9 research outputs found

    Emerging Economies Crises: Lessons from the 1990’

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    The paper examines the financial crises of the 1990s. They represent a new kind of crises, as they do not seem to conform to the so-called first generation and second generation literature on currency crises. The outburst of the Asian crises brought a new challenge for economic policy. The attention has been placed on the self-fulfilling character of the speculative attacks and microeconomic weaknesses. The first part of the paper reviews the recent theoretical literature on financial crises, the second part addresses some lessons for emerging economies. The authors consider the policies to manage financial crises and reduce the risks associated with them.financial crises, emerging markets, contagion

    Sub Prime Crisis: Old and New Lessons

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    Using generation approach we examine the genesis and mechanisms in major financial crisis and focus on the recent sub – prime crisis. We believe that in the era of increased financial globalization a reliable approach has to consider besides fundamental factors multiple equilibriums and self – fulfilling character of financial crises. In recent global crisis again financial globalization implemented in periods of high international capital mobility have reputedly produced international banking crises. Progressing integration and increasing sophistication of the product and financial markets brought new forms and more global character of the crises events in the recent sub – prime crisis.financial crisis, sub-prime crisis, financial globalization, international capital, financial market

    Pojasnjevalna moč modelov finančnih kriz

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    The paper explores the explanation power of financial crises models. We find that first generation models are inadequate, since they focus only on the role of economic and financial fundamentals. The main innovation of the second generation models lies in identifying the role that the expectations of the market agents may play in precipitating financial crises. We suggest that the actual global financial crisis fit into expanded version of the third generation, which is based on the notion of contagion where the mere occurrence of a crisis in one market increases the likelihood of a similar crisis elsewhere and a fact that financial crisis reveals weaknesses in bank business models, huge weakness in management of financial crises and shortcomings in the process of financial liberalization. The best way to address the biggest threat of huge, systematically significant financial institutions to financial system is by regulating, managing these institutions continuously and determination of clear procedures in a case of a crisis.Članek proučuje pojasnjevalno moč modelov finančnih kriz. Avtorja ugotavljata, da so modeli prve generacije kriz neustrezni, saj so koncentrirani samo na vlogo ekonomskih in finančnih fundamentalnih spremenljivk. Najpomembnejša novost modelov druge generacije je v pripoznavanju vloge pričakovanj tržnih subjektov pri pospeševanju finančnih kriz. Avtorja sugerirata, da je moč aktualno finančno krizo uvrstiti v razširjeno verzijo tretje generacije kriz, ki temelji na ideji okužbe, kjer že samo pojav krize na enem trgu poveča verjetnost podobne krize na drugih trgih ter dejstva, da finančna kriza razkrije slabosti v modelih poslovnega bančništva in managementa finančnih kriz ter slabosti v procesu finančne liberalizacije. Najboljši način reagiranja na največjo nevarnost, ki jo predstavljajo velike, sistemsko pomembne finančne institucije za finančni sistem je, njihovo kontinuirano reguliranje, management in vnaprej jasna pravila postopkov v primeru krize

    Personal Income Tax Reforms as a Competitive Advantage

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    In this paper we show features of the personal income taxation in Slovenia and some early reforms on it. The proposed tax reforms have the same origins as in any other developed economy - loss of competitive advantages of the economy. We present the process of reforming the tax system in Slovenia as it took place in recent years. We also analyze results of our simulation on different scenarios of personal income taxation in Slovenia. Finally, in the concluding section, we examine the results of introduced reforms and present our critical view.tax reform, fiscal sustainability, personal income tax

    A NONLINEAR EXTENSION OF THE NBER MODEL FOR SHORT-RUN FORECASTING OF BUSINESS CYCLES

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    To avoid the pitfalls of the widely used NBER model, in this paper we have adopted neural networks to forecast business cycles. We find that our model has overcome some of the main deficiencies of the classical leading indicators model: first, the model was able to correctly forecast all reference points in in-sample and out-of-sample data; second, the model can forecast the future value of reference series; and third, the model has a constant forecast horizon. Sensitivity analysis suggests there are some nonlinear relationships between the reference variable and selected leading indicators. This explains why we were able to improve the forecasting performance of the original model. Copyright 2005 Economic Society of South Africa.

    Behavioural patterns as determinants of market movements: evidence from an emerging market

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    This article aims to empirically support the hypothesis that behavioural patterns are key determinants of market movements. We developed a model for predicting market psychology which is based on the application of a self-organizing network algorithm. The estimated model is applied to a mechanical trading system, which independently adopts investment decisions based on the current daily data. The model was tested on the data for daily trading on the Slovenian stock market as an example of an emerging capital market. The performance of the model supports the suggested hypothesis.

    Cyclical patterns in aggregate economic activity of Slovene economy

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    This paper studies cyclic patterns in the Slovene economy with spectral analysis. It examines if the transition in Slovenia was marked by a statistically significant movement of aggregate economic activity, which corresponds to the definition of business cycle proposed by Mitchell and Burns (1946). It finds that in the period 1992–2000 a statistically significant cyclic component is present. The cyclic component oscillates with the frequency of 33.3 months. The results obtained in this paper suggest, that in the observed period two full-length cycles can be identified.

    Efficient Market Hypothesis in the Capital Market of a Small Transition Economy - Does It Hold?

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    A wavelet analysis of long-range dependence based on the Hurst exponent is presented in this paper. Numerical comparisons are made against traditional estimators of the exponent based on R/S analysis. The estimator is used to perform an analysis of the long-range dependence in the capital market of a small transition economy (Slovenia). Results of the study suggest that the efficient market hypothesis may not hold for the observed capital market. Furthermore, results also suggest that the estimation of the exponent is sensitive to the frequencies of the data employed and to the sample period. Additionally, the format of the time series has an important impact on the results

    The power of market mood -- Evidence from an emerging market

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    This article focuses on investor behavior and, consequently, the mood in the market. By using a self-organizing network we develop a model which tries to capture the market mood and serves as an indicator of the reasonableness of selling or purchasing securities. In this sense, the final result of this model is the same as in the model-type prediction of future stock prices, with the only exception being that one is not required to know the concrete future values of the selected security. This will indirectly support the hypothesis that psychological factors are an important (if not key) market driving force.Behavioral patterns Stock market Self-organizing map Investment decision
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