectral survey and provide for every 6.2" pixel a spectra between 0.75 and 4.18 $\mu$m [with R$\sim$41.4] and 4.18 and 5.00 $\mu$m [with R$\sim$135]. The SPHEREx team has proposed three specific science investigations to be carried out with this unique data set: cosmic inflation, interstellar and circumstellar ices, and the extra-galactic background light. It is readily apparent, however, that many other questions in astrophysics and planetary sciences could be addressed with the SPHEREx data. The SPHEREx team convened a community workshop in February 2016, with the intent of enlisting the aid of a larger group of scientists in defining these questions. This paper summarizes the rich and varied menu of investigations that was laid out. It includes studies of the composition of main belt and Trojan/Greek asteroids; mapping the zodiacal light with unprecedented spatial and spectral resolution; identifying and studying very low-metallicity stars; improving stellar parameters in order to better characterize transiting exoplanets; studying aliphatic and aromatic carbon-bearing molecules in the interstellar medium; mapping star formation rates in nearby galaxies; determining the redshift of clusters of galaxies; identifying high redshift quasars over the full sky; and providing a NIR spectrum for most eROSITA X-ray sources. All of these investigations, and others not listed here, can be carried out with the nominal all-sky spectra to be produced by SPHEREx. In addition, the workshop defined enhanced data products and user tools which would facilitate some of these scientific studies. Finally, the workshop noted the high degrees of synergy between SPHEREx and a number of other current or forthcoming programs, including JWST, WFIRST, Euclid, GAIA, K2/Kepler, TESS, eROSITA and LSST.Comment: Report of the First SPHEREx Community Workshop, http://spherex.caltech.edu/Workshop.html , 84 pages, 28 figure

A candidate for a background independent formulation of M theory

A class of background independent membrane field theories are studied, and several properties are discovered which suggest that they may play a role in a background independent form of M theory. The bulk kinematics of these theories are described in terms of the conformal blocks of an algebra G on all oriented, finite genus, two-surfaces. The bulk dynamics is described in terms of causal histories in which time evolution is specified by giving amplitudes to certain local changes of the states. Holographic observables are defined which live in finite dimensional states spaces associated with boundaries in spacetime. We show here that the natural observables in these boundary state spaces are, when G is chosen to be Spin(D) or a supersymmetric extension of it, generalizations of matrix model coordinates in D dimensions. In certain cases the bulk dynamics can be chosen so the matrix model dynamics is recoverd for the boundary observables. The bosonic and supersymmetric cases in D=3 and D=9 are studied, and it is shown that the latter is, in a certain limit, related to the matrix model formulation of M theory. This correspondence gives rise to a conjecture concerning a background independent form of M theory in terms of which excitations of the background independent membrane field theory that correspond to strings and D0 branes are identified.Comment: Latex 46 pages, 21 figures, new results included which lead to a modification of the statement of the basic conjecture. Presentation improve

Evaluation of Variation in the Performance of GFR Slope as a Surrogate End Point for Kidney Failure in Clinical Trials that Differ by Severity of CKD

BACKGROUND: The GFR slope has been evaluated as a surrogate end point for kidney failure in meta-analyses on a broad collection of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in CKD. These analyses evaluate how accurately a treatment effect on GFR slope predicts a treatment effect on kidney failure. We sought to determine whether severity of CKD in the patient population modifies the performance of GFR slope. METHODS: We performed Bayesian meta-regression analyses on 66 CKD RCTs to evaluate associations between effects on GFR slope (the chronic slope and the total slope over 3 years, expressed as mean differences in ml/min per 1.73 m2/yr) and those of the clinical end point (doubling of serum creatinine, GFR &lt;15 ml/min per 1.73 m2, or kidney failure, expressed as a log-hazard ratio), where models allow interaction with variables defining disease severity. We evaluated three measures (baseline GFR in 10 ml/min per 1.73 m2, baseline urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio [UACR] per doubling in mg/g, and CKD progression rate defined as the control arm chronic slope, in ml/min per 1.73 m2/yr) and defined strong evidence for modification when 95% posterior credible intervals for interaction terms excluded zero. RESULTS: There was no evidence for modification by disease severity when evaluating 3-year total slope (95% credible intervals for the interaction slope: baseline GFR [-0.05 to 0.03]; baseline UACR [-0.02 to 0.04]; CKD progression rate [-0.07 to 0.02]). There was strong evidence for modification in evaluations of chronic slope (95% credible intervals: baseline GFR [0.02 to 0.11]; baseline UACR [-0.11 to -0.02]; CKD progression rate [0.01 to 0.15]). CONCLUSIONS: These analyses indicate consistency of the performance of total slope over 3 years, which provides further evidence for its validity as a surrogate end point in RCTs representing varied CKD populations.</p

A meta-analysis of GFR slope as a surrogate endpoint for kidney failure

Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline is causally associated with kidney failure and is a candidate surrogate endpoint for clinical trials of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. Analyses across a diverse spectrum of interventions and populations is required for acceptance of GFR decline as an endpoint. In an analysis of individual participant data, for each of 66 studies (total of 186,312 participants), we estimated treatment effects on the total GFR slope, computed from baseline to 3 years, and chronic slope, starting at 3 months after randomization, and on the clinical endpoint (doubling of serum creatinine, GFR

Search for CP Violation in the Decay Z -> b (b bar) g

About three million hadronic decays of the Z collected by ALEPH in the years 1991-1994 are used to search for anomalous CP violation beyond the Standard Model in the decay Z -> b \bar{b} g. The study is performed by analyzing angular correlations between the two quarks and the gluon in three-jet events and by measuring the differential two-jet rate. No signal of CP violation is found. For the combinations of anomalous CP violating couplings, ${\hat{h}}_b = {\hat{h}}_{Ab}g_{Vb}-{\hat{h}}_{Vb}g_{Ab}$ and $h^{\ast}_b = \sqrt{\hat{h}_{Vb}^{2}+\hat{h}_{Ab}^{2}}$, limits of \hat{h}_b < 0.59$and$h^{\ast}_{b} < 3.02$ are given at 95\% CL.Comment: 8 pages, 1 postscript figure, uses here.sty, epsfig.st