373 research outputs found

    Andrade, Omori and Time-to-failure Laws from Thermal Noise in Material Rupture

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    Using the simplest possible ingredients of a rupture model with thermal fluctuations, we provide an analytical theory of three ubiquitous empirical observations obtained in creep (constant applied stress) experiments: the initial Andrade-like and Omori-like 1/t1/t decay of the rate of deformation and of fiber ruptures and the 1/(tct)1/(t_c-t) critical time-to-failure behavior of acoustic emissions just prior to the macroscopic rupture. The lifetime of the material is controlled by a thermally activated Arrhenius nucleation process, describing the cross-over between these two regimes. Our results give further credit to the idea proposed by Ciliberto et al. that the tiny thermal fluctuations may actually play an essential role in macroscopic deformation and rupture processes at room temperature. We discover a new re-entrant effect of the lifetime as a function of quenched disorder amplitude.Comment: 4 pages with 1 figur

    Bath's law Derived from the Gutenberg-Richter law and from Aftershock Properties

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    The empirical Bath's law states that the average difference in magnitude between a mainshock and its largest aftershock is 1.2, regardless of the mainshock magnitude. Following Vere-Jones [1969] and Console et al. [2003], we show that the origin of Bath's law is to be found in the selection procedure used to define mainshocks and aftershocks rather than in any difference in the mechanisms controlling the magnitude of the mainshock and of the aftershocks. We use the ETAS model of seismicity, which provides a more realistic model of aftershocks, based on (i) a universal Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law for all earthquakes, and on (ii) the increase of the number of aftershocks with the mainshock magnitude. Using numerical simulations of the ETAS model, we show that this model is in good agreement with Bath's law in a certain range of the model parameters.Comment: major revisions, in press in Geophys. Res. Let

    Correlations and invariance of seismicity under renormalization-group transformations

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    The effect of transformations analogous to those of the real-space renormalization group are analyzed for the temporal occurrence of earthquakes. The distribution of recurrence times turns out to be invariant under such transformations, for which the role of the correlations between the magnitudes and the recurrence times are fundamental. A general form for the distribution is derived imposing only the self-similarity of the process, which also yields a scaling relation between the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, the exponent characterizing the correlations, and the recurrence-time exponent. This approach puts the study of the structure of seismicity in the context of critical phenomena.Comment: Short paper. I'll be grateful to get some feedbac

    Anomalous Power Law Distribution of Total Lifetimes of Branching Processes Relevant to Earthquakes

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    We consider a branching model of triggered seismicity, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (``aftershocks''). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any earthquake (``productivity'' or ``fertility''), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime where the distribution of fertilities μ\mu is characterized by a power law 1/μ1+γ\sim 1/\mu^{1+\gamma} and the bare Omori law for the memory of previous triggering mothers decays slowly as 1/t1+θ\sim 1/t^{1+\theta}, with 0<θ<10 < \theta <1 relevant for earthquakes. Using the tool of generating probability functions and a quasistatic approximation which is shown to be exact asymptotically for large durations, we show that the density distribution of total aftershock lifetimes scales as 1/t1+θ/γ\sim 1/t^{1+\theta/\gamma} when the average branching ratio is critical (n=1n=1). The coefficient 1<γ=b/α<21<\gamma = b/\alpha<2 quantifies the interplay between the exponent b1b \approx 1 of the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution 10bm \sim 10^{-bm} and the increase 10αm\sim 10^{\alpha m} of the number of aftershocks with the mainshock magnitude mm (productivity) with α0.8\alpha \approx 0.8. More generally, our results apply to any stochastic branching process with a power-law distribution of offsprings per mother and a long memory.Comment: 16 pages + 4 figure

    Acoustic Emission Monitoring of the Syracuse Athena Temple: Scale Invariance in the Timing of Ruptures

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    We perform a comparative statistical analysis between the acoustic-emission time series from the ancient Greek Athena temple in Syracuse and the sequence of nearby earthquakes. We find an apparent association between acoustic-emission bursts and the earthquake occurrence. The waiting-time distributions for acoustic-emission and earthquake time series are described by a unique scaling law indicating self-similarity over a wide range of magnitude scales. This evidence suggests a correlation between the aging process of the temple and the local seismic activit

    "Universal" Distribution of Inter-Earthquake Times Explained

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    We propose a simple theory for the ``universal'' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in the physics of foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. Our theoretical calculations provide good fits to the data and show that universality is only approximate. We conclude that the distributions of inter-event times do not reveal more information than what is already known from the Gutenberg-Richter and the Omori power laws. Our results reinforces the view that triggering of earthquakes by other earthquakes is a key physical mechanism to understand seismicity.Comment: 4 pages with two figure

    Universal mean moment rate profiles of earthquake ruptures

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    Earthquake phenomenology exhibits a number of power law distributions including the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics and the Omori law for aftershock decay rates. In search for a basic model that renders correct predictions on long spatio-temporal scales, we discuss results associated with a heterogeneous fault with long range stress-transfer interactions. To better understand earthquake dynamics we focus on faults with Gutenberg-Richter like earthquake statistics and develop two universal scaling functions as a stronger test of the theory against observations than mere scaling exponents that have large error bars. Universal shape profiles contain crucial information on the underlying dynamics in a variety of systems. As in magnetic systems, we find that our analysis for earthquakes provides a good overall agreement between theory and observations, but with a potential discrepancy in one particular universal scaling function for moment-rates. The results reveal interesting connections between the physics of vastly different systems with avalanche noise.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figure

    A model for the distribution of aftershock waiting times

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    In this work the distribution of inter-occurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the generalized Omori's law for the decay of aftershocks is used as a time-dependent rate in the NHP process. The analytically derived distribution of inter-occurrence times is applied to several major aftershock sequences in California to confirm the validity of the proposed hypothesis.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

    Market dynamics immediately before and after financial shocks: quantifying the Omori, productivity and Bath laws

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    We study the cascading dynamics immediately before and immediately after 219 market shocks. We define the time of a market shock T_{c} to be the time for which the market volatility V(T_{c}) has a peak that exceeds a predetermined threshold. The cascade of high volatility "aftershocks" triggered by the "main shock" is quantitatively similar to earthquakes and solar flares, which have been described by three empirical laws --- the Omori law, the productivity law, and the Bath law. We analyze the most traded 531 stocks in U.S. markets during the two-year period 2001-2002 at the 1-minute time resolution. We find quantitative relations between (i) the "main shock" magnitude M \equiv \log V(T_{c}) occurring at the time T_{c} of each of the 219 "volatility quakes" analyzed, and (ii) the parameters quantifying the decay of volatility aftershocks as well as the volatility preshocks. We also find that stocks with larger trading activity react more strongly and more quickly to market shocks than stocks with smaller trading activity. Our findings characterize the typical volatility response conditional on M, both at the market and the individual stock scale. We argue that there is potential utility in these three statistical quantitative relations with applications in option pricing and volatility trading.Comment: 16 pages, double column, 13 figures, 1 Table; Changes made in Version 2 in response to referee comment
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