Fertility transition and the progression to third birth in Turkey

During the last two decades, Turkey entered into the last phase of its demographic transition. The latest nationwide Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) reveals that the current TFR is close to reproduction level, with a wide range of west-east regional disparity. The purpose of this study is to examine important determinants of third-birth intensities of two-child mothers by applying event-history analysis to retrospective survey data. Some of the basic socioeconomic characteristics of women and their first marriages – related to the cultural context of fertility behavior – are investigated with hazard regression models. We demonstrate that the third-birth intensities differ considerably by mother tongue of the woman. Turkish-speaking women who read easily and who were employed and covered by social security before their first marriage had the lowest transition rate from second to third child. In contrast, Kurdish women who could not read and who did not work had the highest third-birth risk. While the fertility decline among Turkish women has been constant for two decades, the fertility remains high among illiterate Kurdish women, who can be classified as laggards in the Turkey’s fertility transition.Turkey, family dynamics, fertility

Towards smaller family size in Egypt, Morocco and Turkey: overall change over time or socio-economic compositional effect?

The whole region of the South and East Mediterranean exhibits a profound fertility transition with marked differences in the pace of fertility declines among the countries. The authors choose three representative countries: Egypt, Morocco and Turkey. Determinants of the propensity towards smaller family size are investigated as scrutinizing the development in the pattern of third births, which represents the critical step in the transitional process for these countries. The authors are particularly interested in verifying whether the decline of higher-order births is significantly driven by an overall societal change over time or by compositional change over different socio-economic segments of the female population. Evidence is found that overall societal changes have mainly driven the decline in large family size, though, to a much lesser extent, compositional changes are important too.Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, childbearing, family size, fertility decline

A Comparative Analysis of Adolescent Fertility in Morocco, Egypt and Turkey

The present study aims to gain insights into trends and determinant factors of adolescent fertility in Morocco, Egypt and Turkey. The study uses Demographic and Health Surveys data to estimate the timing and determinants of first births among adolescent women after controlling for the effects of socioeconomic and cultural characteristics. Early marriage, low educational attainment of women, poor welfare status and high spousal age difference constitute the major factors facilitating adolescent childbearing. The findings suggest that policies and programs toward decreasing fertility during adolescence in these countries should also be directed to promote female education beyond the primary level. Also all types of reproductive assistance programs should have a husband dimension

Future Living Arrangement Preferences of Middle-Aged Individuals in Turkey

Turkey is swiftly transforming into an aging country due to its demographic dynamics. In Turkey predominant cultural values are “family-oriented”. Older individuals are traditionally taken care of by family and the community. Today, a majority of the older age population lives in family households. While significant proportions of older adults live with their child(ren), socie- tal change is altering co-residence patterns where older adults increasingly prefer to live independently (“Couples without resident children” or “One-person households”). We attempt to explore living arrangement preferences of middle-aged persons concerning their own old age. This study specifically intends to describe influences of family resources, socioeco- nomic status and cultural preferences on these preferences. Data is drawn from the ‘Research on Family Structure 2011’ survey. Multinomial Logistic Regression models are used to examine factors associated with older age living arrangement preferences. The analysis unit was individuals aged 50-59 who had at least one child. The findings show that individuals who have higher socioeconomic resources and have adopted more modern or secular attitudes are more likely to prefer ‘nursing home’ or ‘home care service’ options compared to ‘co-residence with children’. On the other hand, those who have family resources and have adopted more traditional attitudes are more prone to choose to co-reside with their children. Familial and socioeconomic resources and cultural tendencies significantly influence preferences for old-age living arrangement choices. Considering ongoing trends of population aging and societal changes, demands and expectations of individuals regarding old age living arrangements and care needs may turn out to be among the increasingly pressing issues Turkey will face over the next one to two decades