Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two partners

We examine the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy taking into account the employment (in)stability of both partners in a couple. We use data from four waves of the Italian section of the EU-SILC (Statistics on Income and Living Condition), 2004-2007, accounting for its longitudinal nature. Overall, our results suggest that Italian couples are neither fully traditional nor entirely modern: the "first pillar" (i.e., a male partner with a stable and well-paid job) is still crucial in directing fertility decisions, because, in our interpretation, it gives the household a feeling of (relative) economic security. But this "old" family typology is becoming rare. Increasingly, both partners are employed, and in this case the characteristics of their employment prove important. A permanent occupation for both partners is associated with higher fertility, while alternative job typologies for either of the two depress fertility.employment instability, first birth, income, Italy

Sex differences in mortality by ethnic background

In the Nordic countries the female survival advantage has been observed at least since the middle of the 18th century. The extent of the gender gap in mortality is varying substantially between countries. Denmark and Sweden are considered countries with a small gender gap in mortality. In this study we address whether the substantial differences in the gender gap that are observed between countries can also be observed for different immigrant groups. Previous research has indicated that migrants enjoy better health and lower mortality compared with the host population. Considering the healthy migrant effect and predominantly male migration from non-Western countries to Denmark and Sweden in 1960-70s, as well as high fertility in their female spouses, we expect to find even smaller sex differential mortality among migrants than in the ethnic Danish and Swedish populations. We use high-quality register data covering the whole Danish and Swedish population over several decades to address our research question.In the Nordic countries the female survival advantage has been observed at least since the middle of the 18th century. The extent of the gender gap in mortality is varying substantially between countries. Denmark and Sweden are considered countries with a small gender gap in mortality. In this study we address whether the substantial differences in the gender gap that are observed between countries can also be observed for different immigrant groups. Previous research has indicated that migrants enjoy better health and lower mortality compared with the host population. Considering the healthy migrant effect and predominantly male migration from non-Western countries to Denmark and Sweden in 1960-70s, as well as high fertility in their female spouses, we expect to find even smaller sex differential mortality among migrants than in the ethnic Danish and Swedish populations. We use high-quality register data covering the whole Danish and Swedish population over several decades to address our research question

Sex differences in mortality by ethnic background

In the Nordic countries the female survival advantage has been observed at least since the middle of the 18th century. The extent of the gender gap in mortality is varying substantially between countries. Denmark and Sweden are considered countries with a small gender gap in mortality. In this study we address whether the substantial differences in the gender gap that are observed between countries can also be observed for different immigrant groups. Previous research has indicated that migrants enjoy better health and lower mortality compared with the host population. Considering the healthy migrant effect and predominantly male migration from non-Western countries to Denmark and Sweden in 1960-70s, as well as high fertility in their female spouses, we expect to find even smaller sex differential mortality among migrants than in the ethnic Danish and Swedish populations. We use high-quality register data covering the whole Danish and Swedish population over several decades to address our research question.In the Nordic countries the female survival advantage has been observed at least since the middle of the 18th century. The extent of the gender gap in mortality is varying substantially between countries. Denmark and Sweden are considered countries with a small gender gap in mortality. In this study we address whether the substantial differences in the gender gap that are observed between countries can also be observed for different immigrant groups. Previous research has indicated that migrants enjoy better health and lower mortality compared with the host population. Considering the healthy migrant effect and predominantly male migration from non-Western countries to Denmark and Sweden in 1960-70s, as well as high fertility in their female spouses, we expect to find even smaller sex differential mortality among migrants than in the ethnic Danish and Swedish populations. We use high-quality register data covering the whole Danish and Swedish population over several decades to address our research question

Over-coverage in population registers leads to bias in demographic estimates.

Published online: 14 Nov 2019 Estimating the number of individuals living in a country is an essential task for demographers. This study assesses the potential bias in estimating the size of different migrant populations due to over-coverage in population registers. Over-coverage-individuals registered but not living in a country-is an increasingly pressing phenomenon however, there is no common understanding of how to deal with over-coverage in demographic research. This study examines different approaches to and improvements in over-coverage estimation using Swedish total population register data. We assess over-coverage levels across migrant groups, test how estimates of age-specific death and fertility rates are affected when adjusting for over-coverage, and examine whether over-coverage can explain part of the healthy migrant paradox. Our results confirm the existence of over-coverage and we find substantial changes in mortality and fertility rates, when adjusted, for people of migrating age. Accounting for over-coverage is particularly important for correctly estimating migrant fertility. Strategic Research Council of the Academy of Finland [293103] Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council [340-2013-5164] Swedish Research Council for Health, Working life and WelfareSwedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council for Health Working Life & Welfare (Forte

Against the grain: International migrants, the children of migrants and national life expectancy in Sweden, 1990–2019

International migrants and their children represent increasing shares of the populations of major host countries and have growing potential to affect estimates of national mortality. Yet, while many studies have observed mortality differences between migrants, their children, and the majority population, few have progressed beyond this point to quantify the actual impact of these differences upon national life expectancy levels. Studies that have, reveal that migrants increasingly enhance national life expectancy, but do not progress beyond a single average generational effect. Here, using established demographic methods, we aim to quantify and unpack the impact of migrants and the children of migrants on national life expectancy in Sweden, with emphasis on potential differences by age, generations, and migration background. Going “against the grain” relative to other countries, we reveal an initial negative effect of first-generation migrants on national life expectancy levels in Sweden, followed by a gradual waning and disappearance of this effect over time. This change is attributable to the transformation in origin composition of Sweden's migrant population from migrants born in Nordic countries (that have higher mortality than the majority population) to migrants born in non-Western countries (that have lower mortality than the majority population), particularly at working ages. For children of migrants, nearly all ages and migrant backgrounds contribute to an increasingly negative effect on national life expectancy over time. The unique and disparate mortality risks of migrants, the children of migrants, and the majority population suggest a need to monitor their mortality separately so as to maximise potential future gains in national life expectancy in Sweden

