Simple Tests for Selection Bias: Learning More from Instrumental Variables

We provide simple tests for selection on unobserved variables in the Vytlacil-Imbens-Angrist framework for Local Average Treatment Effects. The tests allow researchers not only to test for selection on either or both of the treated and untreated outcomes, but also to assess the magnitude of the selection effect. The tests are quite simple; undergraduates after an introductory econometrics class should be able to implement these tests. We illustrate our tests with two empirical applications: the impact of children on female labor supply from Angrist and Evans (1998) and the training of adult women from the Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) experiment

Eartharxiv: Today and Tomorrow

EarthArXiv is a preprint service for the Earth sciences — a web-based system that enables open access publishing of non peer-reviewed scholarly manuscripts before publication in a peer-reviewed journal. In this presentation, we provide analytics on the usage of EarthArXiv across a number of sub-disciplines of Earth science. Data indicate that the service in general is growing, but with submission rates varying amongst discipline. The trend of the preprint-to-postprint ratio for each discipline also provides insight into how the various Earth science communities are using the service. We investigate were preprints are published after submission to EarthArXiv and examine how many of these publication venues are listed in the Directory of Open Access Journals. Finally, we will discuss future opportunities we are exploring to make preprints more accepted and easier to use

Simple Tests for Selection: Learning More from Instrumental Variables

We provide simple tests for selection on unobserved variables in the Vytlacil-Imbens-Angrist framework for Local Average Treatment Effects. The tests allow researchers not only to test for selection on either or both of the treated and untreated outcomes, but also to assess the magnitude of the selection effect. The tests are quite simple; undergraduates after an introductory econometrics class should be able to implement these tests. We illustrate our tests with two empirical applications: the impact of children on female labor supply from Angrist and Evans (1998) and the impact of training on adult women from the Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) experiment

Huntingtin Fragments and SOD1 Mutants Form Soluble Oligomers in the Cell

Diffusion coefficients of huntingtin (Htt) fragments and SOD1 mutants expressed in cells were measured using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy. The diffusion mobilities of both non-pathological Htt fragments (25 polyQs) and pathological Htt fragments (103 polyQs) were much slower than expected for monomers suggesting that they oligomerize. The mobility of these fragments was unaffected by duration of expression or by over-expression of Hsp70 and Hsp40. However in cells with HttQ103 inclusions, diffusion measurements showed that the residual cytosolic HttQ103 was monomeric. These results suggest that both non-pathological and pathological Htt fragments form soluble oligomers in the cytosol with the properties of the oligomers determining whether they cause pathology. SOD1 with point mutations (A4V, G37R, and G85R) also had slower diffusional mobility than the wild-type protein whose mobility was consistent with that of a dimer. However, the decrease in mobility of the different SOD1 mutantsdid not correlate with their known pathology. Therefore, while soluble oligomers always seem to be present under conditions where cell pathology occurs, the presence of the oligomers, in itself, does not determine the extent of neuropathology

Power spectrum for the small-scale Universe

The first objects to arise in a cold dark matter universe present a daunting challenge for models of structure formation. In the ultra small-scale limit, CDM structures form nearly simultaneously across a wide range of scales. Hierarchical clustering no longer provides a guiding principle for theoretical analyses and the computation time required to carry out credible simulations becomes prohibitively high. To gain insight into this problem, we perform high-resolution (N=720^3 - 1584^3) simulations of an Einstein-de Sitter cosmology where the initial power spectrum is P(k) propto k^n, with -2.5 < n < -1. Self-similar scaling is established for n=-1 and n=-2 more convincingly than in previous, lower-resolution simulations and for the first time, self-similar scaling is established for an n=-2.25 simulation. However, finite box-size effects induce departures from self-similar scaling in our n=-2.5 simulation. We compare our results with the predictions for the power spectrum from (one-loop) perturbation theory and demonstrate that the renormalization group approach suggested by McDonald improves perturbation theory's ability to predict the power spectrum in the quasilinear regime. In the nonlinear regime, our power spectra differ significantly from the widely used fitting formulae of Peacock & Dodds and Smith et al. and a new fitting formula is presented. Implications of our results for the stable clustering hypothesis vs. halo model debate are discussed. Our power spectra are inconsistent with predictions of the stable clustering hypothesis in the high-k limit and lend credence to the halo model. Nevertheless, the fitting formula advocated in this paper is purely empirical and not derived from a specific formulation of the halo model.Comment: 30 pages including 10 figures; accepted for publication in MNRA

CO Emission in Low Luminosity, HI Rich Galaxies

We present 12CO 1-0 observations of eleven low luminosity M_B > -18), HI--rich dwarf galaxies. Only the three most metal-rich galaxies, with 12+log(O/H) ~ 8.2, are detected. Very deep CO spectra of six extremely metal-poor systems (12+log(O/H) < 7.5) yield only low upper limits on the CO surface brightness, I_CO < 0.1 K km/s. Three of these six have never before been observed in a CO line, while the others now have much more stringent upper limits. For the very low metallicity galaxy Leo A, we do not confirm a previously reported detection in CO, and the limits are consistent with another recent nondetection. We combine these new observations with data from the literature to form a sample of dwarf galaxies which all have CO observations and measured oxygen abundances. No known galaxies with 12+log(O/H) < 7.9 (Z < 0.1 solar) have been detected in CO. Most of the star-forming galaxies with higher (12+log(O/H) > 8.1) metallicities are detected at similar or higher I_CO surface brightnesses. The data are consistent with a strong dependence of the I_CO/M_H_2 = X_CO conversion factor on ambient metallicity. The strikingly low upper limits on some metal-poor galaxies lead us to predict that the conversion factor is non-linear, increasing sharply below approximately 1/10 of the solar metallicity (12+log(O/H) < 7.9).Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables. Accepted for publication in AJ Tables replaced -- now formated for landscape orientatio

