28 research outputs found

    Bilateral Harmonization of EC and U.S. Agricultural Policies

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    Agricultural policies in both Europe and the United States provide commodities with an excessively high and distorted pattern of support. The economic interdependencies of the policies give rise to adverse fiscal and economic costs, which are viewed as disharmonies in the existing policy measures both within and between the two regions. Unilateral and simultaneous EC and U.S. policy changes are simulated with an international trade model. They are carried in three steps: (1) grains and feeds, (2) beef and dairy, and (3) sugar. Both cross effects and own effects are examined on typical policy targets. Results suggest that while world prices are sometimes drastically altered, the magnitude of cross effects is small and sometimes ambiguous compared to own effects. Feed livestock linkages are dominant factors in the economic rationale behind the interactions between countries. The case for cooperation in this trade game is, however, supported by the evidence from at least a budget point of view.Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,

    More evidence on technological catching-up in the manufacturing sector

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    Production frontiers for the manufacturing sector are estimated to determine a “country specific” catching-up process of Total Factor Productivity (TFP).TFP gains are gauged at the manufacturing industry level for 14 OECD countries over the 1970-2001 period. Our TFP measure does not assume technical or allocative efficiency which are inherent drawbacks of usual TFP indices. We show that catching-up processes can be very different between sub-periods and across countries. A significant catching-up process was at work in the manufacturing sector between 1970 and 1986 then it overturned over the period 1987-2001. During the first sub-period, the speed of technological catching-up of the euro-zone countries is definitely higher than those of the other European or OECD nations whereas the divergence noted in second sub-period has the same order of magnitude among the three groups.Catching-up; TFP change index; Technology adoption; Production Frontier

    What are the long-term drivers of food prices? Investigating improvements in the accuracy of prediction intervals for the forecast of food prices

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    Over the last few years, the prices of the main agricultural raw materials have been highly volatile. The situation is unprecedented, both in the magnitude of the upward and downward volatility observed, and in the number of agricultural commodities affected. Various factors are contributing to these contrasting shifts: the role of emerging countries, changing dietary habits, an increase in energy demand related to the boom in biofuels, adverse weather conditions and speculation. In this paper we try to capture long-term relationships between crop prices and crude oil price using a partial equilibrium and times series method. The study finds little empirical evidence that the crude oil price have a significant influence on the variation of major vegetable crops pricesPartial equilibrium modeling, Forecasting cointegration, Demand and Price Analysis, Q11, Q13, Q42,

    Quelle est la valeur du coefficient d'Okun? Une analyse de type meta-regression

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    We selected a sample of 522 estimates of the Okun’s Law coeffi cient from literature to uncover the reasons for the diff erences in empirical results across studies and to estimate the ‘true’ OLC with meta-regression methodology. We show that there is evidence of both type I and type II bias amongst the papers studied. Taking into account those biases and then evaluating the 95% confi dence intervals of the true eff ects estimated with various methodologies, we fi nd that the estimated true OLC vary between a minimum value of –0,40 and a maximum value of –0,12. Moreover, the estimated OLCs are signifi cantly larger (in absolute value) with models using regional data or a linear time trend fi ltering procedure. On the other hand we fi nd that lower absolute values of the OLC are obtained with models using quarterly (or semestrial) data bases, data for developing countries, or non-linear models

    Testing for Convergence of the Okun’s Law Coefficient in Europe

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    A large number of papers have considered the question of whether the European Union (EU) is an optimal currency area by analysing either the dispersion (and/or the correlation) of observable variables such as output, output per head, and GDP growth rates or the dispersion (and/or the correlation) of unobservable variables such as demand and supply shocks. This approach typically leads to a division of countries between a core and a periphery. We move to a quantitative approach that focuses on asymmetry stemming from differences in the way countries react to symmetric euro area shocks. Without convergence of macroeconomic “parameters” representative of the nature of adjustment mechanisms, even a common shock to the union can lead to different macro-economic consequences across the EU members and, eventually, to the need for more or less co-ordinated specific policies. In this paper, we test for the presence of convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient (OLC hereafter). This constitutes one of the main macro-economic parameters underlying the sensitivity of unemployment variations to fluctuations in economic activity

    A Cross-country Analysis of the Okun’s Law Coefficient Convergence in Europe

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    In this paper, we examine whether evidence is consistent with convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient (OLC) among several alternative groupings of European economies. A two step empirical strategy is employed. The first step obtains rolling regression estimates of the OLC for individual European countries. In the second step, we examine how the crosscountry variance of the OLC evolves over the decade until 2002 in the selected country groupings. We find evidence consistent with convergence of the OLC among northern European countries, and among countries with centralised wage bargaining, but an absence of convergence in other country groups

    How Do Technical Change and Technological Distance Influence the Size of the Okun's Law Coefficient?

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    How does technical change influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient? Using a nonlinear version of Okun’s Law augmented with technical change and technological distance, we show that the impact of output movements on unemployment variations is influenced by the imitation or innovation origins of technical chang

    A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe

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    The paper examines whether or not evidence is consistent with convergence of the Okun's Law coefficient (OLC) among several alternative groupings of European economies. A two-step empirical strategy is employed. The first step obtains rolling regression estimates of the OLC for individual European countries. The second step examines how the cross-country variance of the OLC evolves over the decade until 2002 in the selected country groupings. Evidence is found consistent with convergence of the OLC among northern European countries, and among countries with centralized wage bargaining, but an absence of convergence in other country groups.

    Short-run dynamics of feed ingredient prices facing the EC: a causal analysis

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    This paper attempts to (1) shed some light on the EC- US controversy concerning the effect of the EC oilseeds market regime on EC imports of US soybean products, essentially soy meal, and (2) provide information on another EC- US controversy: Does corn-gluten feed behave as a substitute for (EC view) or a complement to (US view) feed grains, and do EC corn-gluten feed imports displace EC grain production or not? By using a constrained vectorial autoregressive model of Rotterdam prices for soy meal, sunflower meal, rape meal, corn-gluten feed and cassava, we show that (1) the decrease in EC imports of US soymeal are mot mainly caused by the EC milling subsidies, and (2) corngluten feed is both a substitute for soymeal due to its protein content and a substitute for cassava (and grains) due to its energy content: US and EC views are only partial views
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