Splitting of liftings in products of probability spaces

We prove that if (X,\mathfrakA,P) is an arbitrary probability space with countably generated \sigma-algebra \mathfrakA, (Y,\mathfrakB,Q) is an arbitrary complete probability space with a lifting \rho and \hat R is a complete probability measure on \mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB determined by a regular conditional probability {S_y:y\in Y} on \mathfrakA with respect to \mathfrakB, then there exist a lifting \pi on (X\times Y,\mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB,\hat R) and liftings \sigma_y on (X,\hat \mathfrakA_y,\hat S_y), y\in Y, such that, for every E\in\mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB and every y\in Y, [\pi(E)]^y=\sigma_y\bigl([\pi(E)]^y\bigr). Assuming the absolute continuity of R with respect to P\otimes Q, we prove the existence of a regular conditional probability {T_y:y\in Y} and liftings \varpi on (X\times Y,\mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB,\hat R), \rho' on (Y,\mathfrakB,\hat Q) and \sigma_y on (X,\hat \mathfrakA_y,\hat S_y), y\in Y, such that, for every E\in\mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB and every y\in Y, [\varpi(E)]^y=\sigma_y\bigl([\varpi(E)]^y\bigr) and \varpi(A\times B)=\bigcup_{y\in\rho'(B)}\sigma_y(A)\times{y}\qquadif A\times B\in\mathfrakA\times\mathfrakB. Both results are generalizations of Musia\l, Strauss and Macheras [Fund. Math. 166 (2000) 281-303] to the case of measures which are not necessarily products of marginal measures. We prove also that liftings obtained in this paper always convert \hat R-measurable stochastic processes into their \hat R-measurable modifications.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009117904000000018 in the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The long-run relationship between consumption and housing wealth in the Eighth District states

Federal Reserve District, 8th ; Consumption (Economics) ; Housing

Forecasting real housing price growth in the Eighth District states

The authors consider forecasting real housing price growth for the individual states of the Federal Reserve's Eighth District. They first analyze the forecasting ability of a large number of potential predictors of state real housing price growth using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model framework. A number of variables, including the state housing price-to-income ratio, state unemployment rate, and national inflation rate, appear to provide information that is useful for forecasting real housing price growth in many Eighth District states. Given that it is typically difficult to determine a priori the particular variable or small set of variables that are the most relevant for forecasting real housing price growth for a given state and time period, the authors also consider various methods for combining the individual ARDL model forecasts. They find that combination forecasts are quite helpful in generating accurate forecasts of real housing price growth in the individual Eighth District states.Housing - Prices ; Federal Reserve District, 8th

On Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Preserving Convergence Rates to Equilibrium in Deterministically and Stochastically Perturbed Differential Equations with Regularly Varying Nonlinearity

This paper develops necessary and sufficient conditions for the preservation of asymptotic convergence rates of deterministically and stochastically perturbed ordinary differential equations with regularly varying nonlinearity close to their equilibrium. Sharp conditions are also established which preserve the asymptotic behaviour of the derivative of the underlying unperturbed equation. Finally, necessary and sufficient conditions are established which enable finite difference approximations to the derivative in the stochastic equation to preserve the asymptotic behaviour of the derivative of the unperturbed equation, even though the solution of the stochastic equation is nowhere differentiable, almost surely

Probing the Ionization State of the Universe at z>6

We present high signal-to-noise ratio Keck ESI spectra of the two quasars known to have Gunn-Peterson absorption troughs, SDSS J1030+0524 (z=6.28) and SDSS J1148+5251 (z=6.37). The Ly alpha and Ly beta troughs for SDSS J1030+0524 are very black and show no evidence for any emission over a redshift interval of ~0.2 starting at z=6. On the other hand, SDSS J1148+5251 shows a number of emission peaks in the Ly beta Gunn-Peterson trough along with a single weak peak in the Ly alpha trough. The Ly alpha emission has corresponding Ly beta emission, suggesting that it is indeed a region of lower optical depth in the intergalactic medium at z=6.08. The stronger Ly beta peaks in the spectrum of SDSS J1148+5251 could conceivably also be the result of "leaks" in the IGM, but we suggest that they are instead Ly alpha emission from an intervening galaxy at z=4.9. This hypothesis gains credence from a strong complex of C IV absorption at the same redshift and from the detection of continuum emission in the Ly alpha trough at the expected brightness. If this proposal is correct, the quasar light has probably been magnified through gravitational lensing by the intervening galaxy. The Stromgren sphere observed in the absorption spectrum of SDSS J1148+5251 is significantly smaller than expected based on its brightness, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the quasar is lensed. If our argument for lensing is correct, the optical depths derived from the troughs of SDSS J1148+5251 are only lower limits (albeit still quite strong, with tau(LyA)>16 inferred from the Ly beta trough.) The Ly beta absorption trough of SDSS J1030+0524 gives the single best measurement of the IGM transmission at z>6, with an inferred optical depth tau(LyA)>22.Comment: To appear in July 2003 AJ, 34 pages, 11 figures; minor changes/typos fixe

The Geoff Egan Memorial Lecture 2011. Artefacts, art and artifice: reconsidering iconographic sources for archaeological objects in early modern Europe

A first systematic analysis of historic domestic material culture depicted in contemporaneous Western painting and prints, c.1400-1800. Drawing on an extensive data set, the paper proposes to methodologies and hermeneutics for historical analysis and archaeological correspondence