Future mortality in low-mortality countries

4802 This paper provides an overview of past and expected future trends in life expectancy in populations of today's low mortality countries. Because these populations previously experienced strong decreases in infant mortality, the future mortality trends will be driven mainly by mortality among the old and oldest-old. The paper gathers empirical background data and theoretical considerations about past and likely future determinants of mortality including smoking, obesity, biomedical progress, environmental changes and socioeconomic conditions. Based on this knowledge an internet expert survey and a meta-experts meeting were carried out to formulate expert-based assumptions for future trends in life expectancy. The presented evidence and the experts' assessments indicate that that the positive influences on human mortality and life expectancy will likely outweigh the negative risk factors and lead to further increases of life expectancy. Moreover, the paper concludes that the differences between countries are likely to narrow further in the future

Mortality inequalities at retirement age between migrants and non-migrants in Denmark and Sweden

Background: Denmark and Sweden index their statutory retirement ages to life expectancy. When lifespan increases, so does retirement age. This policy does not consider demographic heterogeneity in life expectancy, e.g., between migrants and non-migrants, posing possible issues for pension policies that index retirement age to life expectancy.Objective: To understand how mortality inequalities between migrants and non-migrants interact with the indexation of statutory retirement age in Denmark and Sweden.Methods: We used Danish and Swedish registry data from 1988–2018, and included individuals aged 50+. Migrants were classified as European-born or non-European-born. We calculated the probability of dying before retirement age, remaining life expectancy at retirement age, lifespan inequalities after retirement age, and the likelihood that a non-migrant would outlive a migrant. We also classified the Danish-born population into four income levels and compared them to migrant groups.Results: Non-European-born migrants had the survival advantage in both countries, but equal or higher lifespan inequality at retirement. Sweden had a proportionally larger migrant population, but Denmark’s was more diverse. The probability that a non-migrant would outsurvive a migrant was 40%–50% in both countries.Conclusions: The healthy migrant effect was observed in both Denmark and Sweden. Despite mortality advantages, migrants do not contribute to increasing life expectancy in Denmark or Sweden.Contribution: This study contributes to the literature on mortality differences between migrants and non-migrants in Scandinavia. The novel contributions of this paper are the consideration of the socioeconomic status of non-migrants in Denmark, and the calculation of probabilities that migrants will outsurvive non-migrants, all within the context of pension policy

Excess mortality and mortality from covid-19 in Sweden during 2020

The report presents mortality statistics at national and regional level, and also compares them with previous years. The aim of the report is to assess the impact of the pandemic on excess mortality in Sweden through aggregated data. The results show that life expectancy decreased by 0.69 years for men and 0.40 years for women in 2020 compared to 2019. This means that previous increases in life expectancy were reversed in 2020 and instead remained at the same levels as in 2017 for men and 2018 for women. As a basis for the report on mortality and excess mortality in different age groups, the IFFS has used Statistics Sweden's statistics on all deaths and the Public Health Agency of Sweden's statistics on deaths from COVID-19. The report was written by researchers working at IFFS and Stockholm University, who independently investigated how the death patterns were characterized in 2020

Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020: A demographic account

In this study, we provide an account of mortality levels in Sweden in 2020, focusing on both excess mortality and mortality due to COVID-19 deaths.We present various measures of life expectancy for women and men based on age-specific death rates in 2020. Our measures of excess mortality are based on comparisons with benchmarks derived from a previous mortality forecast for 2020 by Statistics Sweden and observed average mortality rates during 2017–2019. We present data on regional and seasonal variation in excess mortality, as well as estimates of Years of Potential Life Lost due to COVID-19. We decompose excess mortality in 2020 into excess mortality due to COVID-19 and excess mortality attributable to other causes. We also provide some estimates on the impact of excess mortality in 2020 on the remaining life expectancy for different cohorts of women and men in Sweden. We demonstrate that the impact of COVID-19 mortality was concentrated at higher ages, and among men in particular. Conversely, some younger age groups experienced negative excess mortality. The mortality changes during 2020 caused life expectancy levels to revert back to those observed in 2018 for women and in 2017 for men

Using population register data and capture-recapture models to estimate over-coverage in Sweden

Abstract Over-coverage occurs when individuals who reside in a country leave or pass away, and this demographic event is not recorded in population registers, leading to population size overestimation. This problem can have important policy and decision-making consequences. With the increased reliance on incomplete but overlapping official registers for documenting whole populations or subgroups of populations, there is a need for more sophisticated modelling techniques that reliably estimate population size, and hence over-coverage, from such registers. Previous approaches have considered multiple systems estimation (MSE) for monitoring over-coverage, but MSE does not naturally extend to cases where individuals are followed over time. In this paper, motivated by the case study of Sweden, we develop a capture-recapture (CR) modelling framework for population registers that allows us to estimate the population size each year, the probability of presence for each individual in the population, conditional on their records, each year and to quantify the effect of demographic characteristics on the probability of emigration and re-immigration, amongst other parameters. Our results suggest that the CR approach, which accounts for the whole time series for each individual, gives a more realistic estimate of the population size compared to existing, deterministic approaches, especially when considering the subgroup of newly arrived individuals, and that it provides new insights on individual behaviour in terms of migration patterns than existing MSE approaches