Non-communicable diseases in the world over the past century: a secondary data analysis

IntroductionWe analyzed the changes in the top 10 non-communicable diseases (NCDs) over the past century across the World Health Organization (WHO) regions.Materials and methodsThe data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies. After we accessed this source, all NCDs were sorted according to their prevalence in 2019, and the 10 most common NCDs were selected. Then, the incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of these 10 NCDs were compared to the rates in 2000.ResultsDiabetes and kidney disease had the highest increase in incidence (49.4%) and prevalence (28%) in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Substance use disorders had a huge increase (138%) in the mortality rates among women in the Americas region. On the other hand, women in Southeast Asia experienced the greatest decrease in incidence (−19.8%), prevalence (−15.8%), and mortality rates (−66%).ConclusionIn recent years, nearly all NCDs have shown an increase, yet mortality rates have declined across all regions. Lifestyle can be a major cause of this increase, but advancements in health and medical services, such as screening and treatment, have played a crucial role in improving survival rates

Distribution of Extensively Drug-resistant Tuberculosis in the World Health Organization Regions of the World During 1990-2019

The rise of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) has become a significant public health concern, representing a threat to global TB control programs. Extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) accounts for approximately 9% of all drug-resistant cases, and its incidence has been increasing. In this study, we aimed to investigate the burden of TB during 1990-2019 in six regions of the World Health Organization according to sex. Geographical distribution and trend of incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLL) from mortality, and years lived with disability (YLD) of XDR-TB were evaluated according to sex using geographic maps and trend plots. In both sex groups, the rate of the four indicators were the highest in Europe and the lowest in America (values in the first quartile). In Africa, the incidence, prevalence, YLD values fell in the first quartile. The trend of incidence, prevalence, and YLD generally increased in all the regions. However, a decreasing trend has been observed in recent years in the Western Pacific region and Europe. Additionally, in general, YLL exhibited a stable or decreasing trend in the last few years in all the regions. The strategies that have achieved a decrease in trend in some years should be further analyzed by policymakers to identify appropriate solutions to control XDR-TB. Furthermore, Europe, South-East Asia, and the Eastern Mediterranean region require special attention. Additionally, implementation of effective strategies can greatly improve TB control in the world

The trend of marriage, childbearing, and divorce and its determinants of socioeconomic factors on divorce in Yazd province 2016-2021: A cross-sectional study

Background: In recent decades, families and their stability as an important social institution have changed significantly. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the marriage trends, childbearing, and divorce changes in Yazd province from 2016 to 2021 to estimate the effect of socioeconomic factors on divorce. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was done in 2 phases. In the first phase, an ecological (time trend) was conducted to investigate the 5 yr trend in the occurrence of marriage, childbearing, and divorce, as well as the factors affecting the occurrence of divorce in the second phase. For the second phase of the study, 600 participants were selected. 300 divorced and 300 married applicants were chosen between 2016 and 2021. A binary logistic regression model was used to find the related factors affecting the occurrence of divorce. Results: The results showed a declining marriage (p = 0.05) and childbearing trend (p = 0.84), as well as an increasing trend in divorces (p = 0.02) in Yazd. Logistic regression analysis showed that college education (OR = 0.22, CI: 0.116-0.430, p < 0.001) and being self-employed (OR = 0.48, CI: 0.255-0.934, p = 0.03) could reduce the odds of divorce. In addition, nonresidents (OR = 2.1, CI: 1.314-3.562, p < 0.001), with > 10-yr age differences (OR = 3.8, CI: 1.803-8.213, p < 0.001) or the woman being older than her husband (OR = 3.4, CI: 1.981-5.848, p < 0.001) could increase the odds of divorce. Conclusion: Our results confirmed that a combination of socioeconomic characteristics affects the stability of family institutions. Key words: Family, Marriage, Childbearing, Divorce, Socioeconomic factors

Machine learning techniques to identify risk factors of breast cancer among women in Mashhad, Iran