Scrutinizing the impact of policy instruments on adoption of agricultural conservation practices using Bayesian expert models

Policy instruments—such as regulation, financial incentives, and agricultural extension—are commonly applied by governments to promote sustainable agricultural practices and tackle ecosystem degradation. Despite substantial investment, little data are available to gauge the impact of evolving policy mixes. We constructed a Bayesian network model to explore relationships between pol-icy instruments, contextual factors, and adoption. Applying a series of scenarios, we present examples of how different instruments influence adoption and how their effectiveness is shaped by contextual factors. Scenarios highlight that the effect of policy instruments is often modest, and constrained by diverse practice and population characteristics. These findings allow us to reflect on the role of policy instruments, and the conditions necessary to support practice change. For example, our findings raise questions about the role of financial benefits versus financial capacity, and highlight the potential importance of concepts such as mental bandwidth in shaping both motivation and capacity to adopt

Improving Predictions for Helium Emission Lines

We have combined the detailed He I recombination model of Smits with the collisional transitions of Sawey & Berrington in order to produce new accurate helium emissivities that include the effects of collisional excitation from both the 2 (3)S and 2 (1) S levels. We present a grid of emissivities for a range of temperature and densities along with analytical fits and error estimates. Fits accurate to within 1% are given for the emissivities of the brightest lines over a restricted range for estimates of primordial helium abundance. We characterize the analysis uncertainties associated with uncertainties in temperature, density, fitting functions, and input atomic data. We estimate that atomic data uncertainties alone may limit abundance estimates to an accuracy of 1.5%; systematic errors may be greater than this. This analysis uncertainty must be incorporated when attempting to make high accuracy estimates of the helium abundance. For example, in recent determinations of the primordial helium abundance, uncertainties in the input atomic data have been neglected.Comment: ApJ, accepte

Evaluation of the INCREMENT-CPE, Pitt Bacteremia and qPitt Scores in Patients with Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Infections Treated with Ceftazidime–Avibactam

Background The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of the INCREMENT-CPE (ICS), Pitt bacteremia score (PBS) and qPitt for mortality among patients treated with ceftazidime–avibactam for carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) infections. Methods Retrospective, multicenter, cohort study of patients with CRE infections treated with ceftazidime–avibactam between 2015 and 2019. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Predictive performance was determined by assessing discrimination, calibration and precision. Results In total, 109 patients were included. Thirty-day mortality occurred in 18 (16.5%) patients. There were no significant differences in discrimination of the three scores [area under the curve (AUC) ICS 0.7039, 95% CI 0.5848–0.8230, PBS 0.6893, 95% CI 0.5709–0.8076, and qPitt 0.6847, 95% CI 0.5671–0.8023; P > 0.05 all pairwise comparisons]. All scores showed adequate calibration and precision. When dichotomized at the optimal cut-points of 11, 3, and 2 for the ICS, PBS, and qPitt, respectively, all scores had NPV > 90% at the expense of low PPV. Patients in the high-risk groups had a relative risk for mortality of 3.184 (95% CI 1.35–8.930), 3.068 (95% CI 1.094–8.606), and 2.850 (95% CI 1.016–7.994) for the dichotomized ICS, PBS, and qPitt, scores respectively. Treatment-related variables (early active antibiotic therapy, combination antibiotics and renal ceftazidime–avibactam dose adjustment) were not associated with mortality after controlling for the risk scores. Conclusions In patients treated with ceftazidime–avibactam for CRE infections, mortality risk scores demonstrated variable performance. Modifications to scoring systems to more accurately predict outcomes in the era of novel antibiotics are warranted

Observational Constraints on the Molecular Gas Content in Nearby Starburst Dwarf Galaxies

Using star formation histories derived from optically resolved stellar populations in nineteen nearby starburst dwarf galaxies observed with the Hubble Space Telescope, we measure the stellar mass surface densities of stars newly formed in the bursts. By assuming a star formation efficiency (SFE), we then calculate the inferred gas surface densities present at the onset of the starbursts. Assuming a SFE of 1%, as is often assumed in normal star-forming galaxies, and assuming that the gas was purely atomic, translates to very high HI surface densities (~10^2-10^3 Msun pc^-2), which are much higher than have been observed in dwarf galaxies. This implies either higher values of SFE in these dwarf starburst galaxies or the presence of significant amounts of H_2 in dwarfs (or both). Raising the assumed SFEs to 10% or greater (in line with observations of more massive starbursts associated with merging galaxies), still results in HI surface densities higher than observed in 10 galaxies. Thus, these observations appear to require that a significant fraction of the gas in these dwarf starbursts galaxies was in the molecular form at the onset of the bursts. Our results imply molecular gas column densities in the range 10^19-10^21 cm^-2 for the sample. In those galaxies where CO observations have been made, these densities correspond to values of the CO-H_2 conversion factor (X_CO) in the range >3-80x10^20 cm^-2 (K km s^-1)^-1, or up to 40x greater than Galactic X_CO values.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, 2 table