Intra-Asia Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra-Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods

This paper examines the impact of intra-Asia exchange rate volatility on intra-Asia trade in primary goods, intermediate goods, equipment goods, and consumption goods from 1980 to 2009. For Asia, the evidence shows that as intraregional exchange rate volatility increases, intraregional exports in these goods fall. This adverse impact is even more pronounced in the sub-region of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 comprising ASEAN member countries plus the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China; and especially among intermediate and equipment exports. Again, the impact magnifies in an even smaller sub-group excluding the smaller ASEAN economies. These results underline the significant impact of exchange rate volatility on the region's production networks. For South Asia, however, exchange rate volatility appears to have a positive impact on exports. Still, caution is warranted given that South Asian economies trade relatively little with each other

Crises in Asia: Recovery and Policy Responses

The goal of this paper is to provide stylized facts on recovery from economic downturns and to evaluate the role of macroeconomic policies in promoting recovery. In particular, we examine gross domestic product (GDP) recessions and financial downturns (credit contractions and stock price declines) using data from 21 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies and 21 developing Asian economies. We find, in general, recovery from a GDP recession in Asian economies is somewhat slower than in OECD economies. However, recovery from a financial downturn is not much different between Asian and OECD economies. We also find OECD economies have been more active and effective in using counter-cyclical policies than Asian economies in the face of GDP recessions and financial downturns. Recent evidence, however, suggests Asian economies may have better success in the current global crisis.Recession; Financial Crisis; Recovery; Policy Response; Asia

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Markets in Small Open Economies: More or Less Effective During the Global Financial Crisis?

This paper estimates the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates and stock markets for eight small open economies: Australia, Canada, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. On average across these countries, a one percentage point surprise rise in official interest rates leads to a 1% appreciation of the exchange rate and a 1% fall in stock market indices. The effect on exchange rates is notably weaker in the non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries with a managed float. For the OECD countries, there is no robust evidence of a change in the effect of policy during the global financial crisis. For the non-OECD countries, there is some evidence of a stronger effect of policy on stock markets during the crisis, although further research is needed to investigate whether this is a result of measurement issues.Monetary policy effectiveness; exchange rate; stock prices; crisis; Asian economies

Exporting and Innovation: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence from the People's Republic of China

This paper investigates how exporting affects firm innovation. We embed innovation into a firm heterogeneity model with productivity, where in equilibrium the model shows that exporters invest more in innovation, such as research and development (R&D), than non-exporters. Using firm-level data from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), we apply the Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) method of estimating firm productivity and matching econometrics to control for endogeneity. The results show, on average, in contrast to non-exporters, exporters increase their R&D intensity by more than 5%, raise their R&D expenditure by more than 33%, and are 4% more likely to engage in R&D activity. In addition, we find exporting to have a smaller impact on innovation among firms that export processed goods, specifically, those in the electronics sectors, located in coastal provinces, and foreign-owned

Crises in Asia: Recovery and Policy Responses

The goal of this paper is to provide stylized facts on recovery from economic downturns and to evaluate the role of macroeconomic policies in promoting recovery. In particular, we examine gross domestic product (GDP) recessions and financial downturns (credit contractions and stock price declines) using data from 21 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies and 21 developing Asian economies. We find, in general, recovery from a GDP recession in Asian economies is somewhat slower than in OECD economies. However, recovery from a financial downturn is not much different between Asian and OECD economies. We also find OECD economies have been more active and effective in using counter-cyclical policies than Asian economies in the face of GDP recessions and financial downturns. Recent evidence, however, suggests Asian economies may have better success in the current global crisis

Changing Impact of Fiscal Policy on Selected ASEAN Countries

This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Through a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model, government spending is found to have weak and largely insignificant impact on output, while taxes are found to have outcomes contrary to conventional theory. Extensions using a time-varying VAR model reveal the impact of taxes on output mainly reflect heightened concerns over public finances amid the Asian financial crisis and the recent global financial crisis. On the other hand, for Singapore and Thailand, there is evidence that government spending can at times be useful as a tool for countercyclical policy.ASEAN; fiscal policy; structural VAR; time-varying VAR

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Markets in Small Open Economies: More or Less Effective During the Global Financial Crisis?

This paper estimates the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates and stock markets for eight small open economies: Australia, Canada, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. On average across these countries, a one percentage point surprise rise in official interest rates leads to a 1% appreciation of the exchange rate and a 1% fall in stock market indices. The effect on exchange rates is notably weaker in the non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries with a managed float. For the OECD countries, there is no robust evidence of a change in the effect of policy during the global financial crisis. For the non-OECD countries, there is some evidence of a stronger effect of policy on stock markets during the crisis, although further research is needed to investigate whether this is a result of measurement issues

The Nexus between Antidumping Petitions and Exports during the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence on the People’s Republic of China

This paper quantifies how the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) export volume to its major trading partners during the global financial crisis affects the antidumping (AD) petitions filed by the trading partners against the PRC. Focusing on the AD petitions at the Harmonized System (HS) Code 8-digit level and the PRC’s exports at the HS 2-digit level, we construct three instrument variables at the same HS level for export volume. These instruments—documents required, time taken, and container charges incurred for goods traded across borders—represent trade costs obtained from the World Bank’s Doing Business Project. We find rising exports from the PRC lead to rising AD petitions against the country. Instrumental variable estimates indicate that a 1 percentage point rise in the PRC’s export volume raises the number of AD petitions against the country by about 0.3 percentage point, and the probability of receiving AD petitions by 3.6 %. These estimates are about 10 times larger than those found in ordinary least square regressions. Their quantitative significance underlines why it is important to consider the issue of export endogeneity in the estimation. Moreover, it highlights the failure of the current trade statistics to account for the true value-added of traded goods, and how this has particularly disadvantaged the PRC, given its position as the factory of the world

The Impact of ACFTA on People’s Republic of China-ASEAN Trade: Estimates Based on an Extended Gravity Model for Component Trade

This paper uses an extended gravity model to shed light on the impact of the free trade area agreement between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the members' trade flows and trade patterns. New determinants that capture the rising importance of global production sharing and intraregional trade in parts and components in East Asia are proposed. Results from the extended gravity model show that the free trade agreement leads to substantially higher bilateral trade between ASEAN and the PRC, more than what a conventional gravity model predicts. The increase is concentrated in the ASEAN countries with stronger industrial linkages with the PRC

Intra-Asia Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra-Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods

This paper examines the impact of intra-Asia exchange rate volatility on intra-Asia trade in primary goods, intermediate goods, equipment goods, and consumption goods from 1980 to 2009. For Asia, the evidence shows that as intraregional exchange rate volatility increases, intraregional exports in these goods fall. This adverse impact is even more pronounced in the sub-region of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 comprising ASEAN member countries plus the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China; and especially among intermediate and equipment exports. Again, the impact magnifies in an even smaller sub-group excluding the smaller ASEAN economies. These results underline the significant impact of exchange rate volatility on the region's production networks. For South Asia, however, exchange rate volatility appears to have a positive impact on exports. Still, caution is warranted given that South Asian economies trade relatively little with each other.exchange rate volatility; trade; ASEAN; East Asia