ABSTRACT Background: Low survival rates of breast cancer in developing countries are mainly due to the lack of early detection plans and adequate diagnosis and treatment facilities. Objectives: This study aimed to apply machine learning techniques to recognize the most important breast cancer risk factors. Methods: This case-control study included women aged 17-75 years who were referred to medical centers affiliated with Mashhad University of Medical Science between March 21, 2015, and March 19, 2016. The study had two datasets: one with 516 samples (258 cases and 258 controls) and another with 606 samples (303 cases and 303 controls). Written informed consent has been observed. Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were applied using R studio software. Results: Regarding the DT and RF, the most important features that impact breast cancer were family cancer, individual history of breast cancer, biopsy sampling, rarely consumption of a dairy, fruit, and vegetable meal, while in PCA and LR these features including family cancer, pregnancy number, pregnancy tendency, abortion, first menstruation, the age of first childbirth and childbirth number. Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms can be used to extract the most important factors in the diagnosis of breast cancer in developing countries such as Iran. Keywords: Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Principal Component Analysis, Breast cancer&nbsp

Bacteriospermia and its association with seminal fluid parameters and infertility in infertile men, Kerman, Iran: A cross-sectional study

Background: The role of genital Ureaplasma species, genital Mycoplasma (M) species, and Chlamydia (C.) trachomatis, the most prevalent sexually transmitted bacteria, in male infertility are still not clear. Different reports about the impact of these bacteria on semen quality are controversial. Objective: This study was proposed to determine the frequency of bacteriospermia in men and investigate the relationship between the presence of these bacteria and semen quality using molecular assay. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 200 semen samples obtained from men attending the research and clinical centers for fertility in Kerman, Iran, between July and December 2019 were analyzed for semen volume, progressive motility, nonprogressive motility, total progressive motility, and viability according to the World Health Organization guidelines. The polymerase chain reaction was used for the detection of related bacteria. Results: The mean values of volume, progressive motility, non-progressive motility, total progressive motility, and viability were significantly lower in infertile men (p < 0.001). Statistically significant correlations were observed between the presence of M. genitalium and progressive sperm motility, M. hominis and semen volume, Ureaplasma parvum and the sperm normal form, and C. trachomatis and the sperm progressive motility and viability. Logistic regression analysis showed that M. genitalium (OR = 8.06, p < 0.001) and C. trachomatis (OR = 16, p = 0.01) were significantly associated with male infertility. Conclusion: During the infertility assessment, clinicians should consider the role of C. trachomatis and M. genitalium in male infertility. Screening test particularly for asymptomatic individuals is recommended. Key words: Chlamydia trachomatis, Infertility, Mycoplasma, Semen analysis, Ureaplasma

Estimating the Adverse Reaction Among Iranian Blood Donors:The First National Report

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence of reactions caused by blood donations in Iran as well as exploring three potential scenarios of the worst, moderate, and the best situations for adverse reactions among Iranian blood donations by specifying the under-reporting rate. Methods: There are two different designs; first, the ecological study was coducted to estimate the blood donation adverse effects by using the data registered in the donor vigilance part of Iranian Blood Transfusion Organization (IBTO). Second, the cross-sectional study was conducted to estimate under-reporting in the data. For the cross-sectional study, 2408 donors were selected randomly in three cities. Results: In general, based on the estimations of this study, adverse reactions to blood donation in Iran is 2%(CI 95%, 1.4-2.6%). Local and systemic reactions estimated are 1.7%(CI 95%, 1.2-2.2) and 0.3%(0.1-0.5), respectively. Based on the national report, in general, adverse reactions to blood donation in Iran is 0.5(CI 95% 0.4-0.6). Local and systemic reactions estimated are 0.38%(CI 95% 0.28-0.48) and 0.03%(0.0.02-0.04), respectively. Conclusion: Adverse reactions may vary from region to region in Iran, but in total, there is a lot of under-reporting in the incidence of adverse reactions to blood donation in Iran, most of which are related to local reactions.</p

Estimating the Adverse Reaction Among Iranian Blood Donors:The First National Report

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence of reactions caused by blood donations in Iran as well as exploring three potential scenarios of the worst, moderate, and the best situations for adverse reactions among Iranian blood donations by specifying the under-reporting rate. Methods: There are two different designs; first, the ecological study was coducted to estimate the blood donation adverse effects by using the data registered in the donor vigilance part of Iranian Blood Transfusion Organization (IBTO). Second, the cross-sectional study was conducted to estimate under-reporting in the data. For the cross-sectional study, 2408 donors were selected randomly in three cities. Results: In general, based on the estimations of this study, adverse reactions to blood donation in Iran is 2%(CI 95%, 1.4-2.6%). Local and systemic reactions estimated are 1.7%(CI 95%, 1.2-2.2) and 0.3%(0.1-0.5), respectively. Based on the national report, in general, adverse reactions to blood donation in Iran is 0.5(CI 95% 0.4-0.6). Local and systemic reactions estimated are 0.38%(CI 95% 0.28-0.48) and 0.03%(0.0.02-0.04), respectively. Conclusion: Adverse reactions may vary from region to region in Iran, but in total, there is a lot of under-reporting in the incidence of adverse reactions to blood donation in Iran, most of which are related to local reactions.</p

Population Size Estimation of Tramadol Misusers in Urban Population in Iran: Synthesis of Methods and Results

Background: Estimating the population who use drugs is essential for planning, monitoring, and evaluation of substance use prevention and treatment. This study aims to estimate the population who misuse tramadol in urban population in Iran. Methods: We used the wisdom of the experts (WOTE) and network scale-up (NSU) methods to calculate the population of tramadol misusers in 10 provincial capitals of Iran, in 2016. The WOTE was conducted among pharmacists in drugstores and the personnel of traditional medicinal herbs stores. They guessed the best estimation of tramadol misusers population in their cities. The NSU method was conducted among the general population and participants were questioned about ever and daily, non-medical use of tramadol during last 12 months in their network. The median of the methods was used to calculate the proportion of the adult population (15-49 years old). Findings: The population size of tramadol misusers in studied cities was 83300 [95% uncertainty limits (UL): 47960-256220]. This corresponded to 6.6 per 1000 (95% UL: 3.88-20.30) of the 15-49-year-old population. The projected number of tramadol misusers for all 31 provincial capitals was 118290 (95% UL: 68100-363130840) and 212440 (95% UL: 122310-653410) for all urban areas. NSU also estimated the number of people who misuse tramadol on daily basis. These numbers were 52000 (95% UL: 19940-176570) for studied cities, 73840 (95% UL: 28320-250740) for all 31 provincial capital cities, and 132610 (95% UL: 50860-450310) for all urban areas in Iran. Conclusion: This study presents information on high prevalence of tramadol misuse in urban population. We need national control measures and demand reduction programs to control tramadol misuse

The unfinished agenda of communicable diseases among children and adolescents before the COVID-19 pandemic, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Communicable disease control has long been a focus of global health policy. There have been substantial reductions in the burden and mortality of communicable diseases among children younger than 5 years, but we know less about this burden in older children and adolescents, and it is unclear whether current programmes and policies remain aligned with targets for intervention. This knowledge is especially important for policy and programmes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to use the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to systematically characterise the burden of communicable diseases across childhood and adolescence. METHODS: In this systematic analysis of the GBD study from 1990 to 2019, all communicable diseases and their manifestations as modelled within GBD 2019 were included, categorised as 16 subgroups of common diseases or presentations. Data were reported for absolute count, prevalence, and incidence across measures of cause-specific mortality (deaths and years of life lost), disability (years lived with disability [YLDs]), and disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) for children and adolescents aged 0-24 years. Data were reported across the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and across time (1990-2019), and for 204 countries and territories. For HIV, we reported the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) as a measure of health system performance. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 3·0 million deaths and 30·0 million years of healthy life lost to disability (as measured by YLDs), corresponding to 288·4 million DALYs from communicable diseases among children and adolescents globally (57·3% of total communicable disease burden across all ages). Over time, there has been a shift in communicable disease burden from young children to older children and adolescents (largely driven by the considerable reductions in children younger than 5 years and slower progress elsewhere), although children younger than 5 years still accounted for most of the communicable disease burden in 2019. Disease burden and mortality were predominantly in low-SDI settings, with high and high-middle SDI settings also having an appreciable burden of communicable disease morbidity (4·0 million YLDs in 2019 alone). Three cause groups (enteric infections, lower-respiratory-tract infections, and malaria) accounted for 59·8% of the global communicable disease burden in children and adolescents, with tuberculosis and HIV both emerging as important causes during adolescence. HIV was the only cause for which disease burden increased over time, particularly in children and adolescents older than 5 years, and especially in females. Excess MIRs for HIV were observed for males aged 15-19 years in low-SDI settings. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis supports continued policy focus on enteric infections and lower-respiratory-tract infections, with orientation to children younger than 5 years in settings of low socioeconomic development. However, efforts should also be targeted to other conditions, particularly HIV, given its increased burden in older children and adolescents. Older children and adolescents also experience a large burden of communicable disease, further highlighting the need for efforts to extend beyond the first 5 years of life. Our analysis also identified substantial morbidity caused by communicable diseases affecting child and adolescent health across the world. FUNDING: The Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Centre for Research Excellence for Driving Investment in Global Adolescent Health and